2024 Novice Hurdlers

[SeanRock]

Not sure you should be ignoring his other 4 wins.

The close proximity of some obvious future dour staying types would still be a worry especially given the way the race was run. Young Gleeson literally just followed Patrick around & tapped him for toe!

[Lobos]

Thoroughly enjoyed the debate guys. This is what the forum is all about.

[Kautostar]

Thoroughly enjoyed the debate guys. This is what the forum is all about.

Absolutely Lobos, now let’s see how your boy runs on weds

[Lobos]

Absolutely Lobos, now let’s see how your boy runs on weds

No pressure

[JackieMoon33]

Novice as in Hurdles and Fences JM ??

Yes both disciplines. It makes backing novice chasers difficult for me, especially the Arkle. I tend to focus on the BANC as there is usually good ante post value there.

[Lobos]

Yes both disciplines. It makes backing novice chasers difficult for me, especially the Arkle. I tend to focus on the BANC as there is usually good ante post value there.

Fair play. I always aim to return 20 pts minimum per every horse I back. As a single I'd not go lower than around 4's as that would mean a fairly hefty stake for me to bring that up to the 20 pts level and I don't feel comfortable doing that. Interesting to hear different people's strategies.

ADTS is currently the shortest price I've taken at 7's

[Eggs]

….interesting to see what ‘win today’ price is on offer for ADTS next Wednesday. I doubt they’d be taking any risks.

[Lobos]

….interesting to see what ‘win today’ price is on offer for ADTS next Wednesday. I doubt they’d be taking any risks.

Good shout though for those that have missed decent prices. They may offer around 6/7's perhaps.

[JackieMoon33]

Fair play. I always aim to return 20 pts minimum per every horse I back. As a single I'd not go lower than around 4's as that would mean a fairly hefty stake for me to bring that up to the 20 pts level and I don't feel comfortable doing that. Interesting to hear different people's strategies.

ADTS is currently the shortest price I've taken at 7's

I wouldn’t call mine a strategy
Just chasing a dream whilst maintaining an interest in NH racing.

[Rooster Booster]

As it stands he is a flat horse running in flat races benefitting from his flat breeding.

This has given him an advantage up to now. All the horses he has beat now have the advantage on breeding and they don’t need to turnaround form by a huge amount. If this fella is 4/5 in a place to win a supreme what price would trueshan have been if he had switched? How would Trueshan have fared in the bumper?

Until I see him jump at speed I cannot justify a penny on him at a single figure price. I’m very happy to be proven wrong as I love the horse (helped in no small part by the fact that I fluked the DRF Cheltenham double at stupid odds.) but I’d MUCH rather increase my stake and take reduced odds having seen him jump under pressure first. I’m a big fan of measured risk taking but not in the hurdle race that probably puts more emphasis on slick quick hurdling than any other novice hurdle race of the season and not with flat bred horses at single figure prices prior to jumping a hurdle in public.

GL of course to all those that have already taken the plunge. He certainly adds spice to the race as it stands.

[Runragged]

Great debate on ADTS. I would be against him at his current price for a couple of reasons, both of which have been mentioned. Firstly, his breeding is very flat based so no surprise he was a very good in bumpers. There is a danger that those with a more stouter jump breeding could well improve past him when he has an obstacle in his way. The other is the record of Bumper winners going on to win the Supreme. I don't care about how good a horse turns out to be or ones that went on to win the Ballymore, that's irrelevant as we are assessing his price to win the Supreme. Geez, only 1 of the last 10 winners even ran in the Champion bumper the previous year when Appreciate It was runner up. Therefore to me too much emphasis is put on the Champion Bumper form when it comes to pricing up this race. At this stage he looks a very vulnerable favourite.

[Bollinger]

I've not backed A Dream to Share yet.
But I've mentioned before that he deserves probably more respect for his bumper season than most recent bumper winners.
He won them all, in different circumstances.
He beat several of Willie's, and Willie sent out a lot of bumper horses last season. The forum is well aware of this as we backed the fucking lot, along with around half dozen of elliots
Compare that to the year Envoi Allen won the bumper and he barely had any bumper runners due to the ground, all season. And still nearly won it with blue sari (his only runner, compared to 10 this year), from a future 2 time winner at the festival.

I think 5-1 is a fair price given his record so far. As the Supreme looks very likely the target.
But the caveat would be that his breeding means he has to show some natural jumping ability ideally. High Definition is a good example of how jumping matters.

The other caveat is regarding his price, in that Mullins almost certainly will bring one or two out before or around xmas that help to keep his price competitive. A Henderson novice or an exceptional looking UK alternative is also possible.
His price ought to remain reasonable, At least until prior to Dublin, and it's at this stage that he might enter most people's pick's/bets.
Unless he comes out in his maiden and then graded race and looks different class (which is possible)

Agreed with ‘Q’ here - I do believe A Dream to Share does deserve a touch more respect for his achievements thus far.

It’s also interesting to note that by this very day 2 years ago, the very large majority, if any, of us had heard of a little horse called Constitution Hill.

2 years later, and he’s the only example of a horse on here that’s got his own specific thread, due to his quality , and potential timeless greatness going forwards.

Very, very early days yet.

As Nicky H was no doubt thinking smarmly to himself, this time 2 years ago.

[Leman14]

I think that that is exactly the point though....


A Dream To Share has achieved a great deal in his bumper season and deserves respect.

BUT

There are still a whole host of P2P horses and French Imports who we haven't even heard of (or at the very least seen what they are capable of).
So 4/1 and 5/1 seem short when you don't know what you are up against.
It doesn't mean that he can't win, but I won't be getting involved just yet.


NB. We can "justify" taking even shorter odds around Novice Chasers/Open Chasers, as we are confident that we know what our chosen horse is likely to be up against.

[ComplyOrDie]

Indeevar Bleu not declared, instead the same colours are represented by a different horse. They've also got one declared for div 2 of the maiden hurdles, the race after.

[Ray]

I also don't get this dislike/non trust every year of the Cheltenham Festival Bumper form. If you look at the winners going back over the years they have consistently proved top class the following season and some beyond.

but usually they have NH jumps pedigrees, this is a flat bred horse thats the distrust in him