2024 Novice Hurdlers

[Rooster Booster]

Not many stay unbeaten and I'd say it's less important to Willie than it is to a lot of other trainers. If Nicky had his best novice in a maiden against Firefox who had already ran that season, I don't think he'd have kept his horse in the same race.

Vautour lost plenty of races over fences - still one of the top 3 chasers of the last 10 years IMO. Bob Olinger lost as a novice hurdler but was still very good.

Ballyburn is rated higher at this point of his career than Vautour, Douvan, Appreciate It and Sir Gerhard. For those who like RPRs he's also achieved the same RPR at the DRF as Marine Nationale achieved at Cheltenham and the Cheltenham ratings are usually inflated. Just needs to prove himself at Cheltenham by winning either race. I'd personally have him clear of last year's novices and potentially the 2nd best novice hurdler over the last 5 years. Maybe I'm rating him too high but we'll find out in a few weeks time.

Obviously if this is how high you rate him it’s fairly pointless debating with you ( I mean that with no malice) it’s just a fact. I can’t remember the last time I was that confident about a novice hurdler and I hope you clean up. Gl to you.

[TCH29]

I’m not saying what May or may not happen in the Supreme.
Im just stating the fact that Firefox beat him comfortably and questioning whether he’s as clear of the rest as the odds suggest, and on different ground.
Yes Firefox got beat over a different distance and Ballyburn won well since.
Im still not convinced he’s clear, maybe after the festival I will think or know differently.
Im definitely open minded and still looking for potential value in the 2 races he’s short fav.

Ballyburn is probably the best novice and probably wins either race. I’m with others that think his price, certainly on the day, will be on the short side compared to historic SPs of favs winning and how good they were.

Nevertheless I do read the Firefox situation a little differently to some. I agree that you CAN explain away his defeat of Ballyburn over 2 miles by saying he was race fit and Ballyburn wasn’t and it was a crawl that turned into a sprint. There is some validity in that. But surely that accepts that Firefox is the quicker horse in a sprint in that he has the extra gear? Perhaps that is different now. Personally I think it’s hard to be sure Ballyburn is comfortably clear of Firefox at 2 miles.

Secondly, I watched that Lawlors race differently to most (therefore possibly wrongly!). I thought Firefox was keen. He was eating lengths out of his opponents at fences and pulling forwards. He kept jumping out of Kennedy’s hands and having to be brought back. He ran his chance away, hence there being nothing in the tank at the business end. I know Elliot has said he wasn’t quite right and that run wasn’t him afterwards. But watching that, I thought, this looks a Supreme horse. He wants to travel and jump quicker than they are going.

When I combine that with him doing Ballyburn (a not match fit Ballyburn) comfortably for toe in the 2m race earlier, i do think Firefox is the bet at the prices in the Supreme. He’ll go their fresh too.

Perhaps Ballyburn has improved past him. Not sure the price difference is fully justified though.

[Lobos]

Could be that both Ballyburn and Firefox go forward and cut each others throats. They could set the race up for a strong finisher. The Spring ground will be a shock to the system for some as well.

[ComplyOrDie]

Could be that both Ballyburn and Firefox go forward and cut each others throats. They could set the race up for a strong finisher. The Spring ground will be a shock to the system for some as well.

I think you say this every season

I remember when you said the same of Constitution Hill, still lodged in my memory, after his deep ground Tolworth win

[Lobos]

I think you say this every season

I remember when you said the same of Constitution Hill, still lodged in my memory, after his deep ground Tolworth win

It's very true though. Some just can't handle it.

[Quevega]

It's very true though. Some just can't handle it.

Name one
Which horse in the last 10 years has been found out by the Spring ground ?

[Kevloaf]

Not many stay unbeaten and I'd say it's less important to Willie than it is to a lot of other trainers. If Nicky had his best novice in a maiden against Firefox who had already ran that season, I don't think he'd have kept his horse in the same race.

Vautour lost plenty of races over fences - still one of the top 3 chasers of the last 10 years IMO. Bob Olinger lost as a novice hurdler but was still very good.

Ballyburn is rated higher at this point of his career than Vautour, Douvan, Appreciate It and Sir Gerhard. For those who like RPRs he's also achieved the same RPR at the DRF as Marine Nationale achieved at Cheltenham and the Cheltenham ratings are usually inflated. Just needs to prove himself at Cheltenham by winning either race. I'd personally have him clear of last year's novices and potentially the 2nd best novice hurdler over the last 5 years. Maybe I'm rating him too high but we'll find out in a few weeks time.

Unequivocally, we won't find out in a few weeks time if he's the 2nd best novice hurdler of the last 5 years.
We'll need to see him in open company to know that, and even then it'll be debatable.

I'm not even knocking Ballyburn, I just think I've seen enough Mullins hot pots over the years now to not want to let myself get carried away with statements that you've made at the end.


For me, he's closer to Appreciate It and Sir Gerhard, in that he's put in the best performances this season, and therefore is the best this year out of the novices. neither of them have gone on to do anything 'top notch'. Vautour and Douvan are ability-wise above Appreciate It and Sir Gerhard IMO .... that's essentially all I'm saying, that I think Ballyburn will be closer to the former two than the latter.... which I appreciate is a fairly irrelevant point to make

[ComplyOrDie]

On a line through Lecky Watson, Ile Atlantique has the beating of Slade Steel, and with Willie namechecking the race, why is he 2-3pts bigger in price than the latter?

[Rooster Booster]

Name one
Which horse in the last 10 years has been found out by the Spring ground ?

Absolutely. Ballyburn will be absolutely fine on spring ground however recognising how effective the sires progeny are on soft and testing ground it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if there are horses that would benefit more than him from a shift to faster ground should it materialise. I think this year, more than any I can remember I feel there are horses that have been doing okay despite not because of the ground and I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least one take a disproportionately large step forward on quicker ground.

Total guesswork on my part and it doesn’t change the fact that Ballyburn as it stands is the most likely winner of whichever novice he pitches up in.

[Quevega]

Absolutely. Ballyburn will be absolutely fine on spring ground however recognising how effective the sires progeny are on soft and testing ground it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if there are horses that would benefit more than him from a shift to faster ground should it materialise. I think this year, more than any I can remember I feel there are horses that have been doing okay despite not because of the ground and I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least one take a disproportionately large step forward on quicker ground.

Total guesswork on my part and it doesn’t change the fact that Ballyburn as it stands is the most likely winner of whichever novice he pitches up in.

I still can't believe he has shown so much pace. I was dead set against him until his maiden win, and the lack of any other superstars.

It looks very much like Appreciate It's year, but the Firefox defeat and McManus horses should mean he stays odds against - I'd predict 6/4 - 15/8 sort of range as an SP. Unless we get serious defections.

There is also a decent chance that the Lawlors was a really strong race and might be the best novice hurdle form outside of Ballyburn himself. Especially on a line through Lecky Watson.

The ground for the Supreme will be perfect unless we get hardly any real rain until the Tuesday.

If it's a warm Spring then the rest of the week will be markedly different for a lot of the horses.

[Quevega]

On a line through Lecky Watson, Ile Atlantique has the beating of Slade Steel, and with Willie namechecking the race, why is he 2-3pts bigger in price than the latter?

Apologies, I'd not seen your quote.

I agree, and would add in Tommy as well.
I'd be pretty sure that Munir and co will have seen the same formlines and expect them to run Tommy in the BB also, although they do make some crummy decisions those lot.

It will be a fascinating race I reckon as Townend will likely be on Ile Atlantique and will take a lead this time, and I'd expect Daryl to follow him, and we'll see who has it in them to wait the longest. And if Rachel goes for home if Slade Steel can keep them at bay.

Obviously this assumes no Mystical or Ballyburn in the race. Both potentially better than all three of those but my current inkling is they'll face off in the Supreme unless Mcmanus other horse looks good this weekend.

My personal opinion now is, barring injury that Townend and Mullins will be wanting him to ride Ballyburn and Ile Atlantique.

[Rooster Booster]

I still can't believe he has shown so much pace. I was dead set against him until his maiden win, and the lack of any other superstars.

It looks very much like Appreciate It's year, but the Firefox defeat and McManus horses should mean he stays odds against - I'd predict 6/4 - 15/8 sort of range as an SP. Unless we get serious defections.

There is also a decent chance that the Lawlors was a really strong race and might be the best novice hurdle form outside of Ballyburn himself. Especially on a line through Lecky Watson.

The ground for the Supreme will be perfect unless we get hardly any real rain until the Tuesday.

If it's a warm Spring then the rest of the week will be markedly different for a lot of the horses.

Same here. I’ve had a really good run in the race so I can’t complain. I’m due a bad year and this looks like it could be it. He’s a good winner for me in the BB but not in the Supreme. I’ll try a few nrnb roll ups and see if I strike lucky if not I’ll likely take my medicine and move on. There’s plenty worse things than not getting the winner if the supreme (he said unconvincingly)

[Lobos]

Name one
Which horse in the last 10 years has been found out by the Spring ground ?

[BookieBasher]

Mirazur taken out the Supreme market

[Lobos]

On a line through Lecky Watson, Ile Atlantique has the beating of Slade Steel, and with Willie namechecking the race, why is he 2-3pts bigger in price than the latter?

On a line through Ballyburn I suppose