2024 Novice Hurdlers

[AaronLad]

Banntown Girl can often look the winner in her races before faultering when it gets tough. plenty of horses have beaten BG just as well.

Nothing particularly wrong with BDA, she's a 4-1 shot in a race with so many unknowns. I wouldn't agree on what i've seen so far that it'll take a superstar the form doesn't make me think unbeatable.

Jetara was good at times last year yes, i wouldn't say BDA is miles ahead of her either tbh. BDA has more potential with her profile of course though. Just my view, i've read your diary, you're very keen on her i know that but i don't subscribe to the same view.

Couldn't disagree with much you say there jack.
Although a bit harsh on banntown girl who has probably had the valuable mares handicap at the drf as a target in recent seasons.
I wouldn't try and convince anyone who doesn't believe in this mare at 4/1 (i'm only on 5's as a single myself),
if you haven't seen it yet, it'll be too late by the time you do. (when she wins the MNH at evs)

[CJW]

Who wins the Lawlor's!?

Entries are out

[Exar Essay]

Who wins the Lawlor's!?

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Ile Atlantique.

[Quevega]

Who wins the Lawlor's!?

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Surprised no entry for Slade Steel.
Ballyburn more understandable as likely to take in a maiden/lower grade race instead.

[AaronLad]

Who wins the Lawlor's!?

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I'd say ballyburn and mirazur west are 2 horses that haven't got entries that might have had considering all the other horses to receive entries ,although they would probably like to win maidens first

[CJW]

Surprised no entry for Slade Steel.
Ballyburn more understandable as likely to take in a maiden/lower grade race instead.

Ground and henry mentioned it could come to soon for him.
yeah I see that with Ballyburn.

Ile Atlantique the one for me. Will Firefox go aswell?

[CJW]

Croke Park given a good mention by Elliott today for the lawlors, thought he'd be more bartlett type.

[ComplyOrDie]

Who wins the Lawlor's!?

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Down Memory Lane

[FinalFurlong91]

Who wins the Lawlor's!?

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Couldn't even tell you what's going to run at this stage let alone the winner

Be interesting to see what doesnt run over xmas

[Exar Essay]

Surprised no entry for Slade Steel.
Ballyburn more understandable as likely to take in a maiden/lower grade race instead.

I'd say Ballyburn will go in the 2m4 maiden on 29th. Doubt they'd want anyone but Paul on board and with Mirazur pencilled in for the 2m on 26th, I think that's his only real option.

[CJW]

“Croke Park is a horse we really like. He won well at Clonmel and then went to Navan for a Grade 3 over two and a half mile and we couldn’t have asked for anymore. The Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle looks the next move for him but I think we’ll have a few runners in the race. “Firefox is in there after his win at Fairyhouse and is in good form, Search For Glory and Down Memory Lane also have Naas as an option so we’ll see what the next week or so brings.”

Sounds like Croke park is a definite runner, next I'm reading a likely addition will be firefox. Possibles, Search for glory & Down memory lane. For gordon.

[Kevloaf]

I'd say Brighterdaysahead might have found a mare capable of challenging her there in Cromwell's Only By Night.

Impressive.

Night clear as day for Cromwell

Gavin Cromwell enjoyed a good day at the final meeting of the year at Naas as he carded a double and saw his progressive mare Only By Night

make a winning start to her hurdles career in the 2m mares' maiden.

The daughter of Affinisea was hardened to 14-1 from 20-1 by Paddy Power for the Mares' Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham in March after this success, which followed on from her victory in a Listed mares' bumper at Navan the previous month.

Travelling strongly and jumping slickly throughout for Keith Donoghue, her task was made easier by the final flight exit of her nearest pursuer Magic Dawn, but Donoghue had not asked his mount for anything like maximum effort at the time.

Cromwell said: "She's a nice mare. She had won a Listed bumper and we would have hoped she could come here and do that. She jumped well and it was very straightforward.

"She has a lovely way of going. She was a bit keen first time for Derek O'Connor, but she improved on that at Navan and today she was very straightforward. She has become so in her work at home too. She has grown up.

"We would hope that she could end up in the mares' novice at Cheltenham – we might as well dream here as in bed!"

[jack1092]

Couldn't disagree with much you say there jack.
Although a bit harsh on banntown girl who has probably had the valuable mares handicap at the drf as a target in recent seasons.
I wouldn't try and convince anyone who doesn't believe in this mare at 4/1 (i'm only on 5's as a single myself),
if you haven't seen it yet, it'll be too late by the time you do. (when she wins the MNH at evs)

Love the confidence at the end! How is she already ahead of last year's novices? (Having a reread of some of your diary on her) Certainly 138 after 2 hurdle runs makes it likely she will be.....butttttt....the last mare in that DR race to run again without a massive setback- Listen Dear- a mare i was involved in, was never considered good enough for the festival. Now i understand totally different situation, Mullin's had an army of mares + Elliot's is more of a raw type with scope still to improve a lot but the point i'm getting at is, the DR race has a habit of throwing decent mares that get overtaken later in the season. Now she looks a potentially different type here i won't lie but the form is what makes me tentative. Last 3 have been 246 in come March- not bad.

On Cromwell's i've taken the MGM 14-1 boosted to 28s. A very decent price for me + as Kev's post indicates they've aborted the bumper season plans to give this a shot. Hopefully a bit of an indicator of what they think of her. This race has thrown good'ns, Halka, porn star amongst others....The good ones tend to have got an rpr of just over 130 for their runs here. Suspect Only By Night will be bit below that. Maybe 125 or so. She's won it with ease but would've been nice to see the faller finish to help the rating (previous form)...even still i doubt 130 would've been achieved.

[DenmanSacre]

Who is likely to turn up in the Lawlors:

Elliott I'd imagine will send one of Down Memory Lane and Firefox (whichever doesn't turn up for the Xmas grade 1).
Croke Park may go - I don't think he'd be disgraced in this. Wants further but he isn't Slow.
Farren Glory (if he doesn't go to the grade 1 at Xmas but I'd imagine he will go there).
Jigoro will be a handicap plot so they could hide his ability in this and then at the DRF.
No Time to Wait was ok a few days ago. Obviously didn't run his race first time up against Ile Atlantique.
Search for Glory and Stellar Story will go up in trip.

An Tobar will go for Henry. Maybe they'll ride him with more restraint? Can't particularly see him winning this and he should go further up in trip.

Willie will send a few.

Blizzard of Oz - doubt he's good enough.
Chapeau de Slow - too much was made of his win last time. Awful maiden in awful ground. He won a schooling bumper and Patrick has loved him since. His racecourse appearances have been shite.
Daddy Long Legs - will stick to 2 miles
High Class Hero - I can see them putting him in here. Probably on the short side
Ile Atlantique - won his maiden well over 2m. I was more impressed with Henry's horse on the day who won the other 2m maiden though.
Lecky Watson - boat
Lombron - Will be a handicap horse.
Mystical Power - likely not good enough.
Predators Gold - I really like him. Think this race will really suit him.
Readin Tommy Wrong - doubt he's good enough
Westport Cove - doubt he's good enough

Elliott will run 3, Mullins could easily have 3 in it, An Tobar will run and you might have 2 of the others.

Firefox would be tough to beat if he turned up. I'm not too keen on Down Memory Lane.

I'd be on Predators Gold if he turned up, although I think Townsend will have the ride on Ile Atlantique. I wasn't as wowed by Ile Atlantiques performance as I was by Predators Gold and I think he might be a bit ungenuine based on his 2 bumper wins but probably quite harsh. Predators Gold hit a good standard on only his 2nd racecourse appearance when winning what was IMO a good maiden and I think hes got a lot more to offer.

[AaronLad]

Love the confidence at the end! How is she already ahead of last year's novices? (Having a reread of some of your diary on her) Certainly 138 after 2 hurdle runs makes it likely she will be.....butttttt....the last mare in that DR race to run again without a massive setback- Listen Dear- a mare i was involved in, was never considered good enough for the festival. Now i understand totally different situation, Mullin's had an army of mares + Elliot's is more of a raw type with scope still to improve a lot but the point i'm getting at is, the DR race has a habit of throwing decent mares that get overtaken later in the season. Now she looks a potentially different type here i won't lie but the form is what makes me tentative. Last 3 have been 246 in come March- not bad.

Just on the loose comparison with listen dear, she beat 111,106 and 118 rated mares Brighterdaysahead has beaten mares rated 127,136 and 123, Listen dear was having her 7th track appearance BDA only her 4th. But I know you know she's in a different league you're just playing devils advocate.
I think as you were typing you realised the DR race has become increasingly stronger in the past couple of seasons, with magical zoe and impervious winning the last 2 renewals.
On me suggesting she was ahead of last year's novices in my diary, i should have made it clear this was only my opinion and have done so now (by adding imo)
she is in fact 1lb behind ashroe diamond on her best rpr from last season, which she achieved on her 5th hurdle run in a grade 1.
And she's 2lb behind you wear it well's best rpr of 140 which she got in the MNH on her 5th hurdle run.
So although factually incorrect, it is highly likely to be proven right by her 5th hurdle run.

I was impressed with the cromwell mare yesterday, but she's beaten very ittle imo, she's a bit like my 40's poke casa no mento in the mnh, could become a contender but to surpass BDA would need to be special imo.