2024 Novice Chasers

[Odin]

He's 5/1 NRNB. That's an EW price. My list of likely runners is as follows:

• Fact To File (or potentially Facile Vega if FTF steps up in trip)
• Ginny's Destiny
• Gaelic Warrior
• Iroko (? - back from injury)
• American Mike (? -maybe handicap)
• Djelo
• Marble Sands (handicap mark surely blown)

I think an EW price about Gaelic (with money back if he doesn't turn up) in that market is very fair. I certainly don't think it's bonkers.

Agree with this, although I'd much rather be spending my money on Il Est Francais at 5/2 NRNB than Gaelic ew NRNB

[FinalFurlong91]

Will have happened a few times in the NHC

But struggling to remember any recent arkle/turner's/banc winners that didnt go there on the back of a win

I'm sure I'm probably missing one or two

Edit topofthegame is one I just thought of, got beat in the kauto star

[Lobos]

Agree with FF that Paul really should have pulled G Warrior up. The horse was Clearly done some way out but he must have been thinking prize money which could turn out a big mistake. IMO G Warrior will not make the trip now.

[TigerRolllllll]

Next season now I'd say. Everything this season has been geared towards Arkle so that's where he'll go.

What do u think Willie thinks his first string Arkle is? FV wasn’t far back at DRF….,I’m so not sure how he is likely to line up yet….but then maybe he isn’t either

[robith]

Since 2008 across all races, 909 bets, 39 won, +15.9 laying at BFSP.
Record is fairly similar across handicaps/non-handicaps.

Interestingly big profit on backing these horses last year +33.83 (only -1.78 laying)
And in 2022 you made profit backing (+4.73) and laying these horses (+0.5)!

elite skills

[Lobos]

What do u think Willie thinks his first string Arkle is? FV wasn’t far back at DRF….,I’m so not sure how he is likely to line up yet….but then maybe he isn’t either

Not sure he's got a first string this year. Three hopefuls. Looks a very poor Arkle.

[Odin]

Will have happened a few times in the NHC

But struggling to remember any recent arkle/turner's/banc winners that didnt go there on the back of a win

I'm sure I'm probably missing one or two

Edit topofthegame is one I just thought of, got beat in the kauto star

Gaillard Du Mesnil
Ravenhill, Samcro, Champ
Le Breuil, Topofthegame
Rathvinden, Presenting Percy
Tiger Roll

Bolded were favourites on their last runs

[Odin]

elite skills

horseracebase.com is excellent for stuff like that I've gotta say

[Exar Essay]

Gaillard Du Mesnil
Ravenhill, Samcro, Champ
Le Breuil, Topofthegame
Rathvinden, Presenting Percy
Tiger Roll

Bolded were favourites on their last runs

The man with the knowledge. Unreal stuff.

[Rooster Booster]

Not sure he's got a first string this year. Three hopefuls. Looks a very poor Arkle.

Yes for one year only it’s being renamed the Height O Fashion

[Carnage at Taunton]

He's 5/1 NRNB. That's an EW price. My list of likely runners is as follows:

• Fact To File (or potentially Facile Vega if FTF steps up in trip)
• Ginny's Destiny
• Gaelic Warrior
• Iroko (? - back from injury)
• American Mike (? -maybe handicap)
• Djelo
• Marble Sands (handicap mark surely blown)

I think an EW price about Gaelic (with money back if he doesn't turn up) in that market is very fair. I certainly don't think it's bonkers.

I thought we were talking about him winning?
I hadn’t thought of e/w
Not really my thing e/w at that price but i understand some like that.
End of the day, we all know his form and we can all make our minds up.
I’m happy with my view.

[Odin]

Not particularly definitive but definitely makes me think Facile Vega is going Turners...

https://twitter.com/ReinItInHR/statu...Fe0Qbxfyw&s=19

This is the only logical decision you've gotta say.

Il Etait Temps now a clear number one for Mullins for the Arkle I'd argue

[FinalFurlong91]

Gaillard Du Mesnil
Ravenhill, Samcro, Champ
Le Breuil, Topofthegame
Rathvinden, Presenting Percy
Tiger Roll

Bolded were favourites on their last runs

Nice work

5 in the NHC, 3 in the browns, 1 in the turners and 0 in the arkle then

Positive for stay away fay

Percy also got beat in open company before winning the race

Champ fell when going to bolt in so didnt really flop

Less so for those in the shorter races

[Brital]

A very left field poke here.

with the head of the Arkle a little confusing it may pay to look for a long odds ew shot.
right at the bottom of the market is Senecia who is 150/1 NRNB with B365.

his form on ground better than soft ties in very closely with Hercule de Seuil (beaten a neck and just over a length).
HdS beat Hunters Yarn last whos 6/1 here.

form of late on soft/heavy is rubbish (hence 150/1).

On usual Tuesday ground and a small field 150/1 could look very tasty, and could trade out for a guaranteed profit.

he’s entered in the 10up at Navan and any improvement might see his price tumble.
At any rate feels like a shot to nothing.

he’s also 1000/1 on BFEx for those brave enough.

[Carnage at Taunton]

He was one I was wondering about, but thought he stayed on very well against Nickle Back who was on some day out and they just gave too much rope too. Has anything been said about his target?

Don’t think anything’s been said, but watching his last run I would be surprised if he went Arkle.
He looked like he needed every inch of that and maybe more to my eyes.