2024 Novice Hurdlers

[Many Clouds]

I really really like Mistergif and think he's going to run a big race, hurdles brilliantly for a novice - handicapper esque and the conditional on him the last day was really impressed, think I read he couldn't pull him up on heavy ground! Also has 3 runs over hurdles counting the 2 in France so isn't coming in inexperienced

Totally agree I really like him, I think the race is wide open and he looks like one that could improve massively. Looks very speedy. Already have him onside but think I'll be throwing my Skybet risk free fiver on him and doubling him up with a few in the Arkle.

[Unexposed]

The more i look at this the more i think Slade Steel is the obvious rock solid candidate. Would any of these lot have finished closer to Ballyburn at Leopardstown? I'm not convinced

[Kevloaf]

The more i look at this the more i think Slade Steel is the obvious rock solid candidate. Would any of these lot have finished closer to Ballyburn at Leopardstown? I'm not convinced

Well, yeah?

Firefox is closely enough tied having finished ahead of him it's pretty silly to dismiss him being able to get within 7 lengths of Ballyburn for starters.




Being beaten 7L by Ballyburn, isn't magical form IMO.

It might be the best form line, but I'm not convinced that any of the others couldn't have gotten that close. Mystical Power put well fancied horses away easily?

[archie]

After the stable tours, my two main takeaways were:
- Gordon said Firefox was below par and scoped badly at Naas. They expect an improved performance in the Supreme.
- Willie did exactly as I'd hoped and left options wide open for Ballyburn while tilting heavily towards the Supreme for Mystical Power.

On that basis, I'd be even more expectant that Ballyburn will go to the Ballymore but the clincher for me is his breeding. By Flemensfirth out of an Old Vic mare just screams stamina. His 2 mile form probably already makes him the best 2 mile hurdler by the sire and he is most likely to be better over further. He has several full siblings who are all best at 2m6f or further.

They can't be sure that he can turn round the form with a fully firing Firefox who will surely force the pace but they seem to have the BB field covered. Of course, this is just where we are now and is exactly why no decision will be made until the last minute.

I feel bound to quote my post from 13th February with a full-on Kryten smug mode emoji. I haven't had a bet in either race but I did put him in the Gallagher in the DG prediction comp.

[Lobos]

I feel bound to quote my post from 13th February with a full-on Kryten smug mode emoji. I haven't had a bet in either race but I did put him in the Gallagher in the DG prediction comp.

Yep, spot on Arch. Hopefully many followed your advice.

[kariminal29]

I like slade steel and was quite sweet on him for the Gallagher or whatever it’s called now. Not convinced he’s quite up to winning a 2m supreme. They were strongly hoping ballyburn stuck in the supreme so they can go to the race they had targeted with slade steel. They are only racing in this to avoid running against Bally and not for the reason that it’s his best distance. Would love jeriko to be good enough but I’m a little skeptical and has loads to find (not impossible). I see this race going like this. Tullyhill goes off and tries to get a nice lead like he did last time but Firefox doesn’t let him and sits just off him applying a bit of pressure and takes it up at the last but Mystical power sits a bit further behind, gets bumped along a few times but stays within striking distance. Firefox is all out and mystical power takes it on the line. Well that was my dream last night anyway

[Dandrew99]

Really struggling to get my head around how Firefox is 7/2 here...

He's only won a maiden hurdle. Yes granted it was against Ballyburn, but I think everyone is in agreement that Ballyburn was nowhere near 100% that day. It was a two horse race that turned into a sprint, whereas the Supreme is likely to be a strong end to end gallop. The form of his early season bumper hasn't exactly worked out great either, the 2nd and 3rd have apparently run around 10 pounds better than their career bests. Every reason that the race would have suited Ballyburn can equally be applied to Slade Steel IMO, full of stamina and you probably want a horse that stays 2 and a half for the Supreme.

Mystical Power has won a grade 2
Tullyhill won arguably the best novice hurdle aside from for 2m at the DRF
Slade Steel has won a grade 2 (over 2m4) and 2nd in a grade 1
Jeriko Du Reponet has won a grade 2

Don't disagree with him being in the mix, but really struggling to see why he's 2nd fav ahead of the ones above.

[Runragged]

Really struggling to get my head around how Firefox is 7/2 here...

He's only won a maiden hurdle. Yes granted it was against Ballyburn, but I think everyone is in agreement that Ballyburn was nowhere near 100% that day. It was a two horse race that turned into a sprint, whereas the Supreme is likely to be a strong end to end gallop. The form of his early season bumper hasn't exactly worked out great either, the 2nd and 3rd have apparently run around 10 pounds better than their career bests. Every reason that the race would have suited Ballyburn can equally be applied to Slade Steel IMO, full of stamina and you probably want a horse that stays 2 and a half for the Supreme.

Mystical Power has won a grade 2
Tullyhill won arguably the best novice hurdle aside from for 2m at the DRF
Slade Steel has won a grade 2 (over 2m4) and 2nd in a grade 1
Jeriko Du Reponet has won a grade 2

Don't disagree with him being in the mix, but really struggling to see why he's 2nd fav ahead of the ones above.

Fully agree with this. I also think if Ballyburn hadn't of made the mistake two out where he lost 2 1/2 lengths then he may well of won. Certainly once Ballyburn gets back up to full speed then the gap between the pair barely changes. Fair enough if got big prices but his current price is easily the worst out of those at the front of the market.

[TigerRolllllll]

Really struggling to get my head around how Firefox is 7/2 here...

He's only won a maiden hurdle. Yes granted it was against Ballyburn, but I think everyone is in agreement that Ballyburn was nowhere near 100% that day. It was a two horse race that turned into a sprint, whereas the Supreme is likely to be a strong end to end gallop. The form of his early season bumper hasn't exactly worked out great either, the 2nd and 3rd have apparently run around 10 pounds better than their career bests. Every reason that the race would have suited Ballyburn can equally be applied to Slade Steel IMO, full of stamina and you probably want a horse that stays 2 and a half for the Supreme.

Mystical Power has won a grade 2
Tullyhill won arguably the best novice hurdle aside from for 2m at the DRF
Slade Steel has won a grade 2 (over 2m4) and 2nd in a grade 1
Jeriko Du Reponet has won a grade 2

Don't disagree with him being in the mix, but really struggling to see why he's 2nd fav ahead of the ones above.

Just been talked up by stable a lot

His first run was right up there with first runs expect from a Supreme winner, but to get to price u effectively have to replace the second run with a 145+ run

The value to me is Slade Steel, who has some of best form in book as is twice the price …even backable ew if like that approach

I suspect market will change with Tullyhill (Paul choice) or Slade Steel (Rachael factor) going off fav

It is a v tough race to call, but could be great to watch

[Dandrew99]

Just been talked up by stable a lot

His first run was right up there with first runs expect from a Supreme winner, but to get to price u effectively have to replace the second run with a 145+ run

The value to me is Slade Steel, who has some of best form in book as is twice the price …even backable ew if like that approach

I suspect market will change with Tullyhill (Paul choice) or Slade Steel (Rachael factor) going off fav

It is a v tough race to call, but could be great to watch

Agreed on all...

IMO should be Tullyhill/Mystical fav, Slade Steel 3rd, then Jeriko/Firefox in the 6-8/1 range.

[SeanRock]

Really struggling to get my head around how Firefox is 7/2 here...

He's only won a maiden hurdle. Yes granted it was against Ballyburn, but I think everyone is in agreement that Ballyburn was nowhere near 100% that day. It was a two horse race that turned into a sprint, whereas the Supreme is likely to be a strong end to end gallop. The form of his early season bumper hasn't exactly worked out great either, the 2nd and 3rd have apparently run around 10 pounds better than their career bests. Every reason that the race would have suited Ballyburn can equally be applied to Slade Steel IMO, full of stamina and you probably want a horse that stays 2 and a half for the Supreme.

Mystical Power has won a grade 2
Tullyhill won arguably the best novice hurdle aside from for 2m at the DRF
Slade Steel has won a grade 2 (over 2m4) and 2nd in a grade 1
Jeriko Du Reponet has won a grade 2

Don't disagree with him being in the mix, but really struggling to see why he's 2nd fav ahead of the ones above.

Tullyhill won a race where No Flies On Him drifted like a barge & ran like it was warranted, he also made a bad mistake at the last which flattered the winning distance considerably.

The rest were non triers & were after lenient handicap marks imo. cant have him in the Supreme. Even if hegot an uncontested lead in front he doesn’t jump well enough to make that pay.

Mystical Power will get lit up with the first race excitement/frenzy & won’t jump well enough either, JDR/Firefox will be travelling in the pocket behind the two Mullins runners along with Slade Steel & should come off the pace to challenge strongly before the last. That’s how it plays out in my head anyway fwiw!

[Dandrew99]

Tullyhill won a race where No Flies On Him drifted like a barge & ran like it was warranted, he also made a bad mistake at the last which flattered the winning distance considerably.

The rest were non triers & were after lenient handicap marks imo. cant have him in the Supreme. Even if hegot an uncontested lead in front he doesn’t jump well enough to make that pay.

Mystical Power will get lit up with the first race excitement/frenzy & won’t jump well enough either, JDR/Firefox will be travelling in the pocket behind the two Mullins runners along with Slade Steel & should come off the pace to challenge strongly before the last. That’s how it plays out in my head anyway fwiw!

Don't disagree on NFOH, but he's still a better horse than most others in the race have beaten, hard to argue otherwise. Jigoro was beaten further than Mystical Power did, Westport Cove may have been running for a handicap mark but he is a decent horse, Boldog was quite fancied by a few on here and only on his 2nd race so he wasn't running for a handicap mark. Won't make a case for the others

All in the Supreme have a few question marks, struggle to see how you can't have him at all though. His jumping is a question but he's got the best engine in the race IMO. Don't quite get how you can rubbish that form while also thinking that JDR/Firefox's form holds up, there's holes to be had in all of them. But in terms of best horses in behind, can you name a better form line from a novice hurdle? Outside of the Grade 1/2s?

[SeanRock]

Don't disagree on NFOH, but he's still a better horse than most others in the race have beaten, hard to argue otherwise. Jigoro was beaten further than Mystical Power did, Westport Cove may have been running for a handicap mark but he is a decent horse, Boldog was quite fancied by a few on here and only on his 2nd race so he wasn't running for a handicap mark. Won't make a case for the others

All in the Supreme have a few question marks, struggle to see how you can't have him at all though. His jumping is a question but he's got the best engine in the race IMO. Don't quite get how you can rubbish that form while also thinking that JDR/Firefox's form holds up, there's holes to be had in all of them. But in terms of best horses in behind, can you name a better form line from a novice hurdle? Outside of the Grade 1/2s?

The graded hurdles have to be analysed with how they were run & the fields that contested the races rather than on merit of their status. The Lawlors was the best novice trial of the season along with the DRF 2m. There was no hiding place & Gordon’s were under a cloud at the time. JDR hasn’t had a proper truely run race to be judged yet.

[Quevega]

The graded hurdles have to be analysed with how they were run & the fields that contested the races rather than on merit of their status. The Lawlors was the best novice trial of the season along with the DRF 2m. There was no hiding place & Gordon’s were under a cloud at the time. JDR hasn’t had a proper truely run race to be judged yet.

Yeah, I'd all but written him off when he didn;t pull away at Donny, but the subsequent form forces a little rethink and a supreme test could potentially see him perform better.
Still doubt it but wouldn't be as adamant as I was post Doncaster.

[Zachx02]

I was never that high on Tullyhill, but looking into the race more now, I'm coming around to home and one key part of that being that he's the only horse in the race rated higher than the magic 150 BHA OR