2024 Novice Hurdlers

[ComplyOrDie]

Mirazur taken out the Supreme market

Pretty much says Mystical Power will turn up for JP for Walsh to ride in the race now.

[ComplyOrDie]

On a line through Ballyburn I suppose

Has Ballyburn run against Ile Atlantique then?

[NeptuneByANose]

Likely one for book builders... No Caldwell Potter has left me scanning the Exchange for big odds about who could be Elliot/Kennedy's number one in the Baring Bingham. We knew he was their number one, and we know Firefox was Supreme bound (50/1 antepost and 64/1 exchange still available would suggest that this is still the plan). With Firefox already covered any race on my part, I am left wondering who else does that leave for Elliot? Some quick thoughts:

• Staffordshire Knot: Uninspiring RPRs but his hurdle debut behind Reading Tommy Wrong looks better form now and he is a bigger price than some other horses in the market who have also easily won nothing maidens (e.g. Billericay Dickie). Big money was paid at the auction to keep him in the yard. He might be better for a trip, too. 99/1 on the Exchange seems huge for the shortest Elliot horse in general markets. Taken 0.3pts worth.
• Search For Glory: Not for me.
• Croke Park: Excuses were made after the Lawlors, but he is another who is probably more Bartlett than Baring Bingham.
• Farren Glory: Always preferred his chances in the BB over the Supreme, but bleeding last time out is far from ideal. Still, I could see him going here now and I suspect he would enjoy the trip. His form through King of Kingsfield looks alright from the Royal Bond, where he was value for more than the winning margin I feel, and he was sent off shorter than Slade Steel at the DRF. I remember reading here that there were tentative intentions from connections to go the BB route; given I don't have him covered at all, the 79/1 on the Exchange is a tempter for the book. Taken 0.3pts worth.
• Brighterdaysahead: Goes Mares Novice surely.
• Firefox: Addressed above but big prices on the Exchange if cover was desired.
• Jigoro: Not for me.
• Stellar Story: Not for me - comfortably held by Slade Steel, too.
• What's Up Darling: Not for me.

I've taken these Exchange fliers in case Ballyburn goes to the Supreme and the race subsequently looks more open. I'd still be all over Slade Steel, but I've built a strong position on him and I'd like to have the Elliot/Kennedy number one covered. Unless I've missed anyone, it does look reasonable that Staffordshire Knot and Farren Glory would be Kennedy's No.1 options in the absence of Firefox to the Supreme. If so, 79/1 and 99/1 Exchange fliers seem good book cover to me.

Farren Glory out of the festival, Firefox scratched from the BB and Staffordshire Knot scratched from the supreme but not the BB (encouraging sign!). Hoping that 99/1 will give me run for my money and very possible he will be Gordon’s number 1 if going now.

[Quevega]

You took so long I was sure you'd been googling looking for something

[Quevega]

Pretty much says Mystical Power will turn up for JP for Walsh to ride in the race now.

Just the O' grady horse that might step in if he looks good this weekend.

[Lobos]

Has Ballyburn run against Ile Atlantique then?

Dont know. Just think punters are of the opinion that Ballyburn is far superior to Il Atlantique which is why Slade Steel is ahead of him in the market.

[Lobos]

You took so long I was sure you'd been googling looking for something

Fuck that.........

[Benjy23]

Mirazur West being taken out of the Supreme but left in the Ballymore is a bit odd. He'd been weak in both markets. 25s NRNB anyway.

[TigerRolllllll]

Mirazur West being taken out of the Supreme but left in the Ballymore is a bit odd. He'd been weak in both markets. 25s NRNB anyway.

RTC has him scratched from both

[Quevega]

https://www.irishracing.com/racecards/Sun-18th-Feb-2024/Punchestown/1505

Punchestown Sunday, last trial for some possibly flyers.

[kinloch brae]

The very briefest of returns, only because I feel strongly about the Ballyburn 'choice' story.

Problem is, I don't see a choice at all, or at least there should never have been one.

At the start of the start of the season I think a rookie trainer would have seen Ballyburn as a strong stayer, and a potential Gold Cup horse. Unfortunately, Mullins didn't. That's why we now have all the speculation that could so easily been avoided. He could/should have started at the intermediate trip, and sailed through the season unbeaten.

Instead we got all the nonsense about him pulling hard. Even if you accepted it was something more than a trait, which I don't, how was it an issue when the horse finished off his races always looking as if wanted further? It's just been a red herring for the trainer to hide behind.

So with the excuse in mind he started over a trip short of his best, and was unsurprisingly, outpaced by Firefox, again looking like he wanted further. On the day he was just beaten by a quicker horse.

He did then did step up in trip, and absolutely bolted up at Leopardstown, finishing off as if he could go round again. That may have been a small field, but visually that was by far his most impressive perfortmance.

Approaching the DRF a few pundits took a swing at the double figure price available for the Supreme, resulting in a manipulated price for that race. This idea was based on Mullins avoiding the 2m6f race (which would have been a far easier) and going for the 2m race. The second part of the plan would involve the horse winning, and Mullins going flakey on the idea of going Ballymore. That's if he hadn't already.

Of course he did win a very weak Grade 1. He had the run of the race in beating a horse who (like himself) wanted further. The second favourite ran no race, and likely the rest were a bunch of potential handicappers. The most interesting aspect was that he produced the weakest finish of his career. He wasn't pulling away from the second at the line. The likely explanation for that would be that he had gone faster than ideal to maintain a position.

I don't see him having the pace to be dropped out in a Supreme, so very likely he is going to have to use up even more petrol early race. That could well leave him vulnerable in a stronger race.

The choice is trying to get away with it in Supreme, or a very likely comfortable win in the Ballymore. Townend could dictate what happens in the Ballymore, but he wouldn't have anything like the same luxury in a Supreme. Why take that risk? Does anyone favoring the Supreme route think he wouldn't be an easier winner of Ballymore?

I think it boils down to Mullins trying to prove himself right, or the best novice of the season just winning the race that suits him best. You don't shuffle your best horse about, or at least you shouldn't do. Markets at the moment wouldn't indicate it, but he would go off a shorter price (and face a smaller field) for the Ballymore than the Supreme. No bookmaker wants to see him in the Ballymore, which is probably why we never see a graphic for that race.

The last horse to go on from a Supreme and win a Gold Cup was L'Escargot, over 50 years ago. That horse was freakish, and ran in a Champion Hurdle in his second season. Does anyone see Ballyburn going down that route?

[Quevega]

Lark in the morning got an entry in a wanky little maiden at Gowran Saturday.

[Benjy23]

RTC has him scratched from both

So does Betfair now. Didn't 15 minutes ago

[darlojim]

Lark in the morning got an entry in a wanky little maiden at Gowran Saturday.

Yepp theyre desperate to ensure he gets in Q

[Exar Essay]

Yepp theyre desperate to ensure he gets in Q

Surely he is fine? Rated 118 in Ireland. The British capper is very heavy handed with Juveniles. I can't see him getting less than 5lbs, probably more like 7lbs.