2024 Novice Hurdlers

[FinalFurlong91]

Ballyburn a sea of blue for the Supreme with pretty much every bookmaker today. Drifting for the Ballymore in places. Market suggests decision made but who knows. IA confirmed Ballymore and Willie also has the G1 winner in RTR for last years winning connections. Two very good bullets. Ballyburn just goes Supreme and wins doesnt he

Run4home told us no decisions are set in stone until they work a week or so before the meeting

plans change, its Willie mullins

[Odin]

This should be repeated on every page here. Groundhog Day indeed. Well said GV.

It's a fascinating study of psychology though don't you think?

[charlie]

Run4home told us no decisions are set in stone until they work a week or so before the meeting

plans change, its Willie mullins

Really, hadn't noticed

[Run4Home]

Ronnie Bartlett gave an interview yesterday saying they had not decided where Ballyburn is going yet

Obviously i think most people can guess whats likely but anyone thinking they've make a decision this far out i would say is a bit off

Most horses they obviously have a fair idea but Paul isn't making final decisions until he has to after last pieces of work which is usually the Tuesday before and he has a huge say. Its fairly simple if your a trainer you wait and see whats fit and more importantly what is working well before you split up.

[Rooster Booster]

Ronnie Bartlett gave an interview yesterday saying they had not decided where Ballyburn is going yet

Obviously i think most people can guess whats likely but anyone thinking they've make a decision this far out i would say is a bit off

Most horses they obviously have a fair idea but Paul isn't making final decisions until he has to after last pieces of work which is usually the Tuesday before and he has a huge say. Its fairly simple if your a trainer you wait and see whats fit and more importantly what is working well before you split up.

Your input on here is invaluable and your update makes perfect sense. I hope it is used by folks to centre our future discussions but I’m not holding my breath.

[jrjr]

Ronnie Bartlett gave an interview yesterday saying they had not decided where Ballyburn is going yet

Obviously i think most people can guess whats likely but anyone thinking they've make a decision this far out i would say is a bit off

Most horses they obviously have a fair idea but Paul isn't making final decisions until he has to after last pieces of work which is usually the Tuesday before and he has a huge say. Its fairly simple if your a trainer you wait and see whats fit and more importantly what is working well before you split up.

Thanks, R4H, always find your posts informative.

This ties in with Facile Vega at the DRF. According to interviews, it was the work he did on the Tuesday that convinced WPM to send him to the Irish Arkle, and presumably then GW up in trip. Prior to that they may have had slightly different plans.

You'd think the Ballyburn position might be similar although there would probably be a first/second choice pending the final piece of work.

[Exar Essay]

Gaucher declared in the 2m maiden hurdle at the Ten Up meeting on Sunday ...

[Quevega]

It's blatantly obvious how Willie operates and why.

The volume of contenders simply means the situation and plans are far more fluid than other yards. And there's no reason to commit until you have to, same goes with his stable jockey.

It will be rare for him to commit to future races unless it's also blatantly obvious or is significantly led by the owners wishes/plans.

[Bollinger]

It's blatantly obvious how Willie operates and why.

The volume of contenders simply means the situation and plans are far more fluid than other yards. And there's no reason to commit until you have to, same goes with his stable jockey.

It will be rare for him to commit to future races unless it's also blatantly obvious or is significantly led by the owners wishes/plans.

Q is right here, and I’ve always been surprised more punters/ members don’t both acknowledge with respect the situation Mullins finds himself in,

Firstly, despite our judgments made weeks/ months in advance of a selection, it’s only Willie’s and his owners business where they run. If those decisions become ‘surprises’ (occasionally), then that’s Willie’s and his owners business. I can’t think of any valid reason why a punter, or anyone else outside of being Willie or an owner should have any influence of where, say Ballyburn should or shouldn’t run, withstanding close members of his training staff.

Secondly, Willie is the first trainer (possibly, I’ll add as a caveat) in National hunt history, let alone in an era with Nicky, Henry, Gordon and Nichols, where he has such an amount of horses that could not only win over (for example) both a Supreme or Ballymore, but beat those aforementioned trainers No 1’s yard choice too. His abundant riches in terms of both quality and quantity have never been on quite this scale on either side of the Irish Sea.

I really would hope that people who think Willie sends punters in the wrong direction from time to time would give the guy a little less slack, I feel.

Yes, his U Turn on Vautour took a lot of people by surprise a few years back, but ultimately, if Willie’s decision was backed fully with Rich/ Susannah Ricci at that 48 hour stage, then that’s the only thing that’s relevant - our opinions / money traded months in advance has zero relevance in any of it.

[charlie]

Ronnie Bartlett gave an interview yesterday saying they had not decided where Ballyburn is going yet

Obviously i think most people can guess whats likely but anyone thinking they've make a decision this far out i would say is a bit off

Most horses they obviously have a fair idea but Paul isn't making final decisions until he has to after last pieces of work which is usually the Tuesday before and he has a huge say. Its fairly simple if your a trainer you wait and see whats fit and more importantly what is working well before you split up.

All true. Market today is sea of blue for Ballyburn Supreme and sea of blue for Mystical Power Ballymore (both going in the other direction in opposite markets). Im sure a decision will be made late but the market (just the market) is telling us those two will be split.

[Quevega]

The other 2 Mcmanus horses taken a walk in the supreme for now, both available at 40's for small amounts.
Quite possibly recency bias from Dublin still impacting, but have heard more than one mention that Mirazur might not be 100% on podcasts - Daryl carter for one.

[Salubrious Chin]

I would ignore the blue/pink price changes on Oddschecker for all race markets, as they haven't been refreshed/reset daily for a few days now. I raised it with them and their developers are looking into the issue. You can still click on each horse to see their price history which is correct.

[Faugheen_Machine]

All true. Market today is sea of blue for Ballyburn Supreme and sea of blue for Mystical Power Ballymore (both going in the other direction in opposite markets). Im sure a decision will be made late but the market (just the market) is telling us those two will be split.

Mystical Power is a strange one because he's not really strong in the Ballymore on the exchanges, but has drifted for the Supreme.

One other thing to note is Mirazur West and No Flies On Him are absolutely friendless in the Supreme market on the exchanges, so if Mystical Power does step up, JP could well be solely relying on Jeriko in the opener.

[Quevega]

Mystical Power is a strange one because he's not really strong in the Ballymore on the exchanges, but has drifted for the Supreme.

One other thing to note is Mirazur West and No Flies On Him are absolutely friendless in the Supreme market on the exchanges, so if Mystical Power does step up, JP could well be solely relying on Jeriko in the opener.

His options seem to be thinning out though, a bit like Willie's novice chasers.

If you were JP and you were told Ballyburn was intending on running in the supreme, what would you do with your 2 hopes ?
Especially as Nicky's is only entered in the supreme ?

[Quevega]

His options seem to be thinning out though, a bit like Willie's novice chasers.

If you were JP and you were told Ballyburn was intending on running in the supreme, what would you do with your 2 hopes ?
Especially as Nicky's is only entered in the supreme ?

On the prices thing for the ballymore, I'm not sure we'd have a clear favourite IMO - it would be close between around 4 or 5 horses if Ballyburn wasn't there.