August ‘23 Yankee

[Eggs]

Thankfully, Middle_Of_March says he’ll be back for this so no need for callhimgamblor or i to facilitate. All we need to decide is whether we have a theme or not.

I think it was Istabraq who suggested a ‘Novice Yankee’. Mirazur West (Supreme), Mister Policeman (Arkle), Champ Kiely/Letsbeclearaboutit (NHC), Inthepocket/Good Land (Turners) all nominated last month so perhaps we could go in that direction.

Alternatively, we could just try and tease out 4 winners. The GC debate needs resolving; GDC v Gerri v Fastorslow etc.

Lets have your thoughts & we’ll see if MoM pops in to give us his steer.

[Atlantic Viking]

Should we save a novice/triumph Yankee for when the books come out? Usually end of Sep/October-ish if I remember rightly? You'd have done extremely well not to have backed the last 2 Triumph winners from OJA in particular.

[Eggs]

Should we save a novice/triumph Yankee for when the books come out? Usually end of Sep/October-ish if I remember rightly? You'd have done extremely well not to have backed the last 2 Triumph winners from OJA in particular.

….I’d think most of the firms have markets already formed for the Novice races. Saying that, the Stable Tours started to emerge in October so that would support your suggestion as targets become a little more certain.

Let’s see what others say. I suppose if we delay an ‘all novice’ Yankee it doesn’t mean we can’t still include one or two this month.

[Morley Street]

Loving the chat in these threads and apologies if this has already been discussed but wanted to put Facile Vega forward for the Turners.
The Turners market looks distinctly short of credible candidates at this stage and Good Land was a solid selection last month but there has to be some upside in trying to find Willie’s main dart. If like me you believe IEP will stay over hurdles then then FV looks the obvious candidate.
Two scenarios for the Arkle… CH goes chasing and scares off the opposition or stays hurdling opening up the race for Marine Nationale… Is Willie really going to want to take him on again over a speed trip?
We know from comments made after Punchestown that FV definitely goes chasing and this comment in particular made me think that he’d step out in trip… which for me looked like he wanted throughout his hurdling season:
“His pedigree would suggest he can go out to three miles any day of the week and I know he has enough pace to go two miles so we will let the horse tell us as he learns the game in the autumn.”
Widely available at 6/1 looks value to me as if he did line up in the race next March I could see him being very short. Thoughts?

[somer1]

I like the Novice Yankee for this month. Im gunna chuck Jigme for the Triumph in. But dont know if this race is in the trainers thoughts.

[Benjy23]

Loving the chat in these threads and apologies if this has already been discussed but wanted to put Facile Vega forward for the Turners.
The Turners market looks distinctly short of credible candidates at this stage and Good Land was a solid selection last month but there has to be some upside in trying to find Willie’s main dart. If like me you believe IEP will stay over hurdles then then FV looks the obvious candidate.
Two scenarios for the Arkle… CH goes chasing and scares off the opposition or stays hurdling opening up the race for Marine Nationale… Is Willie really going to want to take him on again over a speed trip?
We know from comments made after Punchestown that FV definitely goes chasing and this comment in particular made me think that he’d step out in trip… which for me looked like he wanted throughout his hurdling season:
“His pedigree would suggest he can go out to three miles any day of the week and I know he has enough pace to go two miles so we will let the horse tell us as he learns the game in the autumn.”
Widely available at 6/1 looks value to me as if he did line up in the race next March I could see him being very short. Thoughts?

I get the angle but... The only scenario he goes Turners is if he's beaten over 2 mile beforehand. I guess winning a couple of novice chases easily and then a staying on 2nd at the DRF wouldn't look too bad for heading to the Turners. But wanting a horse I've backed at 6/1 to be beaten beforehand doesn't get me too excited to be honest.

A double with Marine National Arkle could be an ambitious way to cover the angle. Which I'm now thinking about

[Benjy23]

….I’d think most of the firms have markets already formed for the Novice races. Saying that, the Stable Tours started to emerge in October so that would support your suggestion as targets become a little more certain.

Let’s see what others say. I suppose if we delay an ‘all novice’ Yankee it doesn’t mean we can’t still include one or two this month.

Think he means reading books rather than betting books.

Quite like the idea of themes, just to try to focus discussion a bit. Although last month was probably the best discussion I've seen in one of these, so I could be talking shit there.

[JackieMoon33]

I like the Novice Yankee for this month. Im gunna chuck Jigme for the Triumph in. But dont know if this race is in the trainers thoughts.

Although I back exclusively novice hurdlers and chasers, Jigme would be one to pass on unless he's purchased by a UK or Irish trainer, which is very unlikely by all accounts. If he stays in France then I doubt he'd come over given the programme and prize money.

[HesTheOne]

Although I back exclusively novice hurdlers and chasers, Jigme would be one to pass on unless he's purchased by a UK or Irish trainer, which is very unlikely by all accounts. If he stays in France then I doubt he'd come over given the programme and prize money.

Yea if a sale hasn’t happened this stage it surely won’t, they would have likely refused big money already. As you said the FR programme doesn’t really align with having a tilt at Cheltenham. Jigmes future lies in FR it seams.

Good to have a false fav at the top of the market although prices inbehind aren’t too exciting… Believe Lossiemouth and Blood Destiny were available at 33s and 40s before their hype started.

[HesTheOne]

All for the novice theme this month

[darlojim]

Loving the chat in these threads and apologies if this has already been discussed but wanted to put Facile Vega forward for the Turners.
The Turners market looks distinctly short of credible candidates at this stage and Good Land was a solid selection last month but there has to be some upside in trying to find Willie’s main dart. If like me you believe IEP will stay over hurdles then then FV looks the obvious candidate.
Two scenarios for the Arkle… CH goes chasing and scares off the opposition or stays hurdling opening up the race for Marine Nationale… Is Willie really going to want to take him on again over a speed trip?
We know from comments made after Punchestown that FV definitely goes chasing and this comment in particular made me think that he’d step out in trip… which for me looked like he wanted throughout his hurdling season:
“His pedigree would suggest he can go out to three miles any day of the week and I know he has enough pace to go two miles so we will let the horse tell us as he learns the game in the autumn.”
Widely available at 6/1 looks value to me as if he did line up in the race next March I could see him being very short. Thoughts?

Vega will only be going turners if he is beaten prior, and then if that is the case, he will likely be at least the price he is now. Plan is definitely 2m atm, they want redemption.

Jigme very unlikely to come across, they've already rejected several good offers.

[Istabraq]

I'm a sucker for a Supreme bet in July and in A Dream to Share I think there could a real talented recruit should he head there, but his price offers pretty much zero value so I'm happy to swerve especially as he could also be a Ballymore horse.

Instead I'll make a bit of a curve ball suggestion, Chapeau de Soleil, currently 40/1.

Wasn't disgraced in the champion bumper after a nightmare prep but was highly thought of prior to that, I get the impression they gave up on 22/23 quite early and were just minding him, I think there's a belief the horse has some speed and if that's the case the Supreme could easily be the target.
I accept this one comes with a red flag but Ricci/Mullins know what a Supreme horse looks like and assuming this one has Summered well and comes back in full health that 40/1 look a very silly price quite quickly...

[Odin]

Vega will only be going turners if he is beaten prior, and then if that is the case, he will likely be at least the price he is now. Plan is definitely 2m atm, they want redemption.

I believe this, but with Mister Policeman also seemingly going that way, IEP going CHurdle, Gaelic Warrior Stayers and Champ Kiely being a stayer. Who the flying floof is the Turners horse?!

[Exar Essay]

The three I am very keen on are in the novice chases: Marine Nationale, Inthepocket, and Giovinco. I also like Indeevar Bleu and You Oughta Know for the Supreme.

Barry has all but confirmed that the Arkle is the target for MN and he looks a real weapon. He'll have a likely rival in Facile Vega, and there is a risk that FV takes to fences better, but MN looks a real specimen. I think CH being in the market is propping up MN's price a touch (as well as FV's actually). Realistically, they look to be ahead of the rest of those likely targeted here. Arkle 7/2

Inthepocket was a strange one last year. Looked perfectly suited for the midtrip but Henry persevered with him over 2m and ended up a very creditable 4th in a hot Supreme and winning at Aintree. I am still convinced he'd want to step up in trip and he jumped his hurdles like he wouldn't mind a fence. I am not sure he's going to be a superstar, but the mid-division does look like it might cut up a bit. Of the top 10 in the betting, I'd suggest at least 8 if not 9 are more likely might be headed elsewhere. Only ITP, and maybe Corbett's Cross would seem likely to be aimed here. That being said, this is a division which tends to fall into place as the season progresses rather than having obvious candidates from the outset. Of the others, Irish Point and Strong Leader would look to be credible challengers. Turners 14/1

Giovinco looks an excellent prospect with a trainer who knows how to get them right for the staying chases. He might be one who trots around UK courses without much competition - albeit his stable mate in Apples Away looks a prospect too - .and gets cut to single figures following an uncompetitive win on debut over fences. The Brits have tender to prosper in the RSA recently too. RSA 25/1

Over hurdles, I do really like the obvious ones this year so am not hugely keen to take them on yet; A Dream to Share, Fact To File, Tullyhill, Ballyburn and to a lesser extent, Mirazur West. There are two that are flying under the radar a little bit (despite one being second fav) that I was impressed with in bumpers at the end of last year; Indeevar Bleu and You Oughta Know.

Visually the former looked superb in a bumper that Olly Murphy likes to fire his best at. Chasing Fire won the race year before. Hillcrest won the race the year before that as well, so it does tend to throw up a good one. Notably, IB's RPR was 125, some 10 points greater than Chasing Fire's. We know Olly Murphy likes to keep his novice hurdlers to the shorter trip so can be fairly certain that, if he makes the grade, IB will be aimed at the Supreme. Supreme 50/1

You Oughta Know was immediately found in the market following an impressive bumper win over the much touted Croke Park amongst others. The right horse finished a comfortable second that day with the experienced Joshua Des Flos in third too. It's hard to know where Willie will aim him, but given his plethora of staying talent (three listed above) and the high cruising speed on show in his bumper, I think he might be aimed towards the Supreme. That being said, we know Willie has numerous French 4/5 year olds either in the stables or on a boat so it's hardly a strong line of thought. I really like Ballyburn, Tullyhill looks to be a good one too, whilst Fact To File seems battle hardened and ready to slog, but this chap was probably my favourite of Willie's bumper horses last year. Supreme 12/1

[darlojim]

I believe this, but with Mister Policeman also seemingly going that way, IEP going CHurdle, Gaelic Warrior Stayers and Champ Kiely being a stayer. Who the flying floof is the Turners horse?!

Could be any number of horses at this early stage..

Champ Kiely
Nick Rockett
Grangeclare west
Hunters Yarn

Willie didn't necessarily have a standout Turners horse last season, it just so happened Appreciate It weren't good enough at 2m as originally planned and JDB was more a back number with questions to answer after Leopardstown.

It's not impossible either vega or Mr policeman won't step up in trip to the Turners, will all depend on their performances.