2024 Novice Hurdlers

[Lobos]

He's the best bumper horse going hurdling but he's not the one to beat until we've seen him and the other main protagonists take to the discipline.

He is though based solely on his Bumper form. He's top dog and hoping to stay there . If he jumps hurdles quick and efficiently then the rest are playing catch up whoever they may be. Vega was in the same position last season and he started favourite in the Supreme . He has to prove himself over the obstacles as you say and there obviously could be a Marine Nationale lurking.

[Kautostar]

He was readily available at 10's then 8's for some time. I thought that was very generous based on his exemplary Bumper season.

I don’t ever remember him being that big unless it was straight after his bumper win for a day or so? 7’s was the biggest I remember seeing then a general 5’s and 9/2 shot for most of the summer. Wasn’t he the 1 that you got some special ladbrokes prices on?

[JackieMoon33]

He is though based solely on his Bumper form. He's top dog and hoping to stay there . If he jumps hurdles quick and efficiently then the rest are playing catch up whoever they may be. Vega was in the same position last season and he started favourite in the Supreme . He has to prove himself over the obstacles as you say and there obviously could be a Marine Nationale lurking.

I would not personally start referring to horses as 'the one to beat' until just before the festival when everything is known. Right now, he's just the best bumper horse going hurdling. I've posted this a few times before, but he's only raced against a small number of horses that will likely turn up at the festival - too many unknowns and variables to state he's the 'one to beat' in October.

[Lobos]

I don’t ever remember him being that big unless it was straight after his bumper win for a day or so? 7’s was the biggest I remember seeing then a general 5’s and 9/2 shot for most of the summer. Wasn’t he the 1 that you got some special ladbrokes prices on?

The Ladbrokes price was 7's. He was 10's straight after and freely available at 8's for a while. He's been pushed out to 5's by Unibet if you like that. Punters, including myself, are happy to take low prices about Marine Nationale taking to fences and lower still about El Fabiolo proving himself in Open company. Why the stigma about taking 5/1 or 9/2 on ADTS ?

If I fancy a horse to win when he's 10/1 I still fancy him just the same at 9/2.

[Kautostar]

The Ladbrokes price was 7's. He was 10's straight after and freely available at 8's for a while. He's been pushed out to 5's by Unibet if you like that. Punters, including myself, are happy to take low prices about Marine Nationale taking to fences and lower still about El Fabiolo proving himself in Open company. Why the stigma about taking 5/1 or 9/2 on ADTS ?

If I fancy a horse to win when he's 10/1 I still fancy him just the same at 9/2.

Comparing ADTS with marine nationale/el fab is a poor comparison Lobos.
We have a read into a horses ability by the time they go over fences like with marine nationale. Fine we don’t know if he’ll definitely take to fences but we do know if he does he has the ability to go close to winning an Arkle and what level his likely opposition will be. Even more so with el Fabiolo as he’s already jumped fences winning an Arkle.
ADTS hasn’t jumped a hurdle yet, we’ve literally no idea what level of form those bumpers are worth and we’ve no idea what the opposition is likely to be in the supreme. He might win the supreme but he can do without my money being on at 4/1 as we’ve seen over and over again bumper winners getting turned over. Add to the fact that his breeding doesn’t inspire confidence that he’ll take to hurdles he’s a firm no for me.

[Fouroverthrutwo]

When has a trainer ever said their horse jumps like a snooker table?

Olly Murphy on Sunday when describing Strong Leader's hurdling technique!

https://www.racingtv.com/news/olly-murphy-stable-stars-update-plus-horses-to-follow

[Lobos]

Comparing ADTS with marine nationale/el fab is a poor comparison Lobos.
We have a read into a horses ability by the time they go over fences like with marine nationale. Fine we don’t know if he’ll definitely take to fences but we do know if he does he has the ability to go close to winning an Arkle and what level his likely opposition will be. Even more so with el Fabiolo as he’s already jumped fences winning an Arkle.
ADTS hasn’t jumped a hurdle yet, we’ve literally no idea what level of form those bumpers are worth and we’ve no idea what the opposition is likely to be in the supreme. He might win the supreme but he can do without my money being on at 4/1 as we’ve seen over and over again bumper winners getting turned over. Add to the fact that his breeding doesn’t inspire confidence that he’ll take to hurdles he’s a firm no for me.

So if he were 10/1 now would you back him ?

It sounds more like a 'I've missed the price thing ' as opposed to his potential ability to win which imo is the wrong way to go about it.

[Kautostar]

So if he were 10/1 now would you back him ?

It sounds more like a 'I've missed the price thing ' as opposed to his potential ability to win which imo is the wrong way to go about it.

But we don’t know his ability yet apart from he’s a good bumper horse. We don’t know if that form holds up or what level of horses he’ll have to face this season. Just far too many question marks to make a case for backing him at 4/1.

He was available to me at 7s and I didn’t take that so I guess the answer would be no as I don’t like his breeding. Every horse has its price and 10s is getting closer to where I think he should be. We all perceive value in different ways and for me he’s not a bet at his current price. I’ve made my bed and will take the loss if I’m wrong.

[ComplyOrDie]

So if he were 10/1 now would you back him ?

It sounds more like a 'I've missed the price thing ' as opposed to his potential ability to win which imo is the wrong way to go about it.

I'm going to weigh in here, as I do have 8's and 10's, mostly using William Hills double odds boost on multiple accounts, but even so, the reason I used the double odds boost was because I think he is too short currently.

I don't think he's a superstar yet, and I'm yet to be sold on the bumper form in general from last season until we start seeing a few out, which is why the statement of 'one to beat' doesn't ring true for me over hurdles because none of them have jumped a hurdle yet. I suspect, IF he can jump, he'll certainly be there or thereabouts but we've not seen him yet so until proven, he isn't the one to beat. In fact, at this stage, there is no one single horse to beat, in my opinion.

[Lobos]

But we don’t know his ability yet apart from he’s a good bumper horse. We don’t know if that form holds up or what level of horses he’ll have to face this season. Just far too many question marks to make a case for backing him at 4/1.

He was available to me at 7s and I didn’t take that so I guess the answer would be no as I don’t like his breeding. Every horse has its price and 10s is getting closer to where I think he should be. We all perceive value in different ways and for me he’s not a bet at his current price. I’ve made my bed and will take the loss if I’m wrong.

He finished a higher rated Bumper winner than Envoi Allen who coasted to a Ballymore win the following season, higher rated than Sir Gerhard who easily won the following years Ballymore and just 1 point below Facile Vega who finished second in this year's Supreme. He is a seriously good horse and clearly massively underated by many. He can't possibly be ignored imo.

[SeanRock]

My thoughts are despite ADTS dominating his division last year I don’t think it was a particularly strong group. I wouldn’t be too bullish about anything from the Champion Bumper going forward bar Nicholls’ runner but if he goes the predictable route Hermes Allen did I wouldn’t be rushing to back him for a Ballymore.

& that’s in spite of being in no doubt of what a genius John Kiely is…

I’d give Chosen Witness a good shout as one that could make up into a good stayer with plenty of cut over the winter. Something like the Christmas Limerick 3m race would be right up his street I’d have thought.

Edit: Mixed up WD & CW

[Kautostar]

He finished a higher rated Bumper winner than Envoi Allen who coasted to a Ballymore win the following season, higher rated than Sir Gerhard who easily won the following years Ballymore and just 1 point below Facile Vega who finished second in this year's Supreme. He is a seriously good horse and clearly massively underated by many. He can't possibly be ignored imo.

He’s clearly not being ignored he’s the 4/1 fav.

[FinalFurlong91]

Applies to everyone though not just short priced favourites

applies more so to him because of his flat breeding

And because he's a short priced fav I'd be less inclined to take the risk

[Lobos]

He’s clearly not being ignored he’s the 4/1 fav.

Ignored/underated by many FJ punters who are happy to risk Supreme prices about horses that may not even run this coming season or that have not had a single run in this country. At least we have something to go on with ADTS

[Lobos]

I also don't get this dislike/non trust every year of the Cheltenham Festival Bumper form. If you look at the winners going back over the years they have consistently proved top class the following season and some beyond.