2024 Novice Hurdlers

[ComplyOrDie]

If he doesn't win at the DRF he wouldn't win either the Supreme or ballymore would he?

So regardless what you're on him for you want him to win

If he went close against a stable mate, say Daddy Long Legs, or something else you'd fancy for the Supreme, then I guess you could make allowances, but yeah, it's certainly not ideal to be beat prior to the festival.

[charlie]

I think Ballyburn is Willie's best novice hurdler, and what Willie normally does is goes to the easiest race for his best one, as a general rule, IMO.

If Jeriko wins the Sidney Banks well, Willie will go down the Ballymore route with Ballyburn, regardless of how he runs at the DRF. He done the same with Sir Gerhard, avoiding Constitution Hill, he done the same with Appreciate It, avoiding Bob Olinger. He wants to give his best one the best chance of winning, and there'll be no stamina doubts for Ballyburn for either race.

Of course, it could be a case of Gidleigh Park dotting up on trials day and Jeriko disappointing in the Sidney Banks, in which case, he may well end up in the Supreme, again, regardless, of what happens at the DRF.

If both Jeriko and Gidleigh win well I think he'd much prefer to avoid a Hendo Supreme horse than a Harry Fry Ballymore horse.

I wouldn't take what he does at the DRF as a definitive, as to what race he will end up in. Sir Gerhard bolted up in the race and went for the Ballymore. Because it's over 2m people will automatically assume he'll end up in the Supreme. It's not the case with Willie. He's sent a few to the Ballymore after winning this race (some over the 2m2f trip, before it was shortened).

Even as a Ballymore only backer, I still want him to win at the DRF, but I also want Jeriko to piss in in the Sidney Banks.

I agree that Willie will go for the easiest race but I'm not sure thats the Supreme as it stands.

Re JDR I don't think avoidance will factor into Willie's decision making process. Even with a bold showing in the Sidney Banks it could be impossible to know how good a showing that is based on the dross opposition we have over here, and JDR is no Constitution Hill or BO.

If avoidance does occur I think it's more likely to come with separating his own. Willie has the top 3 in the betting in the Ballymore and RTR looked really good at Naas, represents last year's winning connections, is 4/4 and just posted an RPR of 149 which is the best of Willies novices so far. As it stands, right now, I'd far rather take on JDR over 2m than RTR over 2m5f, if I were Willie. The market is telling us Ballyburn will run over 2m at the DRF and whilst Willie has then gone up in trip with some, he sticks at 2m with more winners of than he doesn't.

If we assume that Ballyburn wins at the DRF, I think the manner of the win that will dictate what they do next. He can race freely and if he shows the same tendency at the DRF but wins well then I can't envisage a scenario where they want to go further. If he matures and settles, then I can totally see them going up in trip and going to the Ballymore mob handed.

Time will tell.

[ComplyOrDie]

Even with a bold showing in the Sidney Banks it could be impossible to know how good a showing that is based on the dross opposition we have over here, and JDR is no Constitution Hill or BO.

I don't disagree with this, however, I'd factor in what Nicky Henderson has achieved in the Supreme as well, and the fact he knows what it takes to win one, as opposed to what Harry Fry has achieved. We don't know for sure whether Willie even thinks about this (probably unlikely), but it wouldn't surprise me if it was in the back of his mind somewhere. Without being too disrespectful of Harry Fry, I know which one I'd prefer to face (I'm sure I'm not alone on this, either).

If avoidance does occur I think it's more likely to come with separating his own. Willie has the top 3 in the betting in the Ballymore and RTR looked really good at Naas, represents last year's winning connections, is 4/4 and just posted an RPR of 149 which is the best of Willies novices so far. As it stands, right now, I'd far rather than on JDR over 2m than RTR over 2m5f, if I were Willie. The market is telling us Ballyburn will run over 2m at the DRF and whilst Willie has then gone up in trip with some, he sticks at 2m with more winners of than he doesn't.

I think this is probably where we differ the most. I wasn't taken with the Lawlors Of Naas, and the RPR for the race is actually quite low. Champ Kiely recorded the same RPR last season and finished 3rd in the Ballymore, Ginto hit a 147 and went to the Bartlett because connections knew he was too slow for a Ballymore, Bob Olinger and Envoi Allen both hit low to mid 150's, that's the area the sort of figure I'd be looking at for a Ballymore from that race. Readin Tommy Wrong's performance just screamed stayer to me.

I don't think it matters that Willie has the top 3 in the betting either, he ran 4 in the race last season, despite dominating the majority of the market pre festival.

If we assume that Ballyburn wins at the DRF, I think the manner of the win that will dictate what they do next. He can race freely and if he shows the same tendency at the DRF but wins well then I can't envisage a scenario where they want to go further. If he matures and settles, then I can totally see them going up in trip and going to the Ballymore mob handed.

He can race freely, not nearly as bad as Gaelic Warrior last season, IMO, and he still went to the Ballymore having never tried a trip beyond 2m. At least with Ballyburn we know he has been over the intermediate trip, and a fairly taking performance at that. Recording a 145 (just 4lbs lower than RTW who won a G1) in a maiden is no mean feat.

[charlie]

I don't disagree with this, however, I'd factor in what Nicky Henderson has achieved in the Supreme as well, and the fact he knows what it takes to win one, as opposed to what Harry Fry has achieved. We don't know for sure whether Willie even thinks about this (probably unlikely), but it wouldn't surprise me if it was in the back of his mind somewhere. Without being too disrespectful of Harry Fry, I know which one I'd prefer to face (I'm sure I'm not alone on this, either).



I think this is probably where we differ the most. I wasn't taken with the Lawlors Of Naas, and the RPR for the race is actually quite low. Champ Kiely recorded the same RPR last season and finished 3rd in the Ballymore, Ginto hit a 147 and went to the Bartlett because connections knew he was too slow for a Ballymore, Bob Olinger and Envoi Allen both hit low to mid 150's, that's the area the sort of figure I'd be looking at for a Ballymore from that race. Readin Tommy Wrong's performance just screamed stayer to me.

I don't think it matters that Willie has the top 3 in the betting either, he ran 4 in the race last season, despite dominating the majority of the market pre festival.




He can race freely, not nearly as bad as Gaelic Warrior last season, IMO, and he still went to the Ballymore having never tried a trip beyond 2m. At least with Ballyburn we know he has been over the intermediate trip, and a fairly taking performance at that. Recording a 145 (just 4lbs lower than RTW who won a G1) in a maiden is no mean feat.

Solid counter COD

[ComplyOrDie]

Mystical Power given an RPR of 144 for the win in the Moscow Flyer, still a fair way from that magical 150 figure usually required for a Supreme, and also 5lbs less than Impaire Et Passe who ran in an equally weak Moscow Flyer last season.

[Zachx02]

Mystical Power given an RPR of 144 for the win in the Moscow Flyer, still a fair way from that magical 150 figure usually required for a Supreme, and also 5lbs less than Impaire Et Passe who ran in an equally weak Moscow Flyer last season.

I'd honestly be surprised if there's a single 150+ horse in the supreme this year, maybe ballyburn if he runs as he won his maiden with a 145 RPR

[charlie]

Mystical Power given an RPR of 144 for the win in the Moscow Flyer, still a fair way from that magical 150 figure usually required for a Supreme, and also 5lbs less than Impaire Et Passe who ran in an equally weak Moscow Flyer last season.

Worth highlighting that IEP had had a run prior to Moscow Flyer, posting 143 on debut before running to an RPR of 149.

I know MP ran over the summer to an RPR of 126 but 144 on a seasonal reappearance is very good isn't it?

MN ran to 125, 147 and then 158 when winning the Supreme.

IMO it's reasonable to think 150+ is well within Mystical Powers grasp given how easily he won, coupled with some of the mistakes he made and lots of Willies coming on for a run.

They also think he'll be better on spring ground which could unlock further improvement. Really hope we see him again.

[ComplyOrDie]

I'd honestly be surprised if there's a single 150+ horse in the supreme this year, maybe ballyburn if he runs as he won his maiden with a 145 RPR

Ballyburn certainly has the potential. All bar Klassical Dream that have won the 2m at the DRF has been given a 150+ RPR since it became a 2m race.

Whatever wins it is likely to breach that mark.

I also suspect the handbrake will be off of Jeriko in the Sidney Banks so that connections can see what he can do, and in this instance he could break a 150+ performance too.

Not much else other than these two races that I can see a 150+ for a potential Supreme candidate now.

[ComplyOrDie]

Worth highlighting that IEP had had a run prior to Moscow Flyer, posting 143 on debut before running to an RPR of 149.

I know MP ran over the summer to an RPR of 126 but 144 on a seasonal reappearance is very good isn't it?

MN ran to 125, 147 and then 158 when winning the Supreme.

IMO it's reasonable to think 150+ is well within Mystical Powers grasp given how easily he won, coupled with some of the mistakes he made and lots of Willies coming on for a run.

They also think he'll be better on spring ground which could unlock further improvement. Really hope we see him again.

These are all fair points.

Personally, I think Mystical Power would fair better in a Ballymore, but the way connections made it sound like he'd be kept to the minimum for now, and he's probably not likely going to be seen until Cheltenham, so that says Supreme to me.

[Lobos]

I'd honestly be surprised if there's a single 150+ horse in the supreme this year, maybe ballyburn if he runs as he won his maiden with a 145 RPR

The winner of the 2 miler at DRF will probably end up getting 150+ but only by default because it's the DRF.

[Guinness Village]

To my eye, ballyburn is nailed on for the ballymore. Because he lost his maiden first time up , he was run in a 2m4f maiden, rather than a 2m4f graded race. If he had won the lawlors of naas, then there wouldn’t be any speculation now. Willie will now want him to win a graded race before the festival. The longer race is for spud and pipe horses. So the 2m race is the pick. This in no way infers that he will run in the supreme.
If Willie thought that he was a supreme horse, he would’ve run him in a 2m next time out.
just my way of thinking

[Exar Essay]

The winner of the 2 miler at DRF will probably end up getting 150+ but only by default because it's the DRF.

I think this is right. But fair enough too if Caldwell Potter and Ballyburn turn up. They're 149 and 145. If one of them wins or runs their race and gets beat, the winner probably deserves a 150+ rating.

[ComplyOrDie]

The winner of the 2 miler at DRF will probably end up getting 150+ but only by default because it's the DRF.

Yeah, I said this above, all bar Klassical Dream achieved the 150+ for winning the race, since it's become run over 2m.

[Lobos]

I think this is right. But fair enough too if Caldwell Potter and Ballyburn turn up. They're 149 and 145. If one of them wins or runs their race and gets beat, the winner probably deserves a 150+ rating.

149 gained in deep mud for Potter. Be interesting what he does in better ground. He's one I'm still to decide on. Supreme is a mess of a race for me so reluctant to make it messier!!

[Lobos]

Yeah, I said this above, all bar Klassical Dream achieved the 150+ for winning the race, since it's become run over 2m.

Yeah, missed that. It's why I prefer to just use my eyes as opposed to focus entirely on ratings.