2024 Novice Chasers

[Lobos]

As a racing purist who wants to see horses jump, I’m a little bit peeved that Willie has cited age as the reason to go chasing with Fact To File. If it was such a problem, why not go bloody novice hurdling last season instead of pissing around in bumpers!

They've gone full circle with him, then done the same with Gaelic Warrior.............maybe there is hope yet that they'll see sense with Aurora Vega and send her Hurdling!!

[Lobos]

Surely if they’re going chasing with him it’s for the grade 1s. If he can’t jump or flops then it’ll be back to the stayers hurdle rather than the NH chase.

Always a possibility. Happened plenty of times. He's not one I'll be backing though for anything.

[Many Clouds]

Anyone out their backed Mister Policeman for the Turners and what are you thinking with the strong vibes seemingly pushing the Arkle price right in? Time to cash out? Or best to wait for the stable tour? Would be a nice free up of some funds to use elsewhere so I'm tempted.

[Odin]

Anyone out their backed Mister Policeman for the Turners and what are you thinking with the strong vibes seemingly pushing the Arkle price right in? Time to cash out? Or best to wait for the stable tour? Would be a nice free up of some funds to use elsewhere so I'm tempted.

I'd cash mine if I could. Surely Sharjah goes Turners for same owner-trainer combination? I'd be more of mindset that if MP disappoints, he doesn't go Cheltenham

[Brooksie]

With Flooring Porter travelling over to Cheltenham next week presumably going for the same NHC 'trial' race as Galvin and Chemical Energy, perhaps he's another to consider for the 4 miller ???

I actually like him for the BANCS. Feel like his front running style would suit better in that race more so than the 4 miler. The main stat to overcome is age, but in honesty, how many dual stayers winners have turned up for this. 20/1 is pretty fair in my opinion. Gavin mentioned he's already had plenty of schooling over fences even prior to his stayers wins. If he could jump as accurately over a fence as he did over hurdles he could get away from them if they were foolish enough to leave him out in front.

[Kautostar]

I actually like him for the BANCS. Feel like his front running style would suit better in that race more so than the 4 miler. The main stat to overcome is age, but in honesty, how many dual stayers winners have turned up for this. 20/1 is pretty fair in my opinion. Gavin mentioned he's already had plenty of schooling over fences even prior to his stayers wins. If he could jump as accurately over a fence as he did over hurdles he could get away from them if they were foolish enough to leave him out in front.

Name some horses that have spent as long as he has over hurdles that reached the same level or better over fences? It just doesn’t happen, he’ll win weak races over fences ….probably but he’ll be another thyme hill where they left it too late to switch codes. They are so used to jumping hurdles they aren’t capable of hitting the same heights over fences.

[Istabraq]

Name some horses that have spent as long as he has over hurdles that reached the same level or better over fences? It just doesn’t happen, he’ll win weak races over fences ….probably but he’ll be another thyme hill where they left it too late to switch codes. They are so used to jumping hurdles they aren’t capable of hitting the same heights over fences.

Yeah I don't get it.
The staying hurdle division is as weak as it's ever been and a duel winner of the race, who was clearly regressing last season, going novice chasing just doesn't make sense to me.
Then again it doesn't have to make sense to me, maybe there's a strategy and maybe I'll look foolish...

[Quevega]

Yeah I don't get it.
The staying hurdle division is as weak as it's ever been and a duel winner of the race, who was clearly regressing last season, going novice chasing just doesn't make sense to me.
Then again it doesn't have to make sense to me, maybe there's a strategy and maybe I'll look foolish...

I think you said it with Gaelic.
They can always revert back and it probably wouldn't hinder them too much. They'll have this in mind.
Both are fucking mental and hang one way or another, so fences will be risky anyway.

I haven't backed either of them, but I'd expect that either could still end up in the stayers, so not without hope for anyone who cannot get out of bets already placed.

[Brooksie]

Name some horses that have spent as long as he has over hurdles that reached the same level or better over fences? It just doesn’t happen, he’ll win weak races over fences ….probably but he’ll be another thyme hill where they left it too late to switch codes. They are so used to jumping hurdles they aren’t capable of hitting the same heights over fences.

The vast majority of horses that have spent 3 seasons or more hurdling that then go on to try chasing are inferior horses though. At least with Flooring Porter you know he is capable at championship level. If he was able to match his best over hurdles when switched to fences, that figure alone would be competitive enough to place in a BANCS. Yes he might hate jumping fences and he could be back over hurdles before the years out, but then again, he might love it. It can be done if the horse is good enough, Sizing Europe might be an example of that.

Not a massive fan of the Thyme Hill comparison, I think Thyme Hills inconsistencies are largely down to Hobbs being useless these days. That's coming from someone that was a big fan of his during the Fair Along days lol.

[FinalFurlong91]

Problem with porter is he is regressing and will be meeting horses at Cheltenham on a very different trajectory

He's also a complete nut job ala goshen and might just chuck it in after a mistake or two over fences

Definitely one I'd need to see jumping before contemplating a bet

[Kautostar]

So the example we have is Sizing Europe going all the way back to 2010 for his Arkle win aged 8…..flooring porter will be 9 coming off 25 runs over hurdles, sizing had 11 at that point. I think you can see my point here!
He’s going to be going up against loads of up and coming chasers who some of which will be improving, it’s highly unlikely flooring porter will be improving after spending all his career over hurdles and turning 9. I can’t have him at all.

[Lobos]

My way De Solzen won the Stayers on 2006 and then the Arkle the following season. It can be done but rare. Difference being though MWDS was aged 6/7

[Kautostar]

My way De Solzen won the Stayers on 2006 and then the Arkle the following season. It can be done but rare. Difference being though MWDS was aged 6/7

Thought we were going back far enough with Sizing Europe in 2010….enter Lobos haha

[Brooksie]

So the example we have is Sizing Europe going all the way back to 2010 for his Arkle win aged 8…..flooring porter will be 9 coming off 25 runs over hurdles, sizing had 11 at that point. I think you can see my point here!
He’s going to be going up against loads of up and coming chasers who some of which will be improving, it’s highly unlikely flooring porter will be improving after spending all his career over hurdles and turning 9. I can’t have him at all.

that's fine if you can't have him, it's a game of opinions after all. I'll admit Flooring Porter has had a fair amount of racing and that might be catching up with him. But completely writing off a horse that has won two championship races is a bit strange. He's 8 turning 9 and yes 9 year old's don't exactly have a great record in the novice chase ranks, but how many 9 year old's line up, and when they did line up what was their level of ability, did they even have much of a chance anyway regardless of age. I find it amusing that people will tout an 8 year old going into a gold cup season as being at the peak of their careers but couldn't have them in a novice chase.

[Istabraq]

Problem with porter is he is regressing and will be meeting horses at Cheltenham on a very different trajectory

Yep, this is bang on for me.
He started last season 164 OR and ended on 156.

His last two runs in 20/21 he earned RPRs of 167 and 168
His four runs from 21/22 he earned RPS of 166 three times and 165 once
His RPRs from 22/23 were 156, 158, 160 and 158 and ignoring his Auteuil run.

I dare say he's retained enough ability to win a couple of soft G2s but we need a huge leap of faith to think he can win a BANC...