2024 Novice Hurdlers

[Carnage at Taunton]

Willie's choices when deciding between Ballymore or Supreme are rarely stamina/trip based.
It's usually efficiency of jumping and style of going that are the dominant factors.

The Dysart vs Sir Gerhard was a perfect example of this.
And had feck all to do with Constitution Hill IMO (that's just people reading history backwards)- Willie don't run scared of other horses, especially novices.

They were never happy with Sir Gerhards jumping and Dysart was just too hard on himself to be suitable for the longer trip

Slicker jumpers more likely supreme.
More forward going - Keen - etc supreme.
More relaxed types more likely Ballymore.
Obviously if he has two with similar characteristics he may decide to split them if he thinks one is capable of winning the other race anyhow vs the opposition.

Yep, pretty much agree with all of that.
I think DD made his mind up for him re him or SG.
And no way was CHill anything to do with it.
In the lead up to that Supreme CH, Jonbon and DD all had their supporters and it was close in the betting if I recall correctly?
Ive always thought that most novice hurdlers could run in either race and have fairly equal chances in either re their own ability.
Once they know each horse as well as they can it’s then Opponents, likely ground, which are probably the most important things they consider when deciding imo , which is why we often have to wait until very near the week or the week itself, before we know.

[Quevega]

Completely agree with that. Have read it a few times now on here and forgot to mention it but it's spot on.

Constitution Hill went off 9/4J with Dysart Dynamo.

If they knew Consitution Hill was a weapon, DD wouldn't have been 9/4J


If Sir Gerhard had have run in the Supreme he'd have been fav, and got walloped....but that isn't the point.

It annoys me when people refer to it far more than it should.
Although to be fair - some will add in that it's a retrospective viewpoint, which is funny but fair enough.

[Quevega]

That would be worth a Sweet Cherry Nipples shout

One of the doubles I did.
33-1 betfair (this morning, price now 20's) for Henry's in supreme doubled with Ballyburn Ballymore at 2-1.

[Lobos]

One of the doubles I did.
33-1 betfair (this morning, price now 20's) for Henry's in supreme doubled with Ballyburn Ballymore at 2-1.

Not backed the double. Just singles. Ballyburn in both and Slade Steel in Ballymore.

[Bonjers]

Caldwell Potter to Nicholls for SAF, Mason, Hales and Done. Blimey.

[Quevega]

Yep, pretty much agree with all of that.
I think DD made his mind up for him re him or SG.
And no way was CHill anything to do with it.
In the lead up to that Supreme CH, Jonbon and DD all had their supporters and it was close in the betting if I recall correctly?
Ive always thought that most novice hurdlers could run in either race and have fairly equal chances in either re their own ability.
Once they know each horse as well as they can it’s then Opponents, likely ground, which are probably the most important things they consider when deciding imo , which is why we often have to wait until very near the week or the week itself, before we know.

Yeah, spot on, and the ground comments tally up with the way the horse travels for sure. And breeding.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Caldwell Potter to Nicholls for SAF, Mason, Hales and Done. Blimey.

Very interesting!!

[BuckingThe Trend]

Caldwell Potter to Nicholls for SAF, Mason, Hales and Done. Blimey.

Don't think PN has got anything in at the top of the market for the Baring Bingham so hopefully all Caldwell Potter bets are still alive !

[Eggs]

…looks like plenty of Oddschecker blue for Mystical Power in B&B, probably Mullins bingo. Also a bit of support in the B&B for Caldwell Potter, that 22-1 NRNB is long gone.

[JackieMoon33]

Don't think PN has got anything in at the top of the market for the Baring Bingham so hopefully all Caldwell Potter bets are still alive !

It will be interesting how many of the good Caldwell horses will make Cheltenham still. I'm guessing that since the sale announcement, they've not been in training so they will be behind on their work. Additionally, Nicholls always talks about horses adjusting to the routine at Ditcheat so he may be up against time to have him where he want's for a tilt at any Cheltenham race.

[Big Bucks]

It will be interesting how many of the good Caldwell horses will make Cheltenham still. I'm guessing that since the sale announcement, they've not been in training so they will be behind on their work. Additionally, Nicholls always talks about horses adjusting to the routine at Ditcheat so he may be up against time to have him where he want's for a tilt at any Cheltenham race.

Yeah as much as he annoys us ante post punters, PN can be overly cautious (and he has all right to be, he knows better than any of us) And if big money purchase I'm sure connections want the future best for him and them! frustrating though as that does go against Caldwell Potter running in March imo! But again probably right call before anyone takes this the wrong way

[FinalFurlong91]

Caldwell Potter to Nicholls for SAF, Mason, Hales and Done. Blimey.

Aintree it is then

[darlojim]

https://twitter.com/Tattersalls_ie/status/1754542438595629192

Already putting in the Aintree feelers for Caldwell..

I'd be out of there if I had him in the book

[FinalFurlong91]

https://twitter.com/Tattersalls_ie/s...42438595629192


Already putting in the Aintree feelers for Caldwell..

I'd be out of there if I had him in the book

That is an obscene amount of money for a jumps gelding

He'd need to win 2 gold cup to get that back

[Carnage at Taunton]

That is an obscene amount of money for a jumps gelding

He'd need to win 2 gold cup to get that back

PN is good at mounting up the prize money for his owners.
One of the reasons imo he don’t waste time trying to beat horses at Cheltenham he knows he can’t beat, and targeting other meetings.