2024 Novice Hurdlers

[Lobos]

Large Hill....

"We might look at him going to Cheltenham but maybe not. Sometimes when we stay back for the Michael Purcell we have thought of going to maybe Fairyhouse and Punchestown and we'll probably go that route but I'll have a word with Simon and Isaac (Munir and Souede, owners) and see what they want to do.
"Big strong horse. Looks like one you'd want to be going over fences with next year and looking forward to that.

[ComplyOrDie]

Gidleigh Park last matched @ 55's for the Ballymore, but 13.5 for the Bartlett.

Likely decision made?

I've not hung around, and cashed anyway!

[Exar Essay]

Gidleigh Park last matched @ 55's for the Ballymore, but 13.5 for the Bartlett.

Likely decision made?

I've not hung around, and cashed anyway!

Yes, it looks a big old move and plenty in behind looking to lay. I am surprised as if this weather continues, the Ballymore has to stay in their thinking you'd say.

[Benjy23]

You've really got to want to see it but... Front three in the Dovecote a boost for Jeriko

[Quevega]

You've really got to want to see it but... Front three in the Dovecote a boost for Jeriko

You'd think he'd deserve an upgrade of about 7lb, won't do him any harm.

[Carnage at Taunton]

You've really got to want to see it but... Front three in the Dovecote a boost for Jeriko

Well that’s what normally happens, see no reason why that should not apply for JDR
Still, nice to talk about actual track performances and form.

[Madmoose]

If Ballyburn diverts to the BB I wouldn’t be shocked to see Jeriko improve plenty for a strongly run Supreme in a weak edition.

[Craigy14]

If Ballyburn diverts to the BB I wouldn’t be shocked to see Jeriko improve plenty for a strongly run Supreme in a weak edition.

Agree, that last race was a doddle on good ground on a flat track. Was about 12 seconds slower than standard so shows how slow they went through the first mile or so at least.

[DenmanSacre]

Not too much discussion around the Albert Bartlett, which is currently 7/1 the field. My record isn't great in it (3 winners since 2010 but the winners are usually decent priced in this).

Trends:

•13/19 1st or 2nd in a grade 2 last time, with 17/19 placing in graded class within the season(the two not being Mullins' Monkfish and The Nice Guy). 15/19 1st or 2nd last time in any class.

•10/13 had won or placed over 2m7+ prior to the festival.

•10/14 BHA rated 140+ - Minella Indo and The Nice Guy didn't have a rating.

•16/19 3+ hurdle runs, yet last 2 only had 2 runs and 1 run prior to winning and the other was Minella Indo with 2 runs.

•8/12 won a PTP.

•The Irish have a great record in this, as with all novice hurdles.

•Nathaniel Lacy runners ran well here - Minella Cocooner, Vanillier, Sandor Clegane, Latest Exhibition, Fury Road etc.

•The Limerick race at Xmas can be a good pointer as well. In the UK, the River Don, the Classic and Bristol Novice hurdles have been pointers to this.

I like to see horses tested before the Albert Bartlett, even if that means they've lost in the season.

Contenders

High Class Hero - I'd say he will be Paul's mount a d Willies recent record decent in this, with Penhill, Monkfish and The Nice Guy winning. 2 of those not the first string on the day however. No bumper win, been been beating trees, not raced over 2m7+ and not yet ran in graded class. Not for me.

Dancing City - won the Nathaniel Lacy over 2m6.5 on soft and looks like he will relish a further step up. Been racing on softer ground this season but good bumper form on good/yielding. May be rated by the BHA at 152+ (rated in Ireland at 151) - of 5 runners rated 152+, 3 have won. Got the experience and been in some decent races. Meets a lot of trends and should be outright fav for me. 7/1 available NRNB or 8/1 antepost, which is slightly better than his exchange price.

Readin Tommy Wrong - I don't think he comes here but respected on the Lawlors form. I'm less keen on that form as I just don't rate IA and Firefox bombed out. Not raced beyond 2m4. Not very experienced. One I'd (reluctantly) be against if he turned up.

Gidleigh Park - looks like he is coming here now which is a shame as I thought he'd have a decent chance in the BB. I'm not sure he'd settle in the AB. Very talented and one I'm looking forward to seeing in the BANC next year. Won the Classic Novice hurdle at Cheltenham over 2m5 last time but I think it has a finishing speed of nearly 110% so not a stamina test and much more of a speed test than he'd want (and probably see even in a BB so he did well to win). Not for me in this race but he looks to have a good future.

Shanagh Bob - not very experienced (but recent showings have shown that doesn't particularly matter). Won over 3m at Cheltenham in graded class but wasn't massively convincing. Kerryhill came out next time and won the River Don but the 2nd disappointed in the next race. Looks a dour stayer though. Only rated 134 but that didn't stop SAF. Henderson's recent record hasn't been great but you'd think he'll be finishing well. Just not sure he has the tactical speed of some of the others and can Mahler get a second Cheltenham winner.

Captain Teague - grade 1 winner and grade 2 placed. Good bumper horse and won a PTP. Rated over 140 but not been over 3m yet. That grade 1 win was on horrendous ground so wisely left off the racecourse since then. Sires by Doyen means a massive cross through him for me.

Lecky Watson - placed in the Lawlors, placed in another grade 2 behind Slade Steel and won his maiden over 2m7. Good run in the bumper last year. I can see why some people might like him but I don't like his jumping and not sure it can be relied on to keep him where he wants to be through the race. Wouldn't surprise me though if he got close here but I don't think his price is particularly appealing when he might be the Mullins 4th choice.

Croke Park - I do like this horse but this might not be the test he wants just yet. Will be a lovely chaser though. Elliott's record isn't great here either.

Answer to Kayf - doubt he will turn up here (unless someone has heard different but the price on the exchange tells us this is unlikely) but I like him. Hopefully see him in the Martin Pipe off a nice mark.

Chapeau De Soleil - nice pedigree for this but he just isn't very good.

Johnnywho - Jonjo when sending one here has a great record - 2/2. I still wouldn't like him for this.

My Trump Card - doubt he's good enough. Form of his hurdle races aren't great. Could be better for a step up in trip but it would need to be a decent increase in ability to be competitive here.

Mercurey- doubt he comes here and wouldn't think a step up in trip of a mile would be what he wants.

Search for Glory - second season novice with lots of experience. We've also seen second season novices win this previously. Ran no race in this last year though, but a lot of Elliott's were poor last festival. Ran in the key Irish trials at Limerick (wasn't suited by the slow pace but comes out best at the weights) and the Clonmel novice where he gave 6 pounds to a 142 (now 141) rated horse. Best effort to date but jumping isn't always great. Should be rated above 140 by the BHA. Also in the Martin Pipe so they may send him there or not take him to Cheltenham but I think he wants the 3m. 20/1 the best at the moment NRNB (over 40s win only on the exchange) but doubt he will move much between now and the start but could be an ok each way angle. Wasn't mentioned in the RP stable tour.

The Jukebox Man - can't see why he'd be able to turn around form with Captain Teague. Not for me.

Better Days Ahead - Martin Pipe.

Welcom to Cartries - won't run if Captain Teague does. Looks like a stiff 3m could suit and finished 2nd in the River Don. I doubt he's as good as Stay Away Fay though.

Stellar Story - Elliott stable tour says here. Ran well at Limerick in what ended up a sprint. DRF run was meh. Banking on improvement up in trip. I'd like to see them be a bit more patient with him at Cheltenham and not leading or fighting for the lead. Has some back class with his bumper win over IA and Caldwell Potter. 33/1 NRNB each way wouldn't be the worst price and I wouldn't be surprised to see him still there 2 out.

I don't think it's worth mentioning any of the others as I can't see them having the ability to be within 20 lengths of some of the above.

Dancing City for me should be clear favourite. I don't mind if Paul or Danny rides as they've got experience winning over course and distance, either through the Albert Bartlett or the Stayers. 7/1 still more than fair and I can see him being a fair bit shorter at the off.

[Istabraq]

Johnnywho - Jonjo when sending one here has a great record - 2/2. I still wouldn't like him for this.

I've watched the Challow back about a hundred times and this is the one I take from the race every time.
Looks to have been crying out for 3m to me, was done for speed on Trials Day, the stiff 3m in the Potato I think will suit him.
I was waiting to see if they would pitch him in one of the late Pertemps qualifiers, the fact they didn't tells me they believe him to be better than a handicap,
I've just taken the 25/1 with Unibet, no NRNB insurance but I'd like to think know this is his race...

[DenmanSacre]

I've watched the Challow back about a hundred times and this is the one I take from the race every time.
Looks to have been crying out for 3m to me, was done for speed on Trials Day, the stiff 3m in the Potato I think will suit him.
I was waiting to see if they would pitch him in one of the late Pertemps qualifiers, the fact they didn't tells me they believe him to be better than a handicap,
I've just taken the 25/1 with Unibet, no NRNB insurance but I'd like to think know this is his race...

Shorter on the exchange currently so you'd say he's likely to turn up. Jonjo's record is great in this so he only sends those he thinks has a right chance. I think I'd prefer him not to have gone to Cheltenham last time though. That Challow was hard work but Jonjo knows the horse.

He stayed on well in the Challow but it's difficult to see him reversing form with Captain Teague and the Irish challenge looks stronger again.

[That Horse]

I've watched the Challow back about a hundred times and this is the one I take from the race every time.
Looks to have been crying out for 3m to me, was done for speed on Trials Day, the stiff 3m in the Potato I think will suit him.
I was waiting to see if they would pitch him in one of the late Pertemps qualifiers, the fact they didn't tells me they believe him to be better than a handicap,
I've just taken the 25/1 with Unibet, no NRNB insurance but I'd like to think know this is his race...

Interested to know your thoughts on how he would reverse the form with Captain Teague, if the good captain turns up in this race mind.

I'd say your safe without the nrnb insurance, any time he's been talked up this year, it's usually been related to the AB.

[Exar Essay]

I’d say that 17/19 placing in graded stat is pretty much key. The two exceptions are obvious in respect of quality (Monkfish) or unique campaigning (TNG). I can’t see any obvious reasons to allow an exception this year so will be paying attention to it when whittling the list down. That does appear to exclude Johnnywho …

[Istabraq]

Interested to know your thoughts on how he would reverse the form with Captain Teague, if the good captain turns up in this race mind.

I'd say your safe without the nrnb insurance, any time he's been talked up this year, it's usually been related to the AB.

As I said, I just see Johnnywho as a proper stayer, 3m looks perfect for him and he hasn’t shown that on a racecourse yet, I really do think there’s plenty of improvement to come from the step up…

[Rooster Booster]

As I said, I just see Johnnywho as a proper stayer, 3m looks perfect for him and he hasn’t shown that on a racecourse yet, I really do think there’s plenty of improvement to come from the step up…

100% agree with this. I’m finally getting to understand how to navigate through the clues, deceptions, misinformation and the like where joj is concerned and am fully expecting a proper performance from this chap.