2024 Novice Hurdlers

[Run4Home]

Out of interest, purely theoretical so ignore the specifics of this year. If Willie has 2 absolute good things (say MP looked as good as Ballyburn has) so wanted to split between Supreme and BB, but that meant Paul didn't get a decent ride in one of the races, but running them against each other meant Paul did get a good ride in both races, how would you expect that to play out?

Your comment about Paul deciding then Willie splitting just intrigued me, as I expected Willie to split based on his opinion then jockeys to fall out of that, with some form of discussion before of course.

Way it would usually works is based on the work in the weeks coming up to the race (although plenty times it'll be obvious) - Paul splits the 2 he wants/can ride they wouldn't be JP horses and then Willie decides where to send the 2 horses with the input. It suits owners and Willie as they get Paul on the best 2 chances to win the races so won't mind which race.

JP just operates diff.as he is the only owner where Paul won't ride so he can go eitherway with his without impacting Paul and splitting his horses across diff. stables.

My guess is JP too will want to avoid Ballyburn even though he is seen as a 2m horse. No idea as they haven't decided yet it'll become clearer in next few weeks but logically thinking if you are Willie you'd send a good second bullet with IA wouldn't you as BB can take out whichever race and if JP you'd avoid BB. Depends suppose where RTA goes too

[Odin]

Way it would usually works is based on the work in the weeks coming up to the race (although plenty times it'll be obvious) - Paul splits the 2 he wants/can ride they wouldn't be JP horses and then Willie decides where to send the 2 horses with the input. It suits owners and Willie as they get Paul on the best 2 chances to win the races so won't mind which race.

I love how one simple sentence can completely invalidate a season's worth of thinking regarding how horses get split up. Oh well, I'll be better for it next year.. thank you

[Dandrew99]

Way it would usually works is based on the work in the weeks coming up to the race (although plenty times it'll be obvious) - Paul splits the 2 he wants/can ride they wouldn't be JP horses and then Willie decides where to send the 2 horses with the input. It suits owners and Willie as they get Paul on the best 2 chances to win the races so won't mind which race.

JP just operates diff.as he is the only owner where Paul won't ride so he can go eitherway with his without impacting Paul and splitting his horses across diff. stables.

My guess is JP too will want to avoid Ballyburn even though he is seen as a 2m horse. No idea as they haven't decided yet it'll become clearer in next few weeks but logically thinking if you are Willie you'd send a good second bullet with IA wouldn't you as BB can take out whichever race and if JP you'd avoid BB. Depends suppose where RTA goes too

Much appreciated mate. Good to try and understand the thought process behind it.

One other question if you don't mind... assuming JP had two good darts at the race (such as Mystical and potentially Jeriko), would Walsh automatically get first dibs regardless? Or is there more thought put into it?

Using this year as an example, could Walsh be told to ride Jeriko so that Paul could ride Mystical and he has two good jockeys booked on his two horses? I know he would have Nico to ride Jeriko in this example, but ignore that bit

[Run4Home]

Much appreciated mate. Good to try and understand the thought process behind it.

One other question if you don't mind... assuming JP had two good darts at the race (such as Mystical and potentially Jeriko), would Walsh automatically get first dibs regardless? Or is there more thought put into it?

Using this year as an example, could Walsh be told to ride Jeriko so that Paul could ride Mystical and he has two good jockeys booked on his two horses? I know he would have Nico to ride Jeriko in this example, but ignore that bit

Obviously it could but just can't see it playing out like that as JP will only give Walsh the Irish horses and use stable jockeys in the UK for the most part unless there are injuries.
In all honestly I don't think JP have ever shown to care much about having Paul on, he stays loyal to the group he uses when they are available.

[Dandrew99]

Obviously it could but just can't see it playing out like that as JP will only give Walsh the Irish horses and use stable jockeys in the UK for the most part unless there are injuries.
In all honestly I don't think JP have ever shown to care much about having Paul on, he stays loyal to the group he uses when they are available.

Yeah, with Nico around I didn't see it playing out like that either, it was more if there wasn't an obvious top tier jockey to ride his UK based horse, which obviously isn't the case with Nico.

Your responses really are massively appreciated, whether it be stuff like this or the info you get. Massively insightful

[Craigy14]

Yeah, with Nico around I didn't see it playing out like that either, it was more if there wasn't an obvious top tier jockey to ride his UK based horse, which obviously isn't the case with Nico.

Your responses really are massively appreciated, whether it be stuff like this or the info you get. Massively insightful

Sure JP decided when Barry retired he wouldn’t have a retained jockey and he would leave it up to trainers.

[Quevega]

No Flies on Him at 25-1 Ballymore is a decent NRnB play right now.

If he wins the race at Punchestown this weekend really well then they may send him over. If he loses I cannot see them bringing him over, unless there is a good excuse.

If the win happens and he comes over - it's hard to see JP running three (assuming they all stay sound) in the one race so either Mystical or Flies step up to the ballymore.
He could run 3 of course, and he could move Mystical, but it's NRNB.

He brings another form line to the race also.

I have all other options covered so thought this would be a good addition for my situation, but it looks a good NRNB play anyhow.

[Studfarm254]

Has Captain Teague confirmed he’s been targeted at the AB? Bits of blue about on oddschecker and 11 on the exchange which is as short as I’ve seen him, whereas he’s out to 80 for the BB. Wouldn’t be in love with the horse but he’s one id be kicking myself if he won and I didn’t at least have a cover bet on him

[fatherjohn]

Has Captain Teague confirmed he’s been targeted at the AB? Bits of blue about on oddschecker and 11 on the exchange which is as short as I’ve seen him, whereas he’s out to 80 for the BB. Wouldn’t be in love with the horse but he’s one id be kicking myself if he won and I didn’t at least have a cover bet on him

in betfair podcast they had Charlie from Nicholls yard saying he thought that would possibly be target and surprised at his price. doesn't take much to move so could be that

[Studfarm254]

No Flies on Him at 25-1 Ballymore is a decent NRnB play right now.

If he wins the race at Punchestown this weekend really well then they may send him over. If he loses I cannot see them bringing him over, unless there is a good excuse.

If the win happens and he comes over - it's hard to see JP running three (assuming they all stay sound) in the one race so either Mystical or Flies step up to the ballymore.
He could run 3 of course, and he could move Mystical, but it's NRNB.

He brings another form line to the race also.

I have all other options covered so thought this would be a good addition for my situation, but it looks a good NRNB play anyhow.

Just want to say I’ve been very impressed with your posts Quevega, sometimes you remind me of myself your that good. Very very well done indeed!

[Istabraq]

Just want to say I’ve been very impressed with your posts Quevega, sometimes you remind me of myself your that good. Very very well done indeed!

I had an Elegant Escape/Big Fish cold sweat reading that….

[Birds Nest]

I had an Elegant Escape/Big Fish cold sweat reading that….

Elegant escape..what a character !!

[Quevega]

Has Captain Teague confirmed he’s been targeted at the AB? Bits of blue about on oddschecker and 11 on the exchange which is as short as I’ve seen him, whereas he’s out to 80 for the BB. Wouldn’t be in love with the horse but he’s one id be kicking myself if he won and I didn’t at least have a cover bet on him

Think Segal might have tipped him up, but not certain.

[Quevega]

Just want to say I’ve been very impressed with your posts Quevega, sometimes you remind me of myself your that good. Very very well done indeed!

You've got potential

[Odin]

Think Segal might have tipped him up, but not certain.

Can confirm.

Also gidleigh park same race