2024 Novice Hurdlers

[ComplyOrDie]

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/daryl-jacob-on-readin-tommy-wrong-intense-raffles-and-matata/215170

at this stage sounds more like Ballymore

Yeah, I've no doubt it will be Ballymore to be honest, Q. Just my own opinion of course, as to which way he should go, basically just agreeing with Daryl Jacob

[ComplyOrDie]

Mystical Power looked the real deal to me. We've been waiting for a novice hurdler to stick their head above the parapet and that was it IMO. If he'd done everything right and quickened like that id have thought 'nice performance' but the fact he was keen and didn't jump with great fluency but still found that injection of pace at the end of the race is a really good sign he's a proper horse IMO. Breeding, owner, trainer all look on point. Was impressed enough to take 4/1 as a cover to JDR and Ballyburn.

I'm probably on my own here, but I think the performance, whilst good on the day, has been overplayed a huge amount. Twitter was unbearable!

The race before hand looked awful, and I had no reason to change my mind after it.

For me, there are holes everywhere in the form of the horses he beat, for starters, Jigoro lost to a sorry handicapper on hurdles debut before beating a horse, in Butcher Hollow, who got absolutely hammered by Jade De Grugy next time out, on form alone that puts Jade De Grugy right in the mix for the Supreme (which isn't going to be the case), bearing in mind that was also her seasonal debut. Jigoro is a handicapper, and beating him 7 lengths if nothing to get giddy about, IMO. I can't even begin to talk about the other two Mullins horses in the race, one of which needs 3m!

If there was a favourite to lay competition, Mystical Power for the Supreme, goes right to the top of the list for me.

Maybe, just maybe, he would be a better Ballymore contender, but even then, I'm still not wholly convinced.

Impaire Et Passe beat a fair crock of s**t in the same race last season, but he was never looking like a 2m hurdler to my untrained eye, anyway, so it may just be the case that, like Impaire Et Passe, Mystical Power just needs to go out in trip to be seen to best effect. Having never gone further, I'd be surprised if Willie suddenly chucked him in the Ballymore though.

[Quevega]

I'm probably on my own here, but I think the performance, whilst good on the day, has been overplayed a huge amount. Twitter was unbearable!

The race before hand looked awful, and I had no reason to change my mind after it.

For me, there are holes everywhere in the form of the horses he beat, for starters, Jigoro lost to a sorry handicapper on hurdles debut before beating a horse, in Butcher Hollow, who got absolutely hammered by Jade De Grugy next time out, on form alone that puts Jade De Grugy right in the mix for the Supreme (which isn't going to be the case), bearing in mind that was also her seasonal debut. Jigoro is a handicapper, and beating him 7 lengths if nothing to get giddy about, IMO. I can't even begin to talk about the other two Mullins horses in the race, one of which needs 3m!

If there was a favourite to lay competition, Mystical Power for the Supreme, goes right to the top of the list for me.

Maybe, just maybe, he would be a better Ballymore contender, but even then, I'm still not wholly convinced.

Impaire Et Passe beat a fair crock of s**t in the same race last season, but he was never looking like a 2m hurdler to my untrained eye, anyway, so it may just be the case that, like Impaire Et Passe, Mystical Power just needs to go out in trip to be seen to best effect. Having never gone further, I'd be surprised if Willie suddenly chucked him in the Ballymore though.

I think as is the case with most extreme opposites, somewhere nearer the middle is most likely correct.
His prices are a little off IMO, but that's normal at this stage as the bookies know people are searching and grasping in some of these markets.
There are events and circumstances that would mean he goes off shorter (running again impressively, nothing emerging for his race in Dublin, other injuries etc) - But given average events in the run up I'd expect him to be available at bigger at some point between now and the off.

I think the IEP example is important when dismissing the form, and you have to go off your instinct. I'd be more on charlie's side in judging the performance though.

[Rooster Booster]

I'm probably on my own here, but I think the performance, whilst good on the day, has been overplayed a huge amount. Twitter was unbearable!

The race before hand looked awful, and I had no reason to change my mind after it.

For me, there are holes everywhere in the form of the horses he beat, for starters, Jigoro lost to a sorry handicapper on hurdles debut before beating a horse, in Butcher Hollow, who got absolutely hammered by Jade De Grugy next time out, on form alone that puts Jade De Grugy right in the mix for the Supreme (which isn't going to be the case), bearing in mind that was also her seasonal debut. Jigoro is a handicapper, and beating him 7 lengths if nothing to get giddy about, IMO. I can't even begin to talk about the other two Mullins horses in the race, one of which needs 3m!

If there was a favourite to lay competition, Mystical Power for the Supreme, goes right to the top of the list for me.

Maybe, just maybe, he would be a better Ballymore contender, but even then, I'm still not wholly convinced.

Impaire Et Passe beat a fair crock of s**t in the same race last season, but he was never looking like a 2m hurdler to my untrained eye, anyway, so it may just be the case that, like Impaire Et Passe, Mystical Power just needs to go out in trip to be seen to best effect. Having never gone further, I'd be surprised if Willie suddenly chucked him in the Ballymore though.

Also I’d like to know what Gordon’s rtf percentage is right now. Using any of his horses as a barometer right now should come with a health warning. Don’t know what his jab strategy is but they are running like they’ve all had a dose.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I'm probably on my own here, but I think the performance, whilst good on the day, has been overplayed a huge amount. Twitter was unbearable!

The race before hand looked awful, and I had no reason to change my mind after it.

For me, there are holes everywhere in the form of the horses he beat, for starters, Jigoro lost to a sorry handicapper on hurdles debut before beating a horse, in Butcher Hollow, who got absolutely hammered by Jade De Grugy next time out, on form alone that puts Jade De Grugy right in the mix for the Supreme (which isn't going to be the case), bearing in mind that was also her seasonal debut. Jigoro is a handicapper, and beating him 7 lengths if nothing to get giddy about, IMO. I can't even begin to talk about the other two Mullins horses in the race, one of which needs 3m!

If there was a favourite to lay competition, Mystical Power for the Supreme, goes right to the top of the list for me.

Maybe, just maybe, he would be a better Ballymore contender, but even then, I'm still not wholly convinced.

Impaire Et Passe beat a fair crock of s**t in the same race last season, but he was never looking like a 2m hurdler to my untrained eye, anyway, so it may just be the case that, like Impaire Et Passe, Mystical Power just needs to go out in trip to be seen to best effect. Having never gone further, I'd be surprised if Willie suddenly chucked him in the Ballymore though.

The race might have looked awful but the winner didn’t.
That was an impressive turn of foot and I imagine plenty more to come.
I did the today/Bally double after reading trainer quotes,so hoping he steps up,but if he turns up in the Supreme I will have him on side.

[ComplyOrDie]

I think as is the case with most extreme opposites, somewhere nearer the middle is most likely correct.
His prices are a little off IMO, but that's normal at this stage as the bookies know people are searching and grasping in some of these markets.
There are events and circumstances that would mean he goes off shorter (running again impressively, nothing emerging for his race in Dublin, other injuries etc) - But given average events in the run up I'd expect him to be available at bigger at some point between now and the off.

I think the IEP example is important when dismissing the form, and you have to go off your instinct. I'd be more on charlie's side in judging the performance though.

If he were to end up in a Ballymore, I probably wouldn't be so dismissive of his chances, but I couldn't touch him for the Supreme.

[ComplyOrDie]

The race might have looked awful but the winner didn’t.

It's easier for a horse to look impressive when the opposition is dross though, surely?

I did the today/Bally double after reading trainer quotes,so hoping he steps up,but if he turns up in the Supreme I will have him on side.

I think you've gone down the right route of the Ballymore. This is the way I'd be going with him, if at all.

[Carnage at Taunton]

It's easier for a horse to look impressive when the opposition is dross though, surely?



I think you've gone down the right route of the Ballymore. This is the way I'd be going with him, if at all.

Yeah it is easier of course, but the horse still has to show it, and visually it looked very impressive.
I actually thought that performance was more akin to a Ballymore than Supreme, so am hoping those that matter agree.
If they decide Supreme then I will look at prices on or very near the day.
Don’t like current price .

[Exar Essay]

It was a real Ballymore trial to my eye. They went no speed at all until 3f out and then as they quickened turning for home, he just exploded. I was very impressed. What I do not understand is the shouts (mainly on Twitter) of "he'll be suited by a strong 2m". That's the doubt I have about him; whether he can travel at speed. He didn't travel brilliantly even at the crawl they went, but he looks to have stamina and a wicked turn of foot.

The problem is, Casey says 2 miles and so does Walsh. Casey rarely offers an opinion so they must've spoken about it beforehand. And for Walsh to offer an opinion on future destinations ... I'm almost convinced that he's headed over 2 miles.

You can crab his suitability for 2 miles (which I have), but he has put in the best novice hurdle performance of the season for me and deserves to be fav for this race given the post race comments. I'd say 4/1 is reasonable. Put it this way, from what he's done on the track, he's a much fairer price than Jeriko.

[FinalFurlong91]

If I owned Brighterdaysahead, dysart enos or jade du grugy I'd be very much considering the Supreme

The geldings don't look anything special at all

[darlojim]

ADTS won't be at the fez this year..

[TigerRolllllll]

ADTS won't be at the fez this year..

Is that your view or news?

[BookieBasher]

Ruby confirmed It’s For Me picked up an injury over Xmas and will need a bit of luck to make the Spring Festivals

[Lobos]

ADTS won't be at the fez this year..

Thanks for confirming. Betting gave it away yesterday. JP now has 2 live ones for the Supreme without him so makes sense to save him for next year potentially.

[SeanRock]

Thanks for confirming. Betting gave it away yesterday. JP now has 2 live ones for the Supreme without him so makes sense to save him for next year potentially.

I’d imagine that’ll be 3 live ones on Thursday afternoon. Mirazur West being the least likely of the 3 to step up imo.