2024 Novice Hurdlers

[charlie]

I agree he was impressive, he could go either race, the debate will rumble on.
I think he surprised them how easily he beat ballyburn yesterday.
The "we thought he needed two and a half miles" comment probably has something to do with him being a half brother to the bosses oscar. Not anything he has done
himself?
One thing for sure, He was impressive.

I'm often guilty of over analysing trainer comments but I don't think we need to guess on this one as Gordon ended the sentence with 'which is why we made the running'. Thats important context as Gordon is saying they went from the front in order to win the race because they think he's a 2 and half miler. Given how he settles, jumps and looks like a real galloper, that view makes sense and will stand him in good stead over slightly further. I am probably a bit bias on this and struggle backing Elliott horses for the Supreme, its just not a race I associate him having much success in.

[Joleg]

Does anyone have any info on the wellbeing of Gaucher, you'd think that if all is well an entry must be imminent

[AaronLad]

I'm often guilty of over analysing trainer comments but I don't think we need to guess on this one as Gordon ended the sentence with 'which is why we made the running'. Thats important context as Gordon is saying they went from the front in order to win the race because they think he's a 2 and half miler. Given how he settles, jumps and looks like a real galloper, that view makes sense and will stand him in good stead over slightly further. I am probably a bit bias on this and struggle backing Elliott horses for the Supreme, its just not a race I associate him having much success in.

Hmmm interesting you say think(present), when gordon himself has said thought(past)

[DenmanSacre]

I didn't watch it live but watched it this morning.

I said in the daily thread both would be grade 1 class. Final circuit time was much slower than the rated novice hurdle over further but from 3 out to the line they were over 20 lengths quicker. Fan of Answer to Kayf, who finished 2nd yesterday in the rated novice and beat What's Up Darling previously over 2m, so pretty good to put that much into him in that space of time.

I don't think the race would have suited either to be a crawl and sprint. Firefox was race fit and jumped the second last better, which proved the difference. I'm not sure Elliott has a proper Supreme candidate so Firefox may end up there to be split from Down Memory Lane but he'd have to show what he can do off a stronger pace. He is in the Future Champion on the 27th so I'd expect him to go there. Ultimately though I think he'd be better in the Ballymore.

Ballyburn will come on for it (drifted markedly near the off) but was untidy at a few. I'd keep him at 2 for his maiden hurdle next time.

[Craigy14]

Does anyone have any info on the wellbeing of Gaucher, you'd think that if all is well an entry must be imminent

Not heard anything Joleg, no mention in any of the tours either and not given the early entry at Xmas.

Now he could just go for a maiden then upped in grade afterwards but I cashed him a while back, price isn’t going anywhere either.

[Quevega]

I was talking about this at the weekend the record of losers first time out. I think difference is ferny won a champion bumper and we had a much better idea that he was likely top drawer. Bob getting close to him was seen very positively at the time. we are making that assumption for Firefox but have much less idea what level he is capable of. I dont think people could be as positive about ballyburn in relation to Firefox and they could bob in relation to ferny.

This is the key.
Some will believe or hope that we have 2 top class horses like in the Ferny/Bob example.
Whilst it's possible for sure, it's odds against, so probably makes more sense to be cautious.

I also thought Ballyburn seemed quite relaxed going a steady gallop, but this may not be the case as when they travel like that they are sometimes keener than they look. And sometimes not.

[AnFiieLD.]

Agree with the sentiments of others on here that it’s pretty clear Ballyburn’s future lies over further. Whilst I do think he’ll improve for the run I wouldn’t be surprised if Ile Atlantique and Predators Gold take higher rank than him come the end of the season. Was really impressed with both of the mentioned debuts. Question as ever is which races they end up in!

[Brooksie]

Agree with the sentiments of others on here that it’s pretty clear Ballyburn’s future lies over further. Whilst I do think he’ll improve for the run I wouldn’t be surprised if Ile Atlantique and Predators Gold take higher rank than him come the end of the season. Was really impressed with both of the mentioned debuts. Question as ever is which races they end up in!

My long range forecast subject to change (probably a lot of change)


Supreme

Willie's - Mirazur West, Mystical Power, Daddy Long Legs
Gordon's - Firefox, Farren's Glory (if good enough)

Ballymore

Willie's - Ballyburn, Predators Gold
Gordon's - Down Memory Lane, King of Kingsfield (probably not good enough)

AB

Willie's - Ile Atlantique (Allaho 2.0), High Class Hero
Gordon's - Stellar Story, Croke Park

Will come back to this in March and have a good laugh at how wrong I was

[Runragged]

Not so sure about that. Willie described him as a 'dual purpose' horse which indicates all speed and a future over the minimum trip. Also, Paul said (post debut) 'he quickened well' plus it was a decent time. All that (plus breeding but I wouldn't be too sure) points to a future over the minimum trip but nothing would surprise me tbh. You're right though re a below par run at Xmas, that will be the big test on where his future lies.

Yeah, quickening well is a prerequisite of a Ballymore horse in my book. Supreme is run at a fast pace throughout so often need some stamina and the ability to travel, Ballymore you must have the speed for 2m but the ability to quicken off a slow pace. It's a rule I have followed for a fair while now with good success, particularly in the Ballymore. That's not to say where they will run but I would be far more confident from what little we have seen already that DLL would have a far better chance in the longer race.

[Runragged]

Only managed to watch the races this morning and chose to watch without being influenced by any comments on here. I thought Firefox got the run of the race in front and the only difference between the pair was the mistake Ballyburn made at the 2nd last where he lost ground and momentum. The slow pace of the race and the sprint the race turned into is probably why it was physically impossible for Ballyburn to get back up on Firefox. He wasn't getting away anyway. Considering Firefox also had the benefit of a run, then I would be confident of Ballyburn reversing positions.

Then we come to the trip. Both horses seem capable of sprinting though not easy to gauge when it is two horses pulling away together. Though both are expected to do better over further. The big thing with Ballyburn was how he settled as it was thought he would be pretty keen, one reason why the Supreme was put forward I believe. Can't say I was too keen with his head carriage but shouldn't be a problem over hurdles. Think it is more likely Ballyburn will step up in trip as Firefox hurdled the better of the two which is pretty vital in a Supreme. None of this is taking into consideration other plans for yard and owner runners which is even harder to predict at this stage.

[Rooster Booster]

I was hoping for a big run from encanto but looking at the first few races I’m not liking the ground for him at all.

[Kevloaf]

Until about 3 minutes ago I've been on the opinion this race is irrelevant for the festival and now I'm panicing

[Zachx02]

How good is daddy long legs?

[DenmanSacre]

Until about 3 minutes ago I've been on the opinion this race is irrelevant for the festival and now I'm panicing

Probably is irrelevant after that.

Daddy Long Legs tied in with Farren Glory through Irish Panther - you'd think he'd be too much for them over 2 miles.

[Craigy14]

Until about 3 minutes ago I've been on the opinion this race is irrelevant for the festival and now I'm panicing

I’d agree and although I was maybe a little wrong re farren glory with Lobos last night, don’t think any of those win at Cheltenham, although An Tobar needs further.

The closeness of King Of Kingsfield makes that a poor race imo.

If anything Slade Steel supreme might be the best bet post race, HDB’s Surpreme horse if anything.