2024 Novice Hurdlers

[PresentingPercy]

Mullins told Sporting Life: "Mystical Power will run in the Sky Bet Supreme and Ballyburn, all being well, will run in the Baring Bingham.

"Paul Townend will probably ride Tullyhill in the Supreme."

Paul expected to be on Readin Tommy Wrong in the Albert Bartlett according to a Betfair preview that Daryl Jacob was on today

[Quevega]

Wanky??!!

I bet some would chew my hand off for 4/1 Ballyburn and 6/1 Tullyhill TWAR now. Same applies to Gaelic, Vega, FTF and many others. Lower prices at outset yeah but Imagine being sat in your armchair in your dressing gown and slippers, smoking your pipe and just laughing at everyone on here panicking over the last few months where these were going to turn up. It'll definitely be my first port of call for nearly every Novice Hurdlers/Chaser next year.

Some might, I agree.
But most of those any race prices are poor value.
You'd have got better prices NRNB on all of those this season. for example.

But, there is a lot to be said for not having to think about things as much. Can't disagree with that.

[Lobos]

Some might, I agree.
But most of those any race prices are poor value.
You'd have got better prices NRNB on all of those this season. for example.

But, there is a lot to be said for not having to think about things as much. Can't disagree with that.

Doesn't float everyone's boat but there are some gems out there early doors which you really haven't a clue where they'll end up. Think I'll do a thread next year then people can make their own minds up.

[Speedy17]

I think Billericay Dickie still being in the Gallagher is interesting... Mullins has said all along he doesn't think he's ready for Cheltenham etc etc, took him out of the Supreme yesterday, and I fully expected him to be pulled today, but he's left him in there. Why? Unless he's going to run. He must be working well enough to keep him in. I'd be very interested in him each way on the day, not sure who will ride him, maybe Danny? Obviously don't think he'll beat Ballyburn but he's definitely interesting!

[Carnage at Taunton]

David Casey fairly adamant he goes Baring Bingham at last nights preview I was at. Made me cash all my Supreme vouchers off the back of it

Thanks Percy
Ive backed him for BB, but have now covered Sup nrnb with the news on Ballyburn.
Still think he will go BB but just in case.

[Quevega]

I think Billericay Dickie still being in the Gallagher is interesting... Mullins has said all along he doesn't think he's ready for Cheltenham etc etc, took him out of the Supreme yesterday, and I fully expected him to be pulled today, but he's left him in there. Why? Unless he's going to run. He must be working well enough to keep him in. I'd be very interested in him each way on the day, not sure who will ride him, maybe Danny? Obviously don't think he'll beat Ballyburn but he's definitely interesting!

He has left 13 in the race though.

[Dandrew99]

Does anybody know if Anotherway is planned to come over? My guess would be not with Mistergif in the same ownership.

[charlie]

Mullins told Sporting Life: "Mystical Power will run in the Sky Bet Supreme and Ballyburn, all being well, will run in the Baring Bingham.

"Paul Townend will probably ride Tullyhill in the Supreme."

Obvious MP is the stable number 1 now. Tullyhill can do one, place lay for me

[Big Bucks]

Doesn't float everyone's boat but there are some gems out there early doors which you really haven't a clue where they'll end up. Think I'll do a thread next year then people can make their own minds up.

It's being selective and picking the right one(s) I would tip my hat off to those who make a decent profit on doing it. I think its alot harder than you are making it out to be imo. Like specific races, bookies give nothing away, Bar the odd one that slips through the net at decent odds in the twar market.

Just even using Ballyburn as an example all well and good saying the 4s TWAR was value, but im sure those on 16s down on him Ballymore are pretty smug themselves with their slips.

Would be interesting if you did keep an open book on it next season and measure your success on it. I wish you well.

[Lobos]

The thing is they may have backed at 16's Ballymore but had to proper sweat it out. Some may have cashed in under the strain because of comments from connections. Some may have backed for Supreme and Albert as well and would lose out if not able to cash for full stakes back. There's no limits in TWAR either so you can have a proper go at it. Nothing stopping you from backing TWAR and having a guess at where they might end up and back that as well. It's just another option. The Yellow Clay 16/1, Iroko 14/1, Brighterdaysahead 10/1. Plenty of value there. As I say not everyone's cup of tea.

[Big Bucks]

The thing is they may have backed at 16's Ballymore but had to proper sweat it out. Some may have cashed in under the strain because of comments from connections. Some may have backed for Supreme and Albert as well and would lose out if not able to cash for full stakes back. There's no limits in TWAR either so you can have a proper go at it. Nothing stopping you from backing TWAR and having a guess at where they might end up and back that as well. It's just another option. The Yellow Clay 16/1, Iroko 14/1, Brighterdaysahead 10/1. Plenty of value there. As I say not everyone's cup of tea.

These are better examples you have given imo. As would be a question I would ask, what would be the cut off price for a TWAR price to back. As if it was X amount of 4/1 you would really need to hit quite a few of them to be in the green. For example for every 5 you do you need 2 winners to win? (At this price)

It's not everyone's cup of tea, I do them myself BTW, so not fully knocking it, I just find it very difficult to be selective and would like to hear yours and others thoughts on what price would they cut it off at, and would they say have a target amount of them throughout the season.

Sorry I'm waffling a bit, but I just wanted to make my opinion on the market and want others to be scepptical about it and not think its easy and striaght forward. There is alot of factors to take in, and of course so is ante post as a whole for specific races.

If it works for you, brilliant keep at it, as we are on the same side, and i hope all members have something that works for them.

Anyway I'm getting about gitty and agitated haha roll on next week!

[AaronLad]

Willie might run 6 ? I'd say 5 at least. And most will be kept well out of the way.
Henderson threatened to run all three of his, but I'd say that's unlikely now.

Same as those that said ground would play a part, I think this might not be as much of a factor now for horses like Gidleigh and Captain Teague. More likely to go Bartlett no matter what IMO.

I'm not sure Harry Fry will be basing his decision solely on ballyburns confirmation for the Ballymore.

The last thing he wants to do is run Gidleigh park on soft ground over 3miles (in a festival grade 1) for the first time.

Do you really believe he'd take a risk of taking a backward step, when you consider this horses potential over fences? Which he has spoken of.
There's always the 3mile grade 1 at Aintree which I think would be the appropriate time to step up in trip.

[Carnage at Taunton]

The thing is they may have backed at 16's Ballymore but had to proper sweat it out. Some may have cashed in under the strain because of comments from connections. Some may have backed for Supreme and Albert as well and would lose out if not able to cash for full stakes back. There's no limits in TWAR either so you can have a proper go at it. Nothing stopping you from backing TWAR and having a guess at where they might end up and back that as well. It's just another option. The Yellow Clay 16/1, Iroko 14/1, Brighterdaysahead 10/1. Plenty of value there. As I say not everyone's cup of tea.

Antepost is all about sweating and trying to find big prices and the right race for horses
I would not have it any other way personally, it’s a major part of my festival enjoyment…. win or lose.
Having said that, I do look at any race prices but nearly always find myself not liking the prices.
No way would I ever take 4/1 on a novice hurdler !!

[Speedy17]

He has left 13 in the race though.

Appreciate that Q, but the fact he pulled him from Supreme and left him in this is what interested me the most.

[Quevega]

I'm not sure Harry Fry will be basing his decision solely on ballyburns confirmation for the Ballymore.

The last thing he wants to do is run Gidleigh park on soft ground over 3miles (in a festival grade 1) for the first time.

Do you really believe he'd take a risk of taking a backward step, when you consider this horses potential over fences? Which he has spoken of.
There's always the 3mile grade 1 at Aintree which I think would be the appropriate time to step up in trip.

Where we going with this ?
Because running a horse over 3 miles on soft isn’t something that I’d be concerned with.
If Harry is that’s his choice.
Not a fan of the whole ruin horses mantra myself.
If someone is that way inclined then maybe the sports not for them ? IMO
it’s very difficult to really tell for sure if one racecourse experience has ruined a horses career or not.
The apparent lack of success could be for a variety of reasons.