2024 Novice Hurdlers

[Exar Essay]

I don’t know how you can take that form literally. Lucky place was having his hurdle/seasonal debut and over a trip we now know was too short. The RPR of 109 says it all. THTN already had a run. I’m not saying THTN isn’t a good horse and agree it’s easy to put a line through the Tolworth run but if you use form lines like that, you’ll end up costing yourself a lot of money

I’m not taking it literally. I’ve used it as a piece of information to inform a view about a horse which is 33/1 following on from a conversation discussing outsiders in a race where the main players keep blotting their copy books. Just as I would use the narrow loss to Grade 1 winning Jango Baie and also his very poor showing in the Tolworth as relevant pieces of information too. I’m not suggesting that Tellherthename is 15 lbs superior to Lucky Place. Mind you, I think the same about most maiden/non-graded novice hurdle races - you can’t take the form too literally.

Rooster Booster Id not disagree with you re FAF as another very interesting one in a muddling race. I thought he travelled supremely well in the Tolworth and was going as well as Farren Glory when he came down (which is partly why i don’t wholly subscribe to the view FG would have won). Has King said the Supreme is the target?

[Rooster Booster]

Looking at Jerikos race again I think we are maybe being a little harsh on him ? Backers would obviously had liked him to win easily but it was a proper race yesterday and the 2nd and 3rd were also unbeaten over hurdles and well thought of by connections. He's still unbeaten and proved that he can scrap out a win whilst probably not being at his best.

100% agree with this. Nothing has stood out so far. The trainer was clear that if he didn’t get another run into him he wouldn’t run at the festival. That’s code for he needs to learn something as there are pieces missing in the jigsaw. The trainer never has his horses in festival shape in jan/feb. Expect him to improve significantly on the day. Will it be enough maybe maybe not but as a backer I now know that he has showed connections a few things to straighten out that they wouldn’t have known about before yesterday and as we saw with Sir Gino, when this trainer needs to work on specifics with young hurdlers he often gets it right.

[Rooster Booster]

I’m not taking it literally. I’ve used it as a piece of information to inform a view about a horse which is 33/1 following on from a conversation discussing outsiders in a race where the main players keep blotting their copy books. Just as I would use the narrow loss to Grade 1 winning Jango Baie and also his very poor showing in the Tolworth as relevant pieces of information too. I’m not suggesting that Tellherthename is 15 lbs superior to Lucky Place. Mind you, I think the same about most maiden/non-graded novice hurdle races - you can’t take the form too literally.

Rooster Booster Id not disagree with your FAF another very interesting one in a muddling race. I thought he travelled supremely well in the Tolworth and was going as well as Farren Glory when he came down (which is partly why i don’t wholly subscribe to the view FG would have won). Has King said the Supreme is the target?

Yes he name checked the supreme immediately after the race. Last time I looked he was 3 figures on the exchange

[Lobos]

Yep. Agree. I expect he was slightly undercooked as well yesterday and will strip fitter in March. He's still right in the mix

[Carnage at Taunton]

I’ve got THTN , Jango and F&F all at big prices, so nice to see them getting mentioned on here.
In an open year I’ve not given up on any of them turning up on the day and running a big race.
The ground is going to be a big thing as often is,form during the season might not define the race,eg… as Rooster said, F&F on better ground could well be interesting.

[Lobos]

Minella Missile....

"I'm just not happy with him," the Glamorgan trainer said. "I can't put my finger on it, it's just one of those things. I think it probably just took a lot out of him when he ran at Cheltenham.
"We were half looking to run him in the Challow or in the Relkeel, but the ground was a bit soft, and then I wanted to come to Trials day but we missed it, so there was no point in entering him at the festival.

"I didn't enter him into any of the novice races and he wouldn't qualify for the handicaps, so I'd prefer to not rev people up and just wait. The weather's been bad and we'd have needed a prep, so we just thought we'd train him for Aintree."

[jrjr]

Barring another run Jeriko will be going into the Supreme with a best RPR of 133..

[The Giant Bolster]

Barring another run Jeriko will be going into the Supreme with a best RPR of 133..

It's not a great sign. From the notes I've got, the lowest seasonal best RPR for a horse that won or place in the last seven years was 136. He's got some big trends to break now to get in the frame.

[Exar Essay]

It's not a great sign. From the notes I've got, the lowest seasonal best RPR for a horse that won or place in the last seven years was 136. He's got some big trends to break now to get in the frame.

I agree it doesn’t look great, but I suppose if he wins the Supreme, some of those RPRs may well be adjusted.

[TigerRolllllll]

He's been highlighted here but Boldog is being seriously overlooked if you like RPRs

Agree…..tho for me they are only a directional guide …..and Q is whether he can run to 150-155 needed to win

[TigerRolllllll]

I agree it doesn’t look great, but I suppose if he wins the Supreme, some of those RPRs may well be adjusted.

I agree he will likely improve a lot, specially given Nicky’s form is mixed

Would be huge for me, but if I’m honest I still can’t see how re gets to early150s min needed to win a Supreme

Just seems least as much potential in horses like Mystical & Ballyburn who are already running to mid 140s

[Quevega]

I think if we're honest.
The flirtation with the UK based novice hurdler's particularly over the 2 speedier divisions is looking over.
They've fully undressed and it turns out they've got a cock.

[Atlantic Viking]

Jeriko would be by some distance my best winner for the Supreme and I thought he was passing the eye test nicely initially, but looks like I need to go to specsavers. There was a little worry in the back of my mind on the 2nd run when they employed similar tactics, but yesterday was just bang average for the sort of level were talking about here. Even poor old much maligned Summerville Boy was posting bigger numbers. The novice hurdle divisions are almost making me pine for last years bumper market, piece of piss in comparison.

[Eggs]

….Dysart Eno’s now a best 4-1 MNH.

[Quevega]

….Dysart Eno’s now a best 4-1 MNH.

Another that's probably a stone short of his main rivals.