2024 Novice Chasers

[Brooksie]

.....and not run/pull like a madman. I want to back him but just can't.

Yep settling might also be an issue lol. Serious engine though; to sit in behind Facile Vega and finish the way he did last Christmas was impressive, and when you think Inthepocket was 9 lengths back in 2nd that day and he's a fair bit shorter in the betting. Might be one to back after he's jumped a few tomorrow.

[Lobos]

Yep settling might also be an issue lol. Serious engine though; to sit in behind Facile Vega and finish the way he did last Christmas was impressive, and when you think Inthepocket was 9 lengths back in 2nd that day and he's a fair bit shorter in the betting. Might be one to back after he's jumped a few tomorrow.

Again though, not won or even troubled the judge in two visits to the Festival. Hard to imagine him winning there in March based on the bare facts.

[riccirich]

I have a bit of cover in both….so not talking with pocket ….but I don’t see case why he would go Browns?

- Attacks fences similar to GDC did as novice
- Ran in Ballymore & only 3m race is at Punch
- Browns more likely to leave mark on horse
- Browns has more jumps & is on a tight turning LH course, where as Turners course is much less so

I understand Willie loves bingo & could be influenced by other horses & going near time …,hence I want cover both ways on what looks best novice .. but if he were mine, I would 100% go Turners

I think the only real compelling reason amongst those that he could go for the turners is the first one, attacks fences similar to gdc and was also a bit buzzy at the weekend like gdc was, although that may have just been freshness, we'll know more after his next run.

As for the others, he did run in the ballymore, and was well beaten, and had his only race over 3m at punchestown, which was a very good winning performance.

Browns more likely to leave a mark on a horse is one of those phrases that's thrown around that I don't think has any factual reasons for it. Monkfish hasn't seemed right after it, but Bob olinger hasn't been right after the turners. We've seen minella indo and allaho finish as very tired horses in the race, which I'm sure some said at the time was going to "bottom them". They've since won a host of graded races between them including ryanairs and a gold cup. They also both ran in the Bartlett as novices, that should have left a mark on them too if your to believe some people who strongly believe these sort of things. Horses run over 3m+ every day of the week in testing conditions during the jumps season.

His jumping in the ballymore seemed fine last year on the same course, no obvious race losing veers to the right, he was just beaten by a horse with more speed on the day.

I think it's worth remembering that Mullins original plan was the BANC, and that they were apparently worried about the ballymore trip last year and thought his only chance was if the ground was soft to blunt the other horses speed. Those worries were stated even after a demolition job over 2m at tramore where there was similar talk of amazing sectionals and rprs in a nothing race just like the one last weekend, which makes me think that on probably better ground in March they'd be worried about the turners trip again and I'd say would be favoring sticking to the original plan. I think he'll have to be very very impressive in his next two runs for the turners to be the target, if it's just 1-2 length wins on soft ground at Xmas and drf then I think they'll revert to BANC again.

Edit: there might also be an issue with splitting the owners horses, sharjah is looking all over a mid trip horse, to my eye mister policeman also looked like he'd enjoy a step up too, if both of those are good enough to travel over then it probably makes Gaelic warrior to the turners a bit more unlikely.

[Brooksie]

Again though, not won or even troubled the judge in two visits to the Festival. Hard to imagine him winning there in March based on the bare facts.

True, but I don't think the track is a problem, just his inability to settle cost him any chance of winning, if they can figure that out this season it would increase his chances of being competitive. Big if though.

[SeanRock]

His 2nd to Impaire Et Passe might look half decent form on Sunday.

[Lobos]

It's not that GW was visibly jumping to the right in the Ballymore or Fred Winter it's the fact that he wants to go that way which is the problem. The Jockey is constantly fighting against him moving right and is having to work hard with the steering gear to do so. This obviously doesn't help both jockey or horse and both are using up valuable energy in the process. To the punters eye it may appear he's pretty straight but far from it. Very doubtful chasing will make any difference and I suspect Willie and co have tried every trick to correct him but if it was going to work it would have by now.

[jack1092]

I think the only real compelling reason amongst those that he could go for the turners is the first one, attacks fences similar to gdc and was also a bit buzzy at the weekend like gdc was, although that may have just been freshness, we'll know more after his next run.

As for the others, he did run in the ballymore, and was well beaten, and had his only race over 3m at punchestown, which was a very good winning performance.

Browns more likely to leave a mark on a horse is one of those phrases that's thrown around that I don't think has any factual reasons for it. Monkfish hasn't seemed right after it, but Bob olinger hasn't been right after the turners. We've seen minella indo and allaho finish as very tired horses in the race, which I'm sure some said at the time was going to "bottom them". They've since won a host of graded races between them including ryanairs and a gold cup. They also both ran in the Bartlett as novices, that should have left a mark on them too if your to believe some people who strongly believe these sort of things. Horses run over 3m+ every day of the week in testing conditions during the jumps season.

His jumping in the ballymore seemed fine last year on the same course, no obvious race losing veers to the right, he was just beaten by a horse with more speed on the day.

I think it's worth remembering that Mullins original plan was the BANC, and that they were apparently worried about the ballymore trip last year and thought his only chance was if the ground was soft to blunt the other horses speed. Those worries were stated even after a demolition job over 2m at tramore where there was similar talk of amazing sectionals and rprs in a nothing race just like the one last weekend, which makes me think that on probably better ground in March they'd be worried about the turners trip again and I'd say would be favoring sticking to the original plan. I think he'll have to be very very impressive in his next two runs for the turners to be the target, if it's just 1-2 length wins on soft ground at Xmas and drf then I think they'll revert to BANC again.

Edit: there might also be an issue with splitting the owners horses, sharjah is looking all over a mid trip horse, to my eye mister policeman also looked like he'd enjoy a step up too, if both of those are good enough to travel over then it probably makes Gaelic warrior to the turners a bit more unlikely.

The Ballymore with G1 winners behind and a possible 170 horse in front?

He won a 2m handicap off 143 on the snaff.

He won the same 3m race as Galopin, so i don't think there's that much difference to either really. WPM original plan for Galopin was the bANC too.

I also wouldn't be so sure about splitting Sharjah + GW. If GW is turning up in turners that at this stage could be very winnable i say he goes where he's most likely to win. Sharjah is 10 and anythings a bonus at this stage.

The one thing for me that would possibly worry them about the Turners is if he goes out with the zest he's shown left handed and doesn't look half as fluent/straight at his fences. They might think going over 3m and covering him up as the best option. Compared to attacking from the front a la Galopin.

[AaronLad]

Request a price FF. I'd be interested.

Turners 2024 and king george 2024 33/1

[Istabraq]

Not sure if it's been covered in any debate here but the distance is only one element, the course is the other.
A 2m Arkle on the Old course is a speed test really, of course there's a hill to climb but you're climbing it for about 1.5f less on the old course than you are on the new course.
A 3m BANC on the Old course is more a test of stamina because of the distance but don't run away with the idea this is a brutal race any longer, the presence of the new race means this will likely be a small field reasonably paced race
a 2.4m Turners on the New Course probably isn't far off a BANC in terms of what it takes out of a horse and the fact Mullins opted for this race with Galopin des Champs suggests that he views it similarly.

Personally I think he's a million to head to the Arkle, but then I'm still clinging to the hope that the chase experiment was all an elaborate plan to avoid graded animals before he reverts back to timber and wins a Stayers...

[SeanRock]

The one thing for me that would possibly worry them about the Turners is if he goes out with the zest he's shown left handed and doesn't look half as fluent/straight at his fences. They might think going over 3m and covering him up as the best option. Compared to attacking from the front a la Galopin.

They’d nearly have to cover him up against the rail in either race I’d have thought. Won’t get a proper gauge on that until the DRF though I suppose.

[Many Clouds]

I have GW backed in the BANC from early on and I'd say it's much more likely he goes down the turners route now which is a shame after his 3 mile win at Punchestown and Willie name checking him for the BANC.

Just one of those things, but he feels like he's easily Willie's best novice chaser and he's going to mind him like he did GDC and go that way with him as it worked well last time, assuming that if all goes well this year that the GC is the aim for Gaelic next year.

Always a chance there is a change of heart but from what he said about possibly even going down in trip it doesn't look likely at all he's going to the BANC.

Gutted about getting a good price for the wrong race after having the feeling he would go chasing rather than the Stayers hurdle, but that's the mullins bingo life we live.

[riccirich]

The Ballymore with G1 winners behind and a possible 170 horse in front?

He won a 2m handicap off 143 on the snaff.

He won the same 3m race as Galopin, so i don't think there's that much difference to either really. WPM original plan for Galopin was the bANC too.

I also wouldn't be so sure about splitting Sharjah + GW. If GW is turning up in turners that at this stage could be very winnable i say he goes where he's most likely to win. Sharjah is 10 and anythings a bonus at this stage.

The one thing for me that would possibly worry them about the Turners is if he goes out with the zest he's shown left handed and doesn't look half as fluent/straight at his fences. They might think going over 3m and covering him up as the best option. Compared to attacking from the front a la Galopin.

The grade 1 winner he beat by a length is rated 149, and the possible 170 horse (currently rated 160) beat him by just under 7 lengths with ease. Imo that makes him grade 1 standard over that trip at Cheltenham, but not top class. I think his win at punchestown after Cheltenham when stepped up to 3m to win a grade 1 by 10 lengths was by far his best performance, and at 3m I think he will be top class.

I don't know if Mullins original plan was BANC for gdc either, I remember Patrick saying BANC and people assuming it because he won over 3m at punchestown, but I don't remember Mullins himself going out of his was to say it was the target as much as he has this year with Gaelic warrior up until the weekend.

As for sharjah I'd agree that I don't see him as a festival winner in March at the moment, but he's still going strong and putting in good performances, and if he wins the drinmore they'll start thinking of him as a serious player, and like I said there's still plenty of time for mister policeman to improve especially upped in trip which Mullins mentioned himself a few days ago too.

And yeah if they went for turners you'd imagine they'd want to make use of his stamina, but that would mean being ridden prominent and risking his jumping becoming erratic, or else having another stable runner setting a good gallop for him so he can drop in and cover up. If they didn't take the second option they risk the race being dictated to them like it was last season with appreciate it.

[Lobos]

Even if they came out and said BANC he'd still be entered for everything just in case it came up a deep ground festival. That could see him revert to the Turners or the Arkle. I've just taken 1,000,000/1 about him for the Arkle with Ista. He's now shitting himself.

[Lobos]

Someone pointed out how quick and low he was over his fences. Brilliant to watch and wins you lengths but if you get one a tad wrong you are gone.

[Lobos]

Trainer says that John Francombe chase leading fancy Nickle Back will NOT be going back to Cheltenham again as he got so upset the last time he went there.