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I also don't get this dislike/non trust every year of the Cheltenham Festival Bumper form. If you look at the winners going back over the years they have consistently proved top class the following season and some beyond.
There’s some truth in this, although rarely
do champion bumper winners prove to be top class Supreme horses, they usually prove their ability over further and one or two behind ADTS are being touted as Ballymore/Potato horses…
I also don't get this dislike/non trust every year of the Cheltenham Festival Bumper form. If you look at the winners going back over the years they have consistently proved top class the following season and some beyond.
The guts of 5/6 lengths covering the first 6 in tough soft going would lend itself to the idea it wasn’t a fantastic renewal, that plus Willie/Patrick not really being able to decipher the yards pecking order & the betting backing that up!
I also don't get this dislike/non trust every year of the Cheltenham Festival Bumper form. If you look at the winners going back over the years they have consistently proved top class the following season and some beyond.
The last four years have, champagne fever in 2012 and cue card/al ferof 2010. Pretty bleak in between, I guess it’s like any race you’ll have strong and weak renewals but you won’t know how strong they are until the season gets going and the form franked.
There’s some truth in this, although rarely
do champion bumper winners prove to be top class Supreme horses, they usually prove their ability over further and one or two behind ADTS are being touted as Ballymore/Potato horses…
Not sure about that Ista. I'd say more winners have gone on to run in the following years Supreme. I don't see ADTS as anything but an out and out 2 miler.
The guts of 5/6 lengths covering the first 6 in tough soft going would lend itself to the idea it wasn’t a fantastic renewal, that plus Willie/Patrick not really being able to decipher the yards pecking order & the betting backing that up!
The last four years have, champagne fever in 2012 and cue card/al ferof 2010. Pretty bleak in between, I guess it’s like any race you’ll have strong and weak renewals but you won’t know how strong they are until the season gets going and the form franked.
Yep.....but by then it could be too late and any value gone. Might as well just wait until the week itself and forget AP. It's a gamble but then that's the game we are in. You just have to trust your judgement and go with it which of course we all do.
Not sure about that Ista. I'd say more winners have gone on to run in the following years Supreme. I don't see ADTS as anything but an out and out 2 miler.
Who was the last horse to do the bumper/Supreme double, Champagne Fever ?
i can only think of him and Montelado who have done the double…
Yep.....but by then it could be too late and any value gone. Might as well just wait until the week itself and forget AP. It's a gamble but then that's the game we are in. You just have to trust your judgement and go with it which of course we all do.
Has the value not already well gone? Best price 4/1 with a cashout firm, you're going to be very tight on any sort of cover on anything else to reap a profit.
12/1 is my minimum ante post price for novice races at this time of year. If ADTS was that price he’d probably be in my top 3 for the Supreme. But I don’t build a book and only piss around at ante post so my view on price would be different to most.
I still stand by all the risks attached to him and the current 4/1 makes me want to vomit. But to each their own.
Has the value not already well gone? Best price 4/1 with a cashout firm, you're going to be very tight on any sort of cover on anything else to reap a profit.
If anyone fancied him to follow up in the Supreme then the 10's/8's clearly should have been snapped up. He should not have been that price based on his Bumper RPR. 9/2 may well turn out to be incredibly good value yet but it's not as appealing obviously.
12/1 is my minimum ante post price for novice races at this time of year. If ADTS was that price he’d probably be in my top 3 for the Supreme. But I don’t build a book and only piss around at ante post so my view on price would be different to most.
I still stand by all the risks attached to him and the current 4/1 makes me want to vomit. But to each their own.
If anyone fancied him to follow up in the Supreme then the 10's/8's clearly should have been snapped up. He should not have been that price based on his Bumper RPR. 9/2 may well turn out to be incredibly good value yet but it's not as appealing obviously.
Yeah is that not kinda the point though? Very few (it seems) FJ's decided to take the 8s/10s as they didn't think it was great value 12months out, and now before the season has began, he's halved in price again with absolutely no reason as to why. There's been no main protagonists deemed OFTS, early race switches for prominent ones in the market etc.
Yeah is that not kinda the point though? Very few (it seems) FJ's decided to take the 8s/10s as they didn't think it was great value 12months out, and now before the season has began, he's halved in price again with absolutely no reason as to why. There's been no main protagonists deemed OFTS, early race switches for prominent ones in the market etc.
I think he's halved in price simply because the 10's/8's was far too big and incredible value which was rightly snapped up by those who rated him. I'm not sure what price Vega, Envoi or Sir Gerhard were early doors but I'll hazard a guess it was a lot shorter than 10's. I don't see what the difference is in what those 3 did as Bumpers compared to ADTS. Probably just down to the Trainer's and the hype maybe.
I've not backed A Dream to Share yet.
But I've mentioned before that he deserves probably more respect for his bumper season than most recent bumper winners.
He won them all, in different circumstances.
He beat several of Willie's, and Willie sent out a lot of bumper horses last season. The forum is well aware of this as we backed the fucking lot, along with around half dozen of elliots
Compare that to the year Envoi Allen won the bumper and he barely had any bumper runners due to the ground, all season. And still nearly won it with blue sari (his only runner, compared to 10 this year), from a future 2 time winner at the festival.
I think 5-1 is a fair price given his record so far. As the Supreme looks very likely the target.
But the caveat would be that his breeding means he has to show some natural jumping ability ideally. High Definition is a good example of how jumping matters.
The other caveat is regarding his price, in that Mullins almost certainly will bring one or two out before or around xmas that help to keep his price competitive. A Henderson novice or an exceptional looking UK alternative is also possible.
His price ought to remain reasonable, At least until prior to Dublin, and it's at this stage that he might enter most people's pick's/bets.
Unless he comes out in his maiden and then graded race and looks different class (which is possible)
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