2024 Novice Hurdlers

[Craigy14]

Yeah couldn't have him for a supreme after that run I'd say, looked like he wasnt far off being off the bridle for a couple strides before the turn in to me, although could well just have been race fitness and greenness still I suppose. But another furlong and a smidge in the Bally be perfect for him

Aye slightly longer in the Ballymore but just didn’t see that turn of foot I’d like to see for that race.

Could be the ground so give him the benefit of doubt but I’d be cashing out supreme bets if I had any, imo of course

I was similar to others thoughts about Hermes Allen last year and thought he went to the wrong race, looked a 3m horse to me. Maybe this guy will have a nice turn of foot on better ground, we’ll see.

[opatcho]

CT a no goer for me here, antepost wise for ballymore. Looks a 3 miler, and will be (Sorry to use this word) destroyed for pace in the Ballymore

[Eggs]

Aye slightly longer in the Ballymore but just didn’t see that turn of foot I’d like to see for that race.

Could be the ground so give him the benefit of doubt but I’d be cashing out supreme bets if I had any, imo of course

I was similar to others thoughts about Hermes Allen last year and thought he went to the wrong race, looked a 3m horse to me. Maybe this guy will have a nice turn of foot on better ground, we’ll see.

….I cashed my Supreme cover (40-1) for a small profit but the reaction afterwards suggested they think he could be a bit good.

Cobden said the ground was much heavier than he thought. He also said it’s the first time he’s run on grass and he beat a couple of decent ones. He ‘took a real blow’ between the last 2 fences and idled a bit in front.

Nicholls also mentioned his inexperience, he’s never jumped a fence on grass. He did suggest he’s one to jump a fence. Challow Hurdle the target, so I expect they’re thinking mid-distance this season (rather than coming back in distance).

[willpaterson]

To my relatively untrained eye, I’d say the way he went over the hurdles was suggestive he’d suit fences better and would be vulnerable to the slicker hurdlers this season

[ComplyOrDie]

I thought Captain Teague was plenty good enough today for a debut over hurdles. I thought it looked a tricky enough start for him, but he got the job and done it well.

As it stands I couldn't discount him from any race.

That ground was soft enough, to effectively blunt any speed, but at the same time he stuck to the task well.

I, like a few on here, like a horse with a proper turn of foot for the Ballymore, regardless of what ground they run on, and I didn't see that today from him, nor did I see it from him as a bumper horse, so, despite not discounting him from ending up in any race, this would be the one I'd be least keen on him for.

[Irish Rugby]

…..CT a general 12-1 Bally (best 14-1 Hills) after that win. General 16-1 Supreme but bits of 20-1 available.

That's appalling value. Felt like commentators wanted to see a super performance from a horse that was best placed UK trained in the Bumper. Ok, he scooted clear, but we'll see many more convincing novice hurdle wins over the next 6-8 weeks.

Feels also as if many are treating this meeting like a 2 day parade of potential stars, in the same way Downpatrick here had become for Gordon's battalions.

That said, the benchmark has been set.

[FinalFurlong91]

He looked like a future chaser in build

Big leggy and clueless at times

But these doyens do tend to fizzle out

Something more streetwise will beat him at Cheltenham, if he even runs

[Benjy23]

I think you could easily blame the ground for him not having an obvious turn of foot to immediately go clear. He traveled through the race like a quick horse though, and closed the gap on the leader very easily (and quickly). And sounds like he wasn't even close to 100% fit. Think it's highly likely he wins the Challow and goes to Cheltenham as the undefeated and best English trained horse... We know what usually happens next but we also know that means he'll be going off a short enough price in comparison to those available now.

I've already got better so I don't need it but I don't think 14s is too bad. Certainly compared to plenty of other prices out there.

It is the classic race where confirmation bias is in full flow though. From those who have backed him and also those that were against him. Don't think he's changed anyone's mind in either camp. Be plenty more like that!

[AaronLad]

Captain Teague, impressive winner of the persian war yesterday.

His hurdling certainly needs to improve. But in a better race, where he may well be able to travel how he’d like (prominent) , rather than being ridden held up, his jumping could become slicker but I'd like to see it first.


I think it's worth noting that paul nicholls has had a runner in each of the last 9 renewals of the persian war before yesterday. All of them had already been novice hurdlers the previous season.

2022 outlaw peter - 4 previous hurdle runs

2021 paso doble - 2

2020 mcfabulous - 4

2019 Trevelyn’s corn - 3

2018 secret investor - 7

2017 amour du nuit - 8

2016 el bandit - 5

2015 emerging talent - 4

2014 vicente - 6


What does this mean? Probably not a lot but in 2013 paul nicholls had a runner called caesar milan, who started 11/8f, he had been unbeaten the previous season for ian ferguson in 2 bumpers. He was beaten 60 lengths, finishing 7th of 7 and was reported to have bled post race.


He surely thinks a lot of Captain Teague to pitch him straight into the persian war from a bumper season considering the above.

[The Giant Bolster]

Looks to me like Thyme Hill is the only other horse to win the Persian War on their hurdling debut in the last ten years. And Captain Teague did win well there.

Personally I am not rushing to back him any more than the free bets I've used for the Ballymore. WTAF at the Challow might be the way to go in the future.

It's a boost to the Bumper form though.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I’m not sure whether CT’s price now is value, only time will tell me that for sure.
I do know though that those shorter than him in the Bally market have yet to jump a hurdle in public.
He has, and although he was not perfect at some, he did win by a fair margin going away on ground that was pretty soft.

[Lobos]

Looks to me like Thyme Hill is the only other horse to win the Persian War on their hurdling debut in the last ten years. And Captain Teague did win well there.

Personally I am not rushing to back him any more than the free bets I've used for the Ballymore. WTAF at the Challow might be the way to go in the future.

It's a boost to the Bumper form though.

Good spot re Thyme Hill. He too finished 3rd in the Cheltenham Bumper and of course went on to run a close 4th in one of the best Albert races in recent times after winning the Challow. Ummmmmmm

[Rooster Booster]

If CT isnt a quicker horse than thyme hill I’ll make myself not hit the mute button every time Ed chamberlain talks….or when mark johnstone commentates…..or when Simon holt (lately he has been abysmal) commentates…….or when Tom Stanley fails to appreciate he is no longer a teenager …..or when Dave Nevison (tries) to talk or indeed when his his lips are moving but no sound is forthcoming because he hasn’t turned his microphone on for the 767th time that day or when Niall Hannity or Fran Berry merge countless words together somehow forgetting that the main purpose of communication is to convey information and meaning…… or that commentator whose name has escaped me sounds surprised every time a horse reminds him they are running in the race.

If it weren’t for nick luck, Angus Mcnae Jerry Hannon and Gary O’brien my life would be over.

[Craigy14]

Good spot re Thyme Hill. He too finished 3rd in the Cheltenham Bumper and of course went on to run a close 4th in one of the best Albert races in recent times after winning the Challow. Ummmmmmm

It’s a fair point and the types nicholls has aimed at the challow recently, with a little hindsight, I think his types would be better suited to the Albert Bartlett than the Ballymore. Hermes Allen, Bravemansgame, the way they’ve both won the challow on testing ground comfortably indicates that to me anyway. After Brave the year before and the way Hermes went through his races it was fairly clear to me he was going to the wrong race in the Ballymore.

To think, would they have had a better chance in the Albert Bartlett each year, absolutely imo.

Edit - just to add, I think Captain Teague will have more pace than the 2 above, but ultimately not the pace required to win a Ballymore imo.

[Lobos]

Forget the Festival......I'm still waiting for the price on CT to win the 2025 King George. That's the one. Won't be long before PN namechecked it for him. Eggs will find it.......