2024 Novice Chasers

[Lobos]

Thats how I'd see it... If CC is ok for Cheltenham maybe let Mark Walsh ride him in the BANC I'd say he knows the horse better then Derek would.

That's what I think they'll do with CC. If he'd had completed/won with Codd up then I'd have said NHC but it unfortunately didn't work out. BANC wide open without F2F which obviously JP is in control of. Great position to be in. 3 very, very good rides for Walsh.

[Lobos]

I'd be very surprised if iroko ran in the arkle

He's 4 from 4 over mid trips
He's 0 from from 3 over 2 miles or 3 miles

He'll be fine. Jumps really well, quick and accurate and has plenty of pace and obviously stays further which can be a positive for the Arkle. If F2F goes Turners then he'll have no other option.

[ComplyOrDie]

Obviously plenty of related double lines to do with either Willies lot or JP's lot etc.... The fact the majority of bookmakers are now NRNB means playing any of them is safe enough now.

I remember a couple of years ago, there was some sort of consensus that JP doesn't have many Arkle runners, though he did have two in it last season and still failed to pick up the win.

Given Iroko is already a winner over 2m4f at the festival, albeit a handicap, I'd be of the belief he'd end up in the Turners over the Arkle.

I really like Fact To File, but his performance at the DRF was a nothing race because Gaelic is an absolute pig going left handed and he was pretty much handed the race because of this. I couldn't use this form to call Fact To File a weapon, or the like.

I do hope Fact To File ends up in the BANC, and have played some E/W doubles with both Iroko & Facile Vega in the Turners.

I'm probably doing an injustice to last seasons winning trainer of the Turners, in not getting Ginny's Destiny on side, however I do think Stage Star was given a bit of a freebie on the front end last year, and I'm not entirely convinced, despite the higher rating, that Ginny's Destiny will be able to replicate what Stage Star done. If it wasn't for Grey Dawning absolutely hammering the fence back in December, Ginny's Destiny would actually be 2 from 4 and not 3 from 4 at Cheltenham, and in a re-match I'd have Grey Dawning to come out on top, for sure. I also think the handicap chase Stage Star won last season was a bit better than the one Ginny's Destiny won this season. although the RPR's have them side by side in terms of performances.

[Irish Rugby]

He'll be fine. Jumps really well, quick and accurate and has plenty of pace and obviously stays further which can be a positive for the Arkle. If F2F goes Turners then he'll have no other option.

How many Festival novice chase winners have ever come to the race with just the single chase run/win? Not saying he can't win, but is that a negative? Genuinely asking.

[FinalFurlong91]

How many Festival novice chase winners have ever come to the race with just the single chase run/win? Not saying he can't win, but is that a negative? Genuinely asking.

It would be an enormous negative

Nice horse but couldn't have him on my mind as a viable bet

That golden sun he beat on chase debut is useless too

[Lobos]

How many Festival novice chase winners have ever come to the race with just the single chase run/win? Not saying he can't win, but is that a negative? Genuinely asking.

100% a negative.

[Quevega]

2 have won arkle off one run.

Champagne Fever & Well Chief

[Lobos]

Obviously plenty of related double lines to do with either Willies lot or JP's lot etc.... The fact the majority of bookmakers are now NRNB means playing any of them is safe enough now.

I remember a couple of years ago, there was some sort of consensus that JP doesn't have many Arkle runners, though he did have two in it last season and still failed to pick up the win.

Given Iroko is already a winner over 2m4f at the festival, albeit a handicap, I'd be of the belief he'd end up in the Turners over the Arkle.

I really like Fact To File, but his performance at the DRF was a nothing race because Gaelic is an absolute pig going left handed and he was pretty much handed the race because of this. I couldn't use this form to call Fact To File a weapon, or the like.

I do hope Fact To File ends up in the BANC, and have played some E/W doubles with both Iroko & Facile Vega in the Turners.

I'm probably doing an injustice to last seasons winning trainer of the Turners, in not getting Ginny's Destiny on side, however I do think Stage Star was given a bit of a freebie on the front end last year, and I'm not entirely convinced, despite the higher rating, that Ginny's Destiny will be able to replicate what Stage Star done. If it wasn't for Grey Dawning absolutely hammering the fence back in December, Ginny's Destiny would actually be 2 from 4 and not 3 from 4 at Cheltenham, and in a re-match I'd have Grey Dawning to come out on top, for sure. I also think the handicap chase Stage Star won last season was a bit better than the one Ginny's Destiny won this season. although the RPR's have them side by side in terms of performances.

Good point re Grey Dawning. I'm of the opinion that if F2F goes BANC then Grey Dawning will switch to the Turners because as you say, they'll be thinking they can reverse the defeat by Ginnys D. Grey Dawning a big price for Turners still. Too big. So many ifs and buts though.

[Big Bucks]

How many Festival novice chase winners have ever come to the race with just the single chase run/win? Not saying he can't win, but is that a negative? Genuinely asking.

Absolutely a negative, but I'm taking it as a positive as had plenty slips in the bin, but at least chance he might give me a run I'm happy enough!

[Runragged]

I'm probably doing an injustice to last seasons winning trainer of the Turners, in not getting Ginny's Destiny on side, however I do think Stage Star was given a bit of a freebie on the front end last year, and I'm not entirely convinced, despite the higher rating, that Ginny's Destiny will be able to replicate what Stage Star done. If it wasn't for Grey Dawning absolutely hammering the fence back in December, Ginny's Destiny would actually be 2 from 4 and not 3 from 4 at Cheltenham, and in a re-match I'd have Grey Dawning to come out on top, for sure. I also think the handicap chase Stage Star won last season was a bit better than the one Ginny's Destiny won this season. although the RPR's have them side by side in terms of performances.

I also think that the fact Stage Star took a similar route and won last year, has seen it factored in to Ginnys Destiny's price. Stage Star was more than double the price of Ginny at SP let alone what was available weeks before. I know this race will cut up significantly but if Stage Star hadn't of won last year then Ginny wouldn't be the price he is.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I think Ginnys is priced up on his performances and obvious improvement through the season.
Very good jumper and travelller.
Big player for sure

[Carnage at Taunton]

He'll be fine. Jumps really well, quick and accurate and has plenty of pace and obviously stays further which can be a positive for the Arkle. If F2F goes Turners then he'll have no other option.

He’s not ran since beginning November
And had setback
Probably all a bit late now I would think.

[charlie]

I think Ginnys is priced up on his performances and obvious improvement through the season.
Very good jumper and travelller.
Big player for sure

Breeding is savage, I bloody love Yeats as a sire.
Also, that Cheltenham experience is so valuable and worth chunks IMO.
We see it every year with these novices - handling cheltenham is more than half the battle won

[Odin]

[QUOTE=ComplyOrDie;n451507
I remember a couple of years ago, there was some sort of consensus that JP doesn't have many Arkle runners, though he did have two in it last season and still failed to pick up the win.
[/QUOTE]

He's had 4 Arkle runners since 2008:
2023: Jonbon (2nd), Saint Roi (3rd)
2020: Fakir Doudaries (2nd)
2013: Tap Night (5th of 7)

5 runners in the Turners in that timescale (which surprised me, thought he'd had more):
2021: Chantry House (1st)
2019: Defi Du Seuil (1st)
2018: Modus (8th of 9)
2015: Colour Squadron (8th of 8)
2013: Uxizandre (2nd)

7 runners in the RSA:
2022: Capodanno (4th)
2021: Dickie Diver (4th), Sporting John (F)
2020: Champ (1st)
2016: More of That (3rd)
2015: If In Doubt (5th)
2014: Carlingford Lough (6th)

[Benjy23]

If Grey Dawning or Stayawayfay (to a lesser extent) were to win the BANC on Wednesday then Ginnys Destiny would look good imo.

Having missed the price on GD I'm happy to agree with those saying he looks short ATM and see what happens in the BANC.