2024 Novice Hurdlers

[DenmanSacre]

Poss more risk of something quickening in Ballymore? Supreme usually fast gallop & he can control it from front end

He probably wins either to be honest. Just not sure his top end speed is elite as a hurdler but as you say, he could just gallop them out of it.

He'll go over fences anyway and as long as he can jump, doubt there will be another novice who'd live with him over 2 and a half plus next season if they let him loose from the front.

[archie]

Willie said it was good he did everything right at the minimum trip but he also very pointedly said the decision was for another day.

He's beaten another stayer today and I'd say the decision will be left until the last minute.

[RoadToCheltenham]

Farren Glory backers - The Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board Veterinary Officer examined Farren Glory, trained by Gordon Elliott, at the request of the Raceday Stewards and reported the animal to have blood at both nostrils post race.

[Lobos]

It was a horrible fall he took last time.. wouldn't be surprised if he was still suffering from that.

[Madmoose]

Be interesting to see if Kennedy can get Firefox ahead of Ballyburn again if they meet in the Supreme, i took the 12/1 ew for Firefox when Ballyburn shit up.

I know Ballyburn has stepped up well in the past two runs but the price difference looks big to me.

[isitmarchyet]

Be interesting to see if Kennedy can get Firefox ahead of Ballyburn again if they meet in the Supreme, i took the 12/1 ew for Firefox when Ballyburn shit up.

I know Ballyburn has stepped up well in the past two runs but the price difference looks big to me.

Can see him being a popular EW angle at the preview nights, probably go off a fair bit shorter.

[Nevertoolate]

Surely he splits Mystical Power and Ballyburn, his two best novice hurdlers

I'd be of the option that Mystical Power goes Supreme and Ballyburn goes Ballymore. Ballyburn has been beaten over 2m already this season, the horse that beat him has been confirmed for the Supreme. Ballyburn has already won over 2m4 while Mystical Power has never ran at the distance.

I’d be the opposite, think ballyburn will go to and win the supreme and would like to see mystical power be stepped up to the ballymore as his turn of foot looks devastating and perfectly suited to a ballymore

[YoungHustler]

I'd say currently Townends rides in the Supreme and BB will be Ballyburn and Ile Atlantique, therefore they will be split up accordingly. To me IA will go the Ballymore to that means Ballyburn to the Supreme.

Walsh will then most likely take the rides on MP in one of them and more likely Mirazur West in the other over NFOH. I would think that it could be MP to the Ballymore and MW to the Supreme atm.

Reading Tommy Wrong will be riden by Jacob wherever he goes.

That would push Slade Steel to the Ballymore to avoid Ballyburn.

Leaving:

Supreme
Ballyburn - Townend
JDR - Nico
Mirazur West - Walsh
Firefox - Kennedy
Tullyhill - Patrick/Danny

Baring Bingham
Ile Atlantique - Townend
Mystical Power - Walsh
Reading Tommy Wrong - Jacob
Slade Steel - Rachel
Gidleigh - Burke
Caldwell Potter (If Elliot gets an existing owner to buy him) - Kennedy
Predators Gold - Danny

This is pretty much how I see it too although my pocket would much prefer Ballyburn in the Ballymore.

[Dandrew99]

The more I think about it, the more I think Ballyburn to the BB makes way more sense.

I don't believe Townend will pick his favourite two rides then they get split, he will have an influence of course but the most important thing for Willie and the yard is to get grade 1 winners, not for Townend to get grade 1 winners. We all know Willie will split his best two novices, just a case of which two they are and how he will split them. I don't think there is any debate about Ballyburn, but I'm not quite understanding how Ile Atlantique is supposedly deciding where Ballyburn goes. Ile Atlantique has only won a maiden hurdle, why would he dictate things? He's a 2nd string at best. For me it's pretty clear that his best two are Mystical Power and Ballyburn, so they will get split.

Once you're down to these two, yeah they probably could both go to either race. But I really just don't see why they would send Ballyburn to the Supreme and step Mystical Power up in trip.

1) Willie has already said Mystical Power is a Supreme horse (RTV yesterday when asked about Ballyburn going there, said they have MP going there, or close to that)
2) Mystical Power has never ran over further than 2m
3) Ballyburn has very good form over 2.5m
4) Ballyburn has been beaten once, over 2m to Firefox. Why would they send him to reoppose Firefox over 2m again?
5) Ballyburn ran in a PTP over 3m, similar to Sir Gerhard
6) Willie tends to send his Ballymore horses to the Punchestown bumper the prior year (he did with Ballyburn)
7) Willie tends to send his PTP recruits further than his french recruits
8) Will Willie trust a maiden hurdle winner in Ile Atlantique and Mystical Power who has never ran over the trip to bring home the Ballymore?

[DenmanSacre]

Lots of things can happen between now and March to affect running plans. If you haven't backed Ballyburn now for the Supreme, you're better off waiting until the day IMO and seeing if he turns up. If he does, there will be various offers for the Supreme and the bookies will be looking to take on the big favourite early on. Is he going to be shorter than the 6/4 he is now NRNB before the day? I'd say unlikely unless Mystical Power and/or Jeriko are ruled out, and is 6/4 worth tying your money up with 5 weeks to go.

For what it's worth, I think they see him as their best novice and they'll send him to the race they think he has the best chance of winning, which is the BB. The BB looks worse than the Supreme field, atmosphere is calmer on the Wednesday which might be factored in and they've got the 2nd fav in the Supreme already. If he goes Supreme, they'll have the first 2 in the betting but in the BB, they'll be relying on IA and RTW against Slade Steel, Gidleigh Park and Caldwell Potter who would all beat the Mullins lot IMO.

[Lobos]

Mystical offers JP his best chance of winning the opener. He won't give that up even if Ballyburn goes there. JP wouldn't be worried at all sending 2/3 to the same race if that is their best distance.

Even with Ballyburn and Mystical in the Supreme, Willie still has big chances in the Ballymore with IL Atlantique, Tommy and Predators Gold.

[Nwfb89]

Who do we think Caldwell potter's new owner will be after today? Surely this is one gordon will be desperate to keep in his yard won't it?

[Dandrew99]

Mystical offers JP his best chance of winning the opener. He won't give that up even if Ballyburn goes there. JP wouldn't be worried at all sending 2/3 to the same race if that is their best distance.

Even with Ballyburn and Mystical in the Supreme, Willie still has big chances in the Ballymore with IL Atlantique, Tommy and Predators Gold.

Mirazur West also ran over 3m in a PTP (although he fell...) so no reason why he couldn't step up to the BB so he's got a hand in both races.

Agreed that JP would want MP in the Supreme, but Willie wouldn't have them running against each other IMO. Another reason for Ballyburn to BB.

Worth it just for the alliteration I say.

[delsie777]

I think Billericay Dickie may have to be considered more than he is presently. I fancy he could be a big factor in the Baring Bingham and more significant than horses like Mystical Power, Ile Atlantique and Predators Gold. These are horses that have been elevated due to us wanting desperately to find hotpots within the novice ranks and the uncertainty surrounding the real deal, Ballyburn. As many have said, he could win either race and probably both if he was allowed. We now need to wait to see where he ends up before making any more guesses - that could be expensive - but a NRNB on Dickie might be an idea

[Lobos]

Mirazur West also ran over 3m in a PTP (although he fell...) so no reason why he couldn't step up to the BB so he's got a hand in both races.

Agreed that JP would want MP in the Supreme, but Willie wouldn't have them running against each other IMO. Another reason for Ballyburn to BB.

Worth it just for the alliteration I say.

Yep, that would work with MW going Ballymore. Willie would normally split them to give him big chances in both races but he'll have that anyway even if both Ballyburn and Power go Supreme. It helps that PT can't ride Power as well.