2024 Novice Hurdlers

[Quevega]

He'd be a certainty in the ballymore that's where I'd be running him

Hed outstay the other speed horses and outspeed the other stayers

In a normal Supreme he'd be vulnerable to something with a turn of foot but we've not really seen anything with rock solid form that could definitely be that one

Mystical power only beat jigoro

And Jeriko du hypejobonet was rubbish last time

He would probably win either but I'd be more confident on his chances in the ballymore

Especially since he's already beaten the fav Slade steel by 7 lengths

See - this is the thing.

So many say that the turn of foot is what serves the Ballymore so well.
Because they generally don't go the same pace as they do in the supreme.

And the supreme suits something with pace and stamina. Not always speed.
He definitely has the pace and the stamina. Most of all the class.

It all depends on how the race is run, but Willie is not daft and if he chooses to run in the Supreme, then Townend just needs to get the fractions right, if he goes too slow then I'd say he might be vulnerable, but even then in this field I'm not so sure the danger is there, aside from Firefox.

The supreme being the first race of the festival is more often strongly run than the Ballymore. Although not guaranteed of course.

If you know you have the best horse then it's an easier race to bomb from the front end.
The Ballymore is much harder to do that, so the pace they go is often not as controllable.

[Carnage at Taunton]

He'd be a certainty in the ballymore that's where I'd be running him

Hed outstay the other speed horses and outspeed the other stayers

In a normal Supreme he'd be vulnerable to something with a turn of foot but we've not really seen anything with rock solid form that could definitely be that one

Mystical power only beat jigoro

And Jeriko du hypejobonet was rubbish last time

He would probably win either but I'd be more confident on his chances in the ballymore

Especially since he's already beaten the fav Slade steel by 7 lengths

There’s not anything definite that we’ve seen thus far that he could be vulnerable to in the Supreme I agree, but that’s why the odds are as they are or at least part of that imo.
But it’s definitely possible there may be on the day, if certain horses get their favoured conditions.
He was a good winner last time over 2m but imo the only horse behind him that’s shown the capability of producing a turn of foot was DDL when he ran on better ground.
Im convinced on decent ground that there will be horses turning up capable of producing a performance to make Ballyburn vulnerable.
I also think we will see a different JDR than we’ve seen thus far.
Yes, of course Ballyburn could simply just be better than the lot of them in the Supreme,and if he is fair enough.

I would be more confident also about his chances in the Ballymore.

[archie]

After the stable tours, my two main takeaways were:
- Gordon said Firefox was below par and scoped badly at Naas. They expect an improved performance in the Supreme.
- Willie did exactly as I'd hoped and left options wide open for Ballyburn while tilting heavily towards the Supreme for Mystical Power.

On that basis, I'd be even more expectant that Ballyburn will go to the Ballymore but the clincher for me is his breeding. By Flemensfirth out of an Old Vic mare just screams stamina. His 2 mile form probably already makes him the best 2 mile hurdler by the sire and he is most likely to be better over further. He has several full siblings who are all best at 2m6f or further.

They can't be sure that he can turn round the form with a fully firing Firefox who will surely force the pace but they seem to have the BB field covered. Of course, this is just where we are now and is exactly why no decision will be made until the last minute.

[FinalFurlong91]

Doesn't really bother me too much tbf

I have him for both races, albeit a few points bigger in the ballymore

But I'd probably rather he ended up Supreme as my only other bet still live in that race is jeriko and his form is miles off Supreme level as it stands

Whereas in the ballymore I have Slade steel and Gidleigh Park. Those two, mainly slade steel, have a better chance of winning than jeriko so it fits my book he goes Supreme.

I'd just think he'd need a klassical dream type ride in the Supreme and If a rag takes him on for the lead it could scupper his chances.

Whereas in the ballymore they could lead if needsd or preferably just sit in behind and take it up between the last and 2nd last.

One I am considering adding is predators gold in the ballymore. He has a 2nd in a 2 mile grade 1 which i like for a ballymore and was simply too keen in the nathaniel lacy.

I really don't like ile atlantiques finishing efforts. Dont think he will like the hill at all and would need to be played very late as otherwise something will pick him up on the run in.

I'd favour predators gold over him myself, but then I'd be hoping Danny was on him not Patrick (after his ride on gaelic last year when he had an easy opportunity to take impaires track position mid race but didn't I don't trust him to be beating the stable first string at cheltenham)

And reading Tommy wrong should be in the bartlett and will be too slow unless they go a mad gallop.

It's a shame big gordo lost Caldwell potter as he'd be a huge player.

Anyway iv been rambling on too long

[FinalFurlong91]

After the stable tours, my two main takeaways were:
- Gordon said Firefox was below par and scoped badly at Naas. They expect an improved performance in the Supreme.
- Willie did exactly as I'd hoped and left options wide open for Ballyburn while tilting heavily towards the Supreme for Mystical Power.

On that basis, I'd be even more expectant that Ballyburn will go to the Ballymore but the clincher for me is his breeding. By Flemensfirth out of an Old Vic mare just screams stamina. His 2 mile form probably already makes him the best 2 mile hurdler by the sire and he is most likely to be better over further. He has several full siblings who are all best at 2m6f or further.

They can't be sure that he can turn round the form with a fully firing Firefox who will surely force the pace but they seem to have the BB field covered. Of course, this is just where we are now and is exactly why no decision will be made until the last minute.

Exactly my thinking archie

His breeding screams at him being better over further

And he's got the 2nd fav for the ballymore well beaten already

Be interesting to see which way willie goes

May be the same as klassical dream, decent ground ballymore, soft ground supreme.

[ComplyOrDie]

I wonder where Mistergif ranks for Willie.

I've just had a little bit more on him E/W @ 25's, NRNB.

I quite liked his performance at Limerick, the same race State Man won before going to the County Hurdle. I don't think a handicap will be an option for Mistergif, as he still needs one more run and is running out of time.

State Man recorded a RPR of 133 that day, Mistergif ended up with 134.

State Man then went on to produce a performance that earnt him a RPR of 151 in the County Hurdle, and in hope that Mistergif may be able to follow along the same sort of trajectory, he could put in a performance plenty good enough to place. This is dependant on what turns up of course, but should Ballyburn end up in the BB then it would massively increase Mistergifs chances of hitting the places. I'm already on at 33's but I think he could probably go beyond what Mystical Power has achieved to date, so 25's still appeals to me.

I've likened the race to that of the year Appreciate It won it, and that year the double green were unlucky not to hit the places with Blue Lord (fell), and Willie's also rans can run into the places behind the yard number one.

[darlojim]

I wonder where Mistergif ranks for Willie.

I've just had a little bit more on him E/W @ 25's, NRNB.

I quite liked his performance at Limerick, the same race State Man won before going to the County Hurdle. I don't think a handicap will be an option for Mistergif, as he still needs one more run and is running out of time.

State Man recorded a RPR of 133 that day, Mistergif ended up with 134.

State Man then went on to produce a performance that earnt him a RPR of 151 in the County Hurdle, and in hope that Mistergif may be able to follow along the same sort of trajectory, he could put in a performance plenty good enough to place. This is dependant on what turns up of course, but should Ballyburn end up in the BB then it would massively increase Mistergifs chances of hitting the places. I'm already on at 33's but I think he could probably go beyond what Mystical Power has achieved to date, so 25's still appeals to me.

I've likened the race to that of the year Appreciate It won it, and that year the double green were unlucky not to hit the places with Blue Lord (fell), and Willie's also rans can run into the places behind the yard number one.

Non biased at all, but yeah i like him alot too shame that wasn't his 4th run as I'd say he would be a shoe in for the county off whatever the hcapper could give him. Sure some of us got the magic 1000 on BF on him too

[Quevega]

After the stable tours, my two main takeaways were:
- Gordon said Firefox was below par and scoped badly at Naas. They expect an improved performance in the Supreme.
- Willie did exactly as I'd hoped and left options wide open for Ballyburn while tilting heavily towards the Supreme for Mystical Power.

On that basis, I'd be even more expectant that Ballyburn will go to the Ballymore but the clincher for me is his breeding. By Flemensfirth out of an Old Vic mare just screams stamina. His 2 mile form probably already makes him the best 2 mile hurdler by the sire and he is most likely to be better over further. He has several full siblings who are all best at 2m6f or further.

They can't be sure that he can turn round the form with a fully firing Firefox who will surely force the pace but they seem to have the BB field covered. Of course, this is just where we are now and is exactly why no decision will be made until the last minute.

Who would Paul Townend ride in the Supreme if they go the way you're thinking ?

[TigerRolllllll]

Ive come to the conclusion, that Firefox is one of best NRNB plays at moment....as it has significant opportunity to shorten.....as possible Ballyburn or Mystical Power come out

Not a big fan of GE for this race and you have to take a lot on potential....but we know GE had considered Firefox his best novice all season....in same Willie always had Ballyburn his best

Also, whatever the value of the form when they met, it is bound to be discussed over and over at preview evenings, with wise guys tipping Firefox up

Odd, cos dont necessarily think it will win, but feels like the right play now to increase my position

[Run4Home]

Who would Paul Townend ride in the Supreme if they go the way you're thinking ?

Thats the key isn't it - its very very likely PT will be on both Ballyburn and IA from the talk, so they'll most likely be split and IA is Ballymore bound atm would the way I'd look at it right now.
Paul will be telling WP which 2 he wants and Willie will split those, way it always works

[Quevega]

Thats the key isn't it - its very very likely PT will be on both Ballyburn and IA from the talk, so they'll most likely be split and IA is Ballymore bound atm would the way I'd look at it right now.
Paul will be telling WP which 2 he wants and Willie will split those, way it always works

Yeah, the stable jockey is in the best seat really. They tend to get listened too.

I suppose if no injuries or anything unusual happening (including Townend getting the ride on a Mcmanus horse) then it's possible Ile Atlantique switches to supreme on the promise they get Townend, but this seems unlikely from recent comments and would probably need the ground to come up pretty soft for it to be even considered.

[TigerRolllllll]

Thats the key isn't it - its very very likely PT will be on both Ballyburn and IA from the talk, so they'll most likely be split and IA is Ballymore bound atm would the way I'd look at it right now.
Paul will be telling WP which 2 he wants and Willie will split those, way it always works

Spot on ….this is the key…..plus these are 2 of the ones all season Willie had as his best (top 3-4)…..I don’t think he rates Mystical Power enough as a lead in either, so he can slot wherever JP wants

[Kevloaf]

Ive come to the conclusion, that Firefox is one of best NRNB plays at moment....as it has significant opportunity to shorten.....as possible Ballyburn or Mystical Power come out

Not a big fan of GE for this race and you have to take a lot on potential....but we know GE had considered Firefox his best novice all season....in same Willie always had Ballyburn his best

Also, whatever the value of the form when they met, it is bound to be discussed over and over at preview evenings, with wise guys tipping Firefox up

Odd, cos dont necessarily think it will win, but feels like the right play now to increase my position

Not sure you need the NRNB part now mate.... not going anywhere else.

Definitely will be the wise guy horse..... said that myself when I was being a wise guy, when the bookies over reacted and made him 28/1 after the Lawlors.

"The only horse to beat Ballyburn muuuuuuuurrrrrrrrrrrr" - 1/5 that gets said at every preview evening

[Dandrew99]

Thats the key isn't it - its very very likely PT will be on both Ballyburn and IA from the talk, so they'll most likely be split and IA is Ballymore bound atm would the way I'd look at it right now.
Paul will be telling WP which 2 he wants and Willie will split those, way it always works

Out of interest, purely theoretical so ignore the specifics of this year. If Willie has 2 absolute good things (say MP looked as good as Ballyburn has) so wanted to split between Supreme and BB, but that meant Paul didn't get a decent ride in one of the races, but running them against each other meant Paul did get a good ride in both races, how would you expect that to play out?

Your comment about Paul deciding then Willie splitting just intrigued me, as I expected Willie to split based on his opinion then jockeys to fall out of that, with some form of discussion before of course.

[Runragged]

See - this is the thing.

So many say that the turn of foot is what serves the Ballymore so well.
Because they generally don't go the same pace as they do in the supreme.

And the supreme suits something with pace and stamina. Not always speed.
He definitely has the pace and the stamina. Most of all the class.

It all depends on how the race is run, but Willie is not daft and if he chooses to run in the Supreme, then Townend just needs to get the fractions right, if he goes too slow then I'd say he might be vulnerable, but even then in this field I'm not so sure the danger is there, aside from Firefox.

The supreme being the first race of the festival is more often strongly run than the Ballymore. Although not guaranteed of course.

If you know you have the best horse then it's an easier race to bomb from the front end.
The Ballymore is much harder to do that, so the pace they go is often not as controllable.

It's not just being the first race that causes the Supreme to be strongly run. They start on the finishing straight, have a quick hurdle before a run to the second and in front of the crowds. It sets up for the early pace to be strong and doesn't settle down. In the Baring Bingham they have two quick hurdles before they are into a turn which all adds to it being easier to set a settled pace. If you look at last years races then that also tells in the finishing speeds. Marine Nationale was coming home at around 27/28 mph, Impaire Et Passe was around 30 mph having hit 35mph once turned intot he straight. As you say, the ability to travel at a consistent high pace is what is often needed to win a Supreme, as Ballyburn has demonstrated. To win a Baring Bingham then you need to have that ability to quicken at speed at the end of the race. Personally, less easy to see in the BB this year in my mind where the ability to quicken over 2m is usually a tell tale sign. Maybe I am ignoring the obvious in Readin Tommy Wrong who managed to pick up Ile Atlantique on the run in at Naas last time and the form of his maiden win looks good on paper. It's also one reason why I am pinning my hopes on Mystical Power being upped in trip.