2024 Novice Hurdlers

[Atlantic Viking]

Would you take Caldwell Potter to the Euros over Harry Maguire?

Id take Bannock Town there over Maguire and Henderson.

[giantcauseway]

I'd be a little more forgiving in this instance, although it's disappointing news for the festival.
I've no financial loss involved either so easier to stomach.
But having spent the best part of 3/4 million and just lost a horse worth a similar amount.
If Nicholls was suggesting he would have to alter/speed up his usual routine when welcoming a new horse into his yard to get him ready for Cheltenham then you can see why they may have been cool on the idea.
Fuck knows what they do with them, I thought they lounged about in their stable most days until a couple of weeks before a race odd swim now and then, massage, little trot round the yard, haircut etc.

I was fuming with the style of campaign from Nicholls for all of his big three. They've (Bravemansgame, Stage Star and Hermes Allen) disappointed in my view because Nicholls seem to simply switch up plans and think he can switch on and off. Afterthoughts simply doesn't work out in racing at Grade 1 or Group 1 level. I can see why they've turned it down though I'm not sure why they can't check with Gordon and I'm sure he'd help, what can be done to keep him ticking over. If not, fair enough but sticking to his plan gives the horse the best chance, whether we like it or not.

[Benjy23]

Seems a reasonable thing to do with a horse you've just got and has likely missed some training recently. Sure the owners are on board with it as well.

[Quevega]

I was fuming with the style of campaign from Nicholls for all of his big three. They've (Bravemansgame, Stage Star and Hermes Allen) disappointed in my view because Nicholls seem to simply switch up plans and think he can switch on and off. Afterthoughts simply doesn't work out in racing at Grade 1 or Group 1 level. I can see why they've turned it down though I'm not sure why they can't check with Gordon and I'm sure he'd help, what can be done to keep him ticking over. If not, fair enough but sticking to his plan gives the horse the best chance, whether we like it or not.

Yeah, I agree that he's made mistakes with his better horses this season for sure, time will tell if this costs them at the big festivals in Spring.

[Birds Nest]

I think most people knew caldwell would miss cheltenham when it was announced he was going to nichols , thats their decision of course to miss the festival but it would seem greatrex doesn't have the same problem with mighty bandit, no worries there about missed work etc..

[Benjy23]

I think most people knew caldwell would miss cheltenham when it was announced he was going to nichols , thats their decision of course to miss the festival but it would seem greatrex doesn't have the same problem with mighty bandit, no worries there about missed work etc..

And which of Nicholls and Greatrex would you back based on training success?

[YoungHustler]

I think most people knew caldwell would miss cheltenham when it was announced he was going to nichols , thats their decision of course to miss the festival but it would seem greatrex doesn't have the same problem with mighty bandit, no worries there about missed work etc..

Yep, I cashed my Caldwell Potter bets and rebacked NRNB after it was announced he was going to Nicholls. The silver lining is that there is now a small chance my Firefox bets for the Ballymore may not be dead if Gordon now aims him there instead of the Supreme(after losing CP). I think the 50s you can get with Betfair or Unibet is a massive price to chance he goes to the Ballymore.

[FinalFurlong91]

And which of Nicholls and Greatrex would you back based on training success?

Greatrex can train a good one when he gets one

Managed to get La Bague Au Roi to win a kauto star and flogas

He did admittedly ruin her career running her in that flogas on concrete

Won the stayers with Cole harden too

Obviously Nicholls is better but greatrex can train

Personally mighty bandit was at the top of my boodles list but wont get that third run now

[NeptuneByANose]

Likely one for book builders... No Caldwell Potter has left me scanning the Exchange for big odds about who could be Elliot/Kennedy's number one in the Baring Bingham. We knew he was their number one, and we know Firefox was Supreme bound (50/1 antepost and 64/1 exchange still available would suggest that this is still the plan). With Firefox already covered any race on my part, I am left wondering who else does that leave for Elliot? Some quick thoughts:

• Staffordshire Knot: Uninspiring RPRs but his hurdle debut behind Reading Tommy Wrong looks better form now and he is a bigger price than some other horses in the market who have also easily won nothing maidens (e.g. Billericay Dickie). Big money was paid at the auction to keep him in the yard. He might be better for a trip, too. 99/1 on the Exchange seems huge for the shortest Elliot horse in general markets. Taken 0.3pts worth.
• Search For Glory: Not for me.
• Croke Park: Excuses were made after the Lawlors, but he is another who is probably more Bartlett than Baring Bingham.
• Farren Glory: Always preferred his chances in the BB over the Supreme, but bleeding last time out is far from ideal. Still, I could see him going here now and I suspect he would enjoy the trip. His form through King of Kingsfield looks alright from the Royal Bond, where he was value for more than the winning margin I feel, and he was sent off shorter than Slade Steel at the DRF. I remember reading here that there were tentative intentions from connections to go the BB route; given I don't have him covered at all, the 79/1 on the Exchange is a tempter for the book. Taken 0.3pts worth.
• Brighterdaysahead: Goes Mares Novice surely.
• Firefox: Addressed above but big prices on the Exchange if cover was desired.
• Jigoro: Not for me.
• Stellar Story: Not for me - comfortably held by Slade Steel, too.
• What's Up Darling: Not for me.

I've taken these Exchange fliers in case Ballyburn goes to the Supreme and the race subsequently looks more open. I'd still be all over Slade Steel, but I've built a strong position on him and I'd like to have the Elliot/Kennedy number one covered. Unless I've missed anyone, it does look reasonable that Staffordshire Knot and Farren Glory would be Kennedy's No.1 options in the absence of Firefox to the Supreme. If so, 79/1 and 99/1 Exchange fliers seem good book cover to me.

[Exar Essay]

NeptuneByANose I was having similar thoughts this morning but from a slightly different angle. I was wondering whether Firefox will still go to the Supreme.

All the relevant interviews saying he was likely to go to the Supreme were before Cladwell Potter took his leave and before Farren Glory bled. It was also before Ballyburn put in a performance which propelled him to even money favourite for the Supreme. With that new information to hand, will Gordon be tempted to divert Firefox to the Ballymore? I’d give him a good chance against the likely field in a Ballymore, but he’d be running for 2nd in the Supreme, assuming that is the way Ballyburn goes.

I know Cullentra always thought of Firefox as a stayer and he, along with all of Gordon’s at the time of the Lawlors, seemed to have their excuses for running so significantly below par. I think it unlikely that the trip is or was an issue.

With King of Kingsfield running so well recently too, they’d have a decent runner in the Supreme still.

I could see Jack’s rides being:

Supreme - King Of Kingsfield
Ballymore - Firefox
AB - Croke Park

[DenmanSacre]

NeptuneByANose I was having similar thoughts this morning but from a slightly different angle. I was wondering whether Firefox will still go to the Supreme.

All the relevant interviews saying he was likely to go to the Supreme were before Cladwell Potter took his leave and before Farren Glory bled. It was also before Ballyburn put in a performance which propelled him to even money favourite for the Supreme. With that new information to hand, will Gordon be tempted to divert Firefox to the Ballymore? I’d give him a good chance against the likely field in a Ballymore, but he’d be running for 2nd in the Supreme, assuming that is the way Ballyburn goes.

I know Cullentra always thought of Firefox as a stayer and he, along with all of Gordon’s at the time of the Lawlors, seemed to have their excuses for running so significantly below par. I think it unlikely that the trip is or was an issue.

With King of Kingsfield running so well recently too, they’d have a decent runner in the Supreme still.

I could see Jack’s rides being:

Supreme - King Of Kingsfield
Ballymore - Firefox
AB - Croke Park

That's how I'd see it. Although he may be on Farren Glory in the Supreme if he makes it to Cheltenham.

[NeptuneByANose]

NeptuneByANose

I could see Jack’s rides being:

Supreme - King Of Kingsfield
Ballymore - Firefox
AB - Croke Park

100% plausible - and I am probably coming at it from a personal/selfish angle of already having Firefox covered should he now revert to the BB. However, if I wasn't in that position, he would've been another that I'd have taken the big Exchange prices on earlier today. So whichever way you envisage him going, Gordon's BB principle was/is likely sitting on the Exchange at big prices.

Tangentially speaking, I think they are likely to want to go wherever Ballyburn doesn't, but I suspect most will be of that way of thinking. However, Firefox has ultimately beaten Ballyburn over 2m and, while that statement is completely devoid of the context of that race (race fitness, improvement, etc.), he is still the only horse to finish in front of Ballyburn in the latter's career.

With that in mind, they might be inclined to stick with Firefox in the Supreme on the odd chance that he might be able to beat Ballyburn should he turn up there, rather than relying on King of Kingsfield who, based on all available evidence, they will know is not quite good enough at the top level and certainly wouldn't get near Ballyburn.

[Benjy23]

She's priced like she'll walk it today but I'm not sure 2m 5f on heavy ground is an ideal prep for a 2m festival race for Brighterdaysahead.

[Craigy14]

She's priced like she'll walk it today but I'm not sure 2m 5f on heavy ground is an ideal prep for a 2m festival race for Brighterdaysahead.

Wonder if she’s being aimed at the Ballymore.

Elliott losing couple of his novices with Caldwell Potter and likely Farren Glory not making the festival, leaves him fairly short. Maybe feels with the 7lbs she could be more competitive at 2m5f.

Mares Novice is 2m1f on the stiffer new course though.

[TigerRolllllll]

Wonder if she’s being aimed at the Ballymore.

Elliott losing couple of his novices with Caldwell Potter and likely Farren Glory not making the festival, leaves him fairly short. Maybe feels with the 7lbs she could be more competitive at 2m5f.

Mares Novice is 2m1f on the stiffer new course though.

Need to improve 10 pounds still to be competitive in BB & it’s not ideal to throw a novice in so deep early in career (I sound like Hendo )