August ‘23 Yankee

[Eggs]

….a novice I think worth mentioning is Captain Teague.

I think Nicholls said the last horse he had placed in a CB was Al Ferof, 2nd to Cue Card before winning the following years Supreme. Nicholls has said “he’ll be one of my better horses next season. Captain Teague won his only PTP by 8L, the 2nd is now with W Mullins whilst the 3rd has already won over hurdles for Joe Tizzard. He won his only other bumper over 2m 1f.

I remember posting on here how surprised I was at 33-1 being available for Ballymore for a while after the CB performance, he’s a general 16-1 now. From the Diaries it seems quite a few have him their books for the Ballymore (33-1 available for Supreme). One to consider.

[archie]

The discussion so far underlines how difficult it will be to pick the correct races for novices this far out. I wouldn't go near this type of yankee until at least the early stable tours in October.

Still time to do the 8/1 GDC/El Fabiolo double as the basis for one of these!

[ComplyOrDie]

….a novice I think worth mentioning is Captain Teague.

I think Nicholls said the last horse he had placed in a CB was Al Ferof, 2nd to Cue Card before winning the following years Supreme. Nicholls has said “he’ll be one of my better horses next season. Captain Teague won his only PTP by 8L, the 2nd is now with W Mullins whilst the 3rd has already won over hurdles for Joe Tizzard. He won his only other bumper over 2m 1f.

I remember posting on here how surprised I was at 33-1 being available for Ballymore for a while after the CB performance, he’s a general 16-1 now. From the Diaries it seems quite a few have him their books for the Ballymore (33-1 available for Supreme). One to consider.

I've added him for both the Supreme and Ballymore.

He's by Doyen and out of a dam that produced Sky Pirate, who turned out to be a very good 2m chaser. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Captain Teague ended up in the Supreme over the Ballymore, but I wouldn't like to call it right now.

I think he's certainly one to keep onside though

[Istabraq]

The discussion so far underlines how difficult it will be to pick the correct races for novices this far out. I wouldn't go near this type of yankee until at least the early stable tours in October.

Still time to do the 8/1 GDC/El Fabiolo double as the basis for one of these!

I think this is quite right archie, but it was July/August discussion that threw up the likes of Bob Ollinger at 33s for the Ballymore, Quilixious at 33s and Vauban at 25s for the Triumph and plenty of others, people just hunting bigger value/returns.
It's the hope that kills you....

[nortonscoin200]

The discussion so far underlines how difficult it will be to pick the correct races for novices this far out. I wouldn't go near this type of yankee until at least the early stable tours in October.

Still time to do the 8/1 GDC/El Fabiolo double as the basis for one of these!

If we were to go down the shorties route.......

What do you reckon to these archie (or anyone else for that matter)?

Best odds applied when comparing 365, PP/BF and Sky


EL FABIOLO (CC) 7-4
CONSTITUTION HILL (CH) 1-1
GAELIC WARRIOR (SH) 5-1
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (GC) 2-1

Sky roll-up pays 98-1

.....


EL FABIOLO (CC) 7-4
DELTA WORK (XC) 5-2
GAELIC WARRIOR (SH) 5-1
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (GC) 2-1

Sky roll-up pays 172-1

.....

GALA MARCEAU (MH) 12-1
EL FABIOLO (CC) 7-4
GAELIC WARRIOR (SH) 5-1
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (GC) 2-1

365 roll-up pays 614-1

.....

And who are the weakest links out of these six?


My order (strongest first) would be:

1 Constitution Hill
2 Delta Work
3 El Fabiolo
4 Gala Marceau
4 Galopin Des Champs
5 Gaelic Warrior

[archie]

If we were to go down the shorties route.......

What do you reckon to these archie (or anyone else for that matter)?

I don't object to any of them specifically but my comment was rather more aimed at the slim chance of getting 4 (or even 3) runners in a novices only yankee. Last month I proposed GDC/El Fab/Mister Policeman/Gaelic Warrior as a balance between pragmatism and adventure. I'm quite open to finding one or even two Bob Olingers but finding four is, in my view, just chucking money away. Ok for free bets I suppose but certainly not a venture for cash betting.

[Eggs]

I don't object to any of them specifically but my comment was rather more aimed at the slim chance of getting 4 (or even 3) runners in a novices only yankee. Last month I proposed GDC/El Fab/Mister Policeman/Gaelic Warrior as a balance between pragmatism and adventure. I'm quite open to finding one or even two Bob Olingers but finding four is, in my view, just chucking money away. Ok for free bets I suppose but certainly not a venture for cash betting.

….there’s nothing to stop us doing the 8-1 double with a couple of novices if that’s what folk want.

[Istabraq]

EL FABIOLO (CC) 7-4
CONSTITUTION HILL (CH) 1-1
GAELIC WARRIOR (SH) 5-1
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (GC) 2-1

Sky roll-up pays 98-1

Personally love this, if only Sky had shops !
Do it and move onto September,,,

[BuckingThe Trend]

Personally love this, if only Sky had shops !
Do it and move onto September,,,

Yep. Love this too. Have pushed my luck and added Paddington in Sussex Stakes and Bravemansgame in King George to make it a 401.5/1 Acca x6 with bet365. You only live once !

[Lobos]

My order (strongest first) would be:
1 Constitution Hill
2 Delta Work
3 El Fabiolo
4 Gala Marceau
4 Galopin Des Champs
5 Gaelic Warrior


Disagree straight away with 1. Norton's as we are still no clearer to knowing where he'll turn up.

2. Has Galvin and likely at least another GN bound horse to beat.

3. Can't really disagree unless CH turns up against him in which case he would be a bigger price than he is now.

4. 5yo record puts me off and Lossiemouth was far superior last season anyway.

4. Tick

5. smaller tick as IEP may end up going Stayers ?

[Istabraq]

Yep. Love this too. Have pushed my luck and added Paddington in Sussex Stakes and Bravemansgame in King George to make it a 401.5/1 Acca x6 with bet365. You only live once !

Do you cover the four and five folds for smaller stakes ?
If that's a 1 point bet, another 1 point (actually 1.05 points) split across 15 four folds and 6 five folds with the smallest return being around 80/1 still gives you around a 4 point return from a 2 point outlay.
If 3 or more let you down then you've doubled your loss but making a profit from 4/6 has to be sensible, and a tidy profit from 5/6...

[Kautostar]

Personally not a fan of shortie yankees. You land a double and you’re still down. The returns feel pitiful compared to standard yankees even if landing all 4 and then if you get one injured they really are bad value.
We’ve already had el fabiolo in 3, GM and GW in 2 each so any injury to any of those and there’s several bets going down the toilet.
I’d want nrnb so I could go bigger stakes if I was doing a short priced Yankee personally.

[BuckingThe Trend]

Do you cover the four and five folds for smaller stakes ?
If that's a 1 point bet, another 1 point (actually 1.05 points) split across 15 four folds and 6 five folds with the smallest return being around 80/1 still gives you around a 4 point return from a 2 point outlay.
If 3 or more let you down then you've doubled your loss but making a profit from 4/6 has to be sensible, and a tidy profit from 5/6...

That is exactly what I have done. 15 x 4 Folds and 6 x 5 Folds. 4 Folds vary from 22/1 to 156.5/1. 5 Folds vary from 79.5/1 to 261.5/1. A 22 point bet which breaks even if 4 shortest prices win. That make sense ? And one hour after placing the bet I still like it !

[Istabraq]

That is exactly what I have done. 15 x 4 Folds and 6 x 5 Folds. 4 Folds vary from 22/1 to 156.5/1. 5 Folds vary from 79.5/1 to 261.5/1. A 22 point bet which breaks even if 4 shortest prices win. That make sense ? And one hour after placing the bet I still like it !

Yeah I think that's sensible, hadn't realised the shortest four fold pays only 22/1 but that's because I'm old.
Nonetheless I still think it's the right way to play it.
Best of luck !

PS - get yourself a diary...

[Black Dog]

That is exactly what I have done. 15 x 4 Folds and 6 x 5 Folds. 4 Folds vary from 22/1 to 156.5/1. 5 Folds vary from 79.5/1 to 261.5/1. A 22 point bet which breaks even if 4 shortest prices win. That make sense ? And one hour after placing the bet I still like it !

I think someone's getting an "F-,must try harder" on their maths homework