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2024 Novice Hurdlers

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  • Originally posted by Craigy14 View Post

    Wonder if she’s being aimed at the Ballymore.

    Elliott losing couple of his novices with Caldwell Potter and likely Farren Glory not making the festival, leaves him fairly short. Maybe feels with the 7lbs she could be more competitive at 2m5f.

    Mares Novice is 2m1f on the stiffer new course though.
    Fair point. I don't think that is the plan but I guess they could be convinced under the circumstances. Ballymore could've been an interesting NRNB but they've probably priced her tight enough there already at 14s.

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    • Originally posted by TigerRolllllll View Post

      Need to improve 10 pounds still to be competitive in BB & it’s not ideal to throw a novice in so deep early in career (I sound like Hendo )
      Agree on the improvement, but they are all novices tiger
      so that part doesn’t apply, you’re not Hendo.

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      • Few bookies now odds on Bally in Supreme…and shortest of all is PP
        Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)

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        • Originally posted by TigerRolllllll View Post
          Few bookies now odds on Bally in Supreme…and shortest of all is PP
          They are also the shortest for him in the Ballymore though.

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          • He really shouldn't be odds on for either race. Mental price.

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            • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
              He really shouldn't be odds on for either race. Mental price.
              Appreciate it went off odds on ….not that much to beat in Supreme…..must be about 10 pounds clear on ratings
              Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)

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              • Originally posted by TigerRolllllll View Post

                Appreciate it went off odds on ….not that much to beat in Supreme…..must be about 10 pounds clear on ratings
                Appreciate it Supreme was probably the worst quality Supreme I've ever witnessed. Not sure this year's race is anywhere close to being that bad. He's the likely winner but odds on with a month to go .........crazy.

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                • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                  Appreciate it Supreme was probably the worst quality Supreme I've ever witnessed. Not sure this year's race is anywhere close to being that bad. He's the likely winner but odds on with a month to go .........crazy.
                  It’s NRNB tbf but don’t disagree
                  Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)

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                  • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                    Appreciate it Supreme was probably the worst quality Supreme I've ever witnessed. Not sure this year's race is anywhere close to being that bad. He's the likely winner but odds on with a month to go .........crazy.
                    Facile Vega was odds on just after xmas last year I reckon.

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                    • I'm pretty sure this time of year is the absolute worst value betting wise, NRNB completely warping the market

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                      • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

                        Facile Vega was odds on just after xmas last year I reckon.
                        He was 11/10 at the start of December

                        Into evens just before Christmas and after his run, then everywhere was odds on by new year.

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                        • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                          He really shouldn't be odds on for either race. Mental price.
                          I think he wins wherever he goes, provided he stays up right, so for me he's slightly odds on to not fall.

                          His performances have him plenty clear of everything else we have seen.

                          I'm hoping there's some sort of boost on the day to get him odds against again, then I'll probably go in on him.

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                          • Originally posted by Dandrew99 View Post

                            He was 11/10 at the start of December

                            Into evens just before Christmas and after his run, then everywhere was odds on by new year.
                            Didn't end up well either !

                            As has been said, this time leading up to the Fez the prices are horrible (Handicaps aside). I suppose any AP work should be completed buy now anyway so it's just a 'let it all unfold' period from now on in.

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                            • Exchanges suggest Willie has been quite categorical with Ballyburn.

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                              • Originally posted by Quevega View Post
                                Exchanges suggest Willie has been quite categorical with Ballyburn.
                                Quite good idea if he has ….will then scare most of opposition away ….and leave himself a clearer field
                                Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)

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