2024 Novice Hurdlers

[Exar Essay]

Makes you think those three may all go Supreme then. Tommy, Il Atlantique and Predators Gold his main three for the Ballymore. What's not to like ?

That's the way I heard it. Ruby was weighing up whether he'd ride IA or RTW in the Ballymore and basically said it could go either way. Ruby did not address the question of where IA or RTW go head on, but he's normally very careful with his words which led me to believe that's the way they might be heading.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Why is it 'funny'?!

To one of your earlier points, clearly the whole world didn't know quite how good Constitution Hill was/ is, which is why he went off 'only' 9/4JF. But...that still represents significant market support vs the at the time unbeaten Mullins first string Dysart Dynamo (9/4JF) and the erstwhile Henderson-trained hype horse Jonbon (5/1).

If the wider world had some idea how good CH was/ is, I think its quite reasonable to suggest that those at the heart of the racing industry, including WIllie Mullins, might be better placed to have at least more of an idea.

And whilst most or all on here are very respectful admirers of Mullins' abilities and record, these threads are filled with discuss about concepts such as 'which is the easier race' and I have certainly read many many times that what Willie cares most about is Festival wins. That latter logic is incompatible with the idea that a possible world-beater in one race would have had zero bearing on the decision making process for allocating horse to races. Also discussed on these pages are things like in-race tactics, how to get one beat, etc, which suggest that we are open to the idea that trainers, jockeys etc think about more than just which race their horse is best suited to; in other words they do consider their opponents.

We have folks asserting confidently that Constitution Hill had 'nothing to do' with Sir Gerhard's ultimate destination without a hint of IMO and then shortly after characterising Paul Nicholls as a trainer who doesn't "waste time trying to beat horses at Cheltenham he knows he can’t beat". Are we really to believe that the two most successful NH trainers in Ireland and the UK over the last 20 years are so fundamentally different that one refuses to place any weight whatsoever on the strength of opponents while the other places so much that they won't even attempt to try to win?!

I'd have thought that being able to retrospectively adapt our understanding of events based not just the information we had before an event but to factor in what we know after the event would be one of the core skills we'd look to take advantage of as punters.

So I think I get the point that people are trying to make but I reject some of the absolutes being expressed over the past couple of pages and...I actually think its funny that people would think that the strength of his opponents is completely immaterial as a factor for Mullins, and Mullins alone.

I should clarify my point re P Nicholls.
I do think these days he thinks a lot more about Cheltenham not being the be all and end all .
He will go elsewhere with his horses if he feels it’s right to do that for the horse and the owners.
He still runs them at the festival if he thinks they have a fair chance, but he’s imo very conscious of getting as much prize money and wins for his owners.

[BuckingThe Trend]

It will be interesting how many of the good Caldwell horses will make Cheltenham still. I'm guessing that since the sale announcement, they've not been in training so they will be behind on their work. Additionally, Nicholls always talks about horses adjusting to the routine at Ditcheat so he may be up against time to have him where he want's for a tilt at any Cheltenham race.

Apparently Gordon was the other person bidding for Caldwell Potter so maybe he kept him in full training in the hope he was coming back to the yard. But in all probability with the change of yards at this stage of the season I agree with you. Aintree more likely than Cheltenham now for sure.

[BuckingThe Trend]

https://twitter.com/Tattersalls_ie/s...42438595629192


Already putting in the Aintree feelers for Caldwell..

I'd be out of there if I had him in the book

Agree with both you and JackieMoon33. Cashed Out. Live to fight another day.

[Zachx02]

Probably means nothing but on the exchanges for ballyburn the ballymore has been supported a lot more than the supreme, supreme gone from 2.8 post race to 3.25 whilst ballymore has came in from 6.0 to 3.85 as of writing

[Guinness Village]

Very relevant. Willie will split his 2 poster boys.

[charlie]

Supreme looks obvious for Ballyburn IMO, for loads of reasons.

He was still a bit keen and travelled strongly LTO - you don't rush to step horses who travel like that up in trip.
Tied into that, the Supreme would suit that style of running better.
Hes posted a career best in a G1 over 2m and we know the Supreme is more likely based on where he's sent others
The Supreme market looks weak to put it lightly, it's so winnable.
Even though MP looks good we wont see him again so he's a bit of an unknown, what else is there?
Willie has 2 horses who were 1st and 2nd in a known G1 Ballymore trial who would both go off super short without Ballyburn in Ballymore.

Ballyburn would definitely he a worthy fav in the Ballymore and I do believe too much is made of the difference between the two races for really good horses, but that being said, the supreme couldn't look like lower hanging fruit IMO.

[Odin]

Would be wary of using the Lawlors as a trial for the Ballymore for Willie.
Whilst a number of his horses go from Lawlors to Ballymore, the only festival winner he's had who ran in that race since 2013 was Champagne Fever in the Supreme.
In the same timeframe, he's won the Ballymore four times - that feels important in some way, although they all came from different races (Faugheen - Limerick at Xmas, Yorkhill - Tolworth, Sir G - DRF, Impaire - Moscow Flyer).


It's also important to consider Willie's quotes about Ballyburn through the season:

Preseason:
"Ballyburn looks a top-notcher. Rather than going for the Champion Bumper we went for the winners' bumper at Punchestown. He came with a nice reputation and, while he looks a chaser in the marking, he could be one of our top-notch novice hurdlers, possibly in the staying division - a Ballymore type. He has been keen in bumpers but I'd imagine jumping will steady him up a bit and maybe we'll ride him with more restraint when he gets into bigger novice hurdles, but in his maiden hurdle if he jumps well he might take his chance from the front, but that'll be Paul Townend's problem."

Post-Xmas win:
"Ballyburn did what we hoped he might do in Fairyhouse. He jumped well and galloped out to the line. He improved hugely from Fairyhouse and I'm hoping there's plenty more improvement to come. Paul said he appears keen but it's just the way he carries his head low. You'd be thinking he's more of a two-and-a-half-mile horse, I don't know if we need to go out to 2m6f for the Dublin Racing Festival, depending on the ground "

Post DRF:
"Ballyburn met hurdle after hurdle right and was in control the whole way. Paul was very happy with how he did things. He did everything right over the minimum trip which is good"


The thing that stands out to me is the thought process that they needed to "steady him up" pre-season but thought of him as a 2.5 miler.
They still thought of him as a 2.5 miler post-Xmas and then post-DRF they suggested that he was in control (i.e. they'd managed to steady him up?) which is what they've been looking for all season.
We all know that no decision will be made until nearer the time, but there have been a few years recently where he's made a decision come March that we've said all the clues were there for in terms of pre-season quotes when it happened (Sir Gerhard and Galopin Des Champs spring to mind).
It strikes me as extremely possible this could be the case again

[TigerRolllllll]

Ruby mentioned on the PP podcast yesterday that Mirazur West was coming to hand now …,also suggested Mistergif as ew outsider for Supreme

[Faugheen_Machine]

Would be wary of using the Lawlors as a trial for the Ballymore for Willie.
Whilst a number of his horses go from Lawlors to Ballymore, the only festival winner he's had who ran in that race since 2013 was Champagne Fever in the Supreme.
In the same timeframe, he's won the Ballymore four times - that feels important in some way, although they all came from different races (Faugheen - Limerick at Xmas, Yorkhill - Tolworth, Sir G - DRF, Impaire - Moscow Flyer).


It's also important to consider Willie's quotes about Ballyburn through the season:

Preseason:
"Ballyburn looks a top-notcher. Rather than going for the Champion Bumper we went for the winners' bumper at Punchestown. He came with a nice reputation and, while he looks a chaser in the marking, he could be one of our top-notch novice hurdlers, possibly in the staying division - a Ballymore type. He has been keen in bumpers but I'd imagine jumping will steady him up a bit and maybe we'll ride him with more restraint when he gets into bigger novice hurdles, but in his maiden hurdle if he jumps well he might take his chance from the front, but that'll be Paul Townend's problem."

Post-Xmas win:
"Ballyburn did what we hoped he might do in Fairyhouse. He jumped well and galloped out to the line. He improved hugely from Fairyhouse and I'm hoping there's plenty more improvement to come. Paul said he appears keen but it's just the way he carries his head low. You'd be thinking he's more of a two-and-a-half-mile horse, I don't know if we need to go out to 2m6f for the Dublin Racing Festival, depending on the ground "

Post DRF:
"Ballyburn met hurdle after hurdle right and was in control the whole way. Paul was very happy with how he did things. He did everything right over the minimum trip which is good"


The thing that stands out to me is the thought process that they needed to "steady him up" pre-season but thought of him as a 2.5 miler.
They still thought of him as a 2.5 miler post-Xmas and then post-DRF they suggested that he was in control (i.e. they'd managed to steady him up?) which is what they've been looking for all season.
We all know that no decision will be made until nearer the time, but there have been a few years recently where he's made a decision come March that we've said all the clues were there for in terms of pre-season quotes when it happened (Sir Gerhard and Galopin Des Champs spring to mind).
It strikes me as extremely possible this could be the case again

Great Post. I've convinced myself that he goes Ballymore (using same thinking as above) and have been adjusting my position using exchanges the last couple of days.

He'd win any of the 3 novice hurdles imo, but has the best chance in the Ballymore and that's ultimately where he'll end up (imo).

[Lobos]

Ruby mentioned on the PP podcast yesterday that Mirazur West was coming to hand now …,also suggested Mistergif as ew outsider for Supreme

Many on here will be disappointed with the Mistergif comment as hoping he'd go the Handicap route. Still a chance though.

[TigerRolllllll]

Many on here will be disappointed with the Mistergif comment as hoping he'd go the Handicap route. Still a chance though.

He’s only run 3 hurdles races?

[Rooster Booster]

Would be wary of using the Lawlors as a trial for the Ballymore for Willie.
Whilst a number of his horses go from Lawlors to Ballymore, the only festival winner he's had who ran in that race since 2013 was Champagne Fever in the Supreme.
In the same timeframe, he's won the Ballymore four times - that feels important in some way, although they all came from different races (Faugheen - Limerick at Xmas, Yorkhill - Tolworth, Sir G - DRF, Impaire - Moscow Flyer).


It's also important to consider Willie's quotes about Ballyburn through the season:

Preseason:
"Ballyburn looks a top-notcher. Rather than going for the Champion Bumper we went for the winners' bumper at Punchestown. He came with a nice reputation and, while he looks a chaser in the marking, he could be one of our top-notch novice hurdlers, possibly in the staying division - a Ballymore type. He has been keen in bumpers but I'd imagine jumping will steady him up a bit and maybe we'll ride him with more restraint when he gets into bigger novice hurdles, but in his maiden hurdle if he jumps well he might take his chance from the front, but that'll be Paul Townend's problem."

Post-Xmas win:
"Ballyburn did what we hoped he might do in Fairyhouse. He jumped well and galloped out to the line. He improved hugely from Fairyhouse and I'm hoping there's plenty more improvement to come. Paul said he appears keen but it's just the way he carries his head low. You'd be thinking he's more of a two-and-a-half-mile horse, I don't know if we need to go out to 2m6f for the Dublin Racing Festival, depending on the ground "

Post DRF:
"Ballyburn met hurdle after hurdle right and was in control the whole way. Paul was very happy with how he did things. He did everything right over the minimum trip which is good"


The thing that stands out to me is the thought process that they needed to "steady him up" pre-season but thought of him as a 2.5 miler.
They still thought of him as a 2.5 miler post-Xmas and then post-DRF they suggested that he was in control (i.e. they'd managed to steady him up?) which is what they've been looking for all season.
We all know that no decision will be made until nearer the time, but there have been a few years recently where he's made a decision come March that we've said all the clues were there for in terms of pre-season quotes when it happened (Sir Gerhard and Galopin Des Champs spring to mind).
It strikes me as extremely possible this could be the case again

Very good post mate.

[Benjy23]

Aye, it's convincing stuff that Odin

I keep telling myself I'm done for a bit and then read something and want to change my position. Tough times between DRF and Cheltenham!

A Firefox Supreme and Ballyburn Ballymore double is going to be my latest edition, on the back of this. I'm probably the only person that doesn't already have that to be fair.

[charlie]

The thing that stands out to me is the thought process that they needed to "steady him up" pre-season but thought of him as a 2.5 miler.

They still thought of him as a 2.5 miler post-Xmas and then post-DRF they suggested that he was in control (i.e. they'd managed to steady him up?) which is what they've been looking for all season.

We all know that no decision will be made until nearer the time, but there have been a few years recently where he's made a decision come March that we've said all the clues were there for in terms of pre-season quotes when it happened (Sir Gerhard and Galopin Des Champs spring to mind).

It strikes me as extremely possible this could be the case again

I think you've hit the nail on the head re pre-season quotes. At the start of the season they definitely thought he was a 2.5 miler but I think that view has changed. He started off over 2m (which means nothing as most do) then went up to 2.5 miles. He romped in and that suggested 2.5 miles was going to be his bag. But, the way he races is more suited to 2m at Cheltenham than 2.5f IMO. He is keen and travels strongly with a low head carriage. I think they dropped him back to 2m because they knew a horse who raced like that will find 2m at Cheltenham easier than 2.5m. Im not saying he couldn't win a Bally and generally think too much is made of the difference between the two, but 2m would be an easier task IMO and the Supreme is not a deep race at all. We see plenty of future stayers win the Supreme and he'd go there as one of Willies best 2m Grade 1 winners in recent years having just posted an RPR of 157 which hasn't been bettered by any of Willies in the last 10 years. As far as quotes go 'you'd be thinking he's more of a two-and-a-half-mile horse' post xmas off the back of a facile maiden hurdle win would come a very distant second in terms of significance to 'he did everything right over the minimum trip which is good', which was said post G1 after the DRF. Sub 4 minutes on soft ground was a really good time and he's ran the best race of his life by some way. Willie has two horses who were very closely matched come 1st and 2nd in the Lawlors, so he has proper Bally ammo. MP looked very good, but is a complete unknown in deep water. Ballyburn isn't. For all those reasons I'd have the Supreme as the more likely destination of the two races but nothing would surprise me tbh.