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Ultimately you're putting it down to Ile Atlantique being better than Tullyhill - which he may well be.... but being SP fav in the first race on Tues or Weds I doubt would have much impact
On this, Ile Atlantique and Reading Tommy Wrong pulled 7l clear of Lecky Watson in the Lawlors. Slade Steel only beat Lecky by 0.5l before that at Naas.
Is it possible that the two in the Lawlors are being underrated given Slade Steel is supposedly best of the rest outside of Ballyburn?
I still think it will be willie making the final decision and not Townsend, if ballyburn goes baring bingham then willie has the favs in both the sup and bb if ballyburn goes supreme then he doesnt...PT will have an input but willie winning both those races is higher on the agenda than PT winning em both.
The way I see it, Slade Steel is the biggest danger to Willie not winning both races. You know Ballyburn has him covered.
It may not work out like this of course, but to me it's fairly clear cut that Willies best chance of winning both races is Mystical Power, Tullyhill and Mistergif in the Supreme, with Ballyburn and Ile Atlantique in the BB. I would have very little confidence that Ile Atlantique (who has very questionable ability to get it done at the end of his races) beating the likes of Slade Steel.
You might also force Slade Steel to dodge Ballyburn and go to the Supreme where he would be less effective. Although I do think 20/1 is a lovely Antepost price for him in the Supreme with a related double on Ballyburn.
Struggling to see Willie running Mystical Power anywhere other than the Supreme, has he ever ran an unbeaten horse in the BB that has never ran over anything further than 2m?
He's said Tullyhill probably goes Supreme now.
His options are either
A) Strong favourite in the Supreme with probably two other horses in the top 4 of the betting in Mystical Power and Tullyhill, and chuck in Mistergif as a very lively outsider, with Ile Atlantique in the BB who would probably be 2nd favourite at best.
B) 2 of the top 3 (at worst IMO) in the Supreme with Mistergif as an outsider, a very strong favourite in the BB and Ile Atlantique as the support.
Would be a very easy choice if it was me. But of course it's not down to me
On this, Ile Atlantique and Reading Tommy Wrong pulled 7l clear of Lecky Watson in the Lawlors. Slade Steel only beat Lecky by 0.5l before that at Naas.
Is it possible that the two in the Lawlors are being underrated given Slade Steel is supposedly best of the rest outside of Ballyburn?
Slade steel wont have liked the ground in that race and pulled most of the way around so did well to win
Without Ballyburn in the Supreme though he could be on Ile Atlantique or Tullyhill in an open looking Supreme with an even stronger 'banker' on Day 2
I don't think we have enough evidence to support your theory having any merit really.
I'm sure he'd like the fav in every race, but the horses going to the races where they have the best chance will surely be his thought process
Ultimately you're putting it down to Ile Atlantique being better than Tullyhill - which he may well be.... but being SP fav in the first race on Tues or Weds I doubt would have much impact
I think as a jockey Townend would like being on a very strong fave in the first race and getting the meeting off to a flyer if possible, and getting a win on the board asap to ease the pressure a little. That may not come into it at all, but from what I've heard from townend/ruby over the years I think that is important to them.
And it would seem like he'd either start off on a very strong fave in Ballyburn vs tullyhill, Firefox, jeriko etc., or, start off on tullyhill who imo would either be not as strong a fave as Ballyburn or not fave at all vs mystical power, Firefox, jeriko and Slade steel probably, as I think Slade steel and mystical likely go supreme if Ballyburn goes baring Bingham.
Either way he'll have good chances in both races, it's just an inkling I have that he'd like what he'd probably consider his banker in the first race.
I think it's impossible to call and one of them is likely to not be totally sound when they make the decision. So will alter things anyway.
So everyone should really go to bed, and not get up until Declarations.
Does Patrick get second choice now at the big festivals or what was going on at the drf?
If that is the case, then if your a backer of tullyhill or ile Atlantique your desperate for them to go for the same race as mystical power, as whoever goes with Ballyburn could end up with Patrick on board.
I think as a jockey Townend would like being on a very strong fave in the first race and getting the meeting off to a flyer if possible, and getting a win on the board asap to ease the pressure a little. That may not come into it at all, but from what I've heard from townend/ruby over the years I think that is important to them.
And it would seem like he'd either start off on a very strong fave in Ballyburn vs tullyhill, Firefox, jeriko etc., or, start off on tullyhill who imo would either be not as strong a fave as Ballyburn or not fave at all vs mystical power, Firefox, jeriko and Slade steel probably, as I think Slade steel and mystical likely go supreme if Ballyburn goes baring Bingham.
Either way he'll have good chances in both races, it's just an inkling I have that he'd like what he'd probably consider his banker in the first race.
I think he's vulnerable in the Supreme, and much better chance in the BB myself.
If I had a gun to my head though I'd say Ballyburn Supreme is more likely right now.... but that is the last I'll say on it as I do have no idea and have covered all options anyway so I'm not going to add much value
I would argue that Mullins likes to run his best novice in the Supreme. Invariably it is his highest rated horse (Though not last year on official ratings as Gaelic Warrior (157) was above Facile Vega (155)). Even when he lost the Supreme (Dysart Dynamo 152) and won the Ballymore (Sir Gerhard 151) he still had his highest rated horse in the Supreme. I think he likes to make his mark on the Festival and win the first race rather than shuffle his pack to give himself the best chance of winning both novice races. In which case he could well run Ballyburn and Tullyhill in it if he thinks that race suits them. Though it was a decent performance from Tullyhill I would be surprised if he wasn't still a few pounds off Ballyburn.
I think he's vulnerable in the Supreme, and much better chance in the BB myself.
If I had a gun to my head though I'd say Ballyburn Supreme is more likely right now.... but that is the last I'll say on it as I do have no idea and have covered all options anyway so I'm not going to add much value
I'd agree, especially if there's not much cut in the ground on the first day. It's just I get the feeling they themselves think he'll just win either race, in which case I think they may elect to try to start off the meeting with their banker, but that's just a personal hunch.
I would argue that Mullins likes to run his best novice in the Supreme. Invariably it is his highest rated horse (Though not last year on official ratings as Gaelic Warrior (157) was above Facile Vega (155)). Even when he lost the Supreme (Dysart Dynamo 152) and won the Ballymore (Sir Gerhard 151) he still had his highest rated horse in the Supreme. I think he likes to make his mark on the Festival and win the first race rather than shuffle his pack to give himself the best chance of winning both novice races. In which case he could well run Ballyburn and Tullyhill in it if he thinks that race suits them. Though it was a decent performance from Tullyhill I would be surprised if he wasn't still a few pounds off Ballyburn.
Going off Jigoro rating (141 IRE) you'd expect Ballyburn (155 IRE) to be around 5/6 lbs clear of both Tullyhill and Mystical, with Tullyhill a couple ahead of Mystical, say 150 - 148.
And going off Lecky Watson (IRE 143) you'd have to think Ile Atlantique and Readin Tommy are around the 148-150 mark also.
Slade Steel (146 IRE)
Then the UK handicapper will have his opinion and probably add a pound or 2 on each of those.
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