May 2023 Yankee

[Middle_Of_March]

Of the nominations so far, I have to say I do like the Nick Rockette and Brighterdaysahead suggestions

Long way to go this month though and plenty of time

[Eggs]

This time of year is always tricky for the yankee but races like the BANC, Stayers, Ballymore, NH Chase might be a little easier to find horses with a chance and whose target might be a little clearer (he says).
Embassy Gardens is one I've been chipping away for the NH Chase, can't imagine he'll be looking anywhere else and is 25/1.

I'm still a Gala Marceau believer, the extra half mile I think will suit her better than Lossiemouth and she is 20/1.
Saxon Warrior is a big fan of West Balboa at 20/1 in the same race

I'm still struggling to see why Good Time Jonny is still 33/1 for the Stayers and in the same race Shoot First was massively hyped before the Pertemps last season and talked about as a future Stayers champion, Hills have that one at 40/1.

Good Land has to be of interest to some in here for the Turners, 20/1 ?

I'm sure we'll find four...

…..they might be tricky but ironically, I think the April and May Yankees were the ones that realised decent profit last season.

[Saxon Warrior]

He won’t be in this months. He IS a certainty this year. All the years have been leading to this. He’s a stayer. That’s where it was going wrong. To have run that well over 2m and 2m 4f just shows what a weapon he is.

Gaelic wins the stayers by 5 lengths. Up the good thing

Never the calmest, when this horse is mentioned Middle_Of_March

I hope you are right.

He is one of 7 or 8 Festival horses that interest me for specific races at the moment.

Calm and measured build-up of a position on him through the summer.

Theres little beyond those few, that interest me in individual markets a.t.m.

Which is a blessing really.

No urgency to back Festival horses this far out unless theres specific targets known, allied to prices that entice early involvement.

Bookies have probably squeezed the juice out of a lot of them at present, so easy to avoid those markets, maybe until the season starts properly in November and we hear more about

● Stable Tours
● Mark Howard, Paul Ferguson, Timeform books
● P2P information from Declan
● French horses coming over to go over hurdles
● Mares being in-foal and not returning to race
● injury issues putting a hold on horses starts for the season, or out altogether.

etc, etc

Then it's time to check if markets know what they're doing.

[Istabraq]

…..they might be tricky but ironically, I think the April and May Yankees were the ones that realised decent profit last season.

I think it was a very early yankee that yielded the Samcro/Envoi Allen double at near 200/1 too…

[Lobos]

Think trainer has said Good Land goes chasing whatever they decide re Constitution Hill. Turners would look the obvious route for him. 20/1 seems reasonable especially considering IEP may go Champion Hurdle if the Hill goes chasing. Can't see the Hill going Turners at all.

[archie]

Keen students will have noted that both of last season's profitable yankees included El Fabiolo.

All my free bets so far have gone on the El Fabiolo/Galopin Des Champs double (8/1 with b365) and, in my view, this should be the foundation for at least one of this season's yankees.

[Middle_Of_March]

I think it was a very early yankee that yielded the Samcro/Envoi Allen double at near 200/1 too…

Relatively confident that was July or August as my Skybet account received a free ?10 bet to celebrate the start of the new football season - but as was their free bets back then it could in fact be put on anything rather than limited to football. I put the selections on here to announce the Yankee and went straight onto my skybet account and stuck them both with Champ for the RSA as a trixie. I remember champ not being nominated but wanting to have Samcro and envoi who I was keen on with them. Was definitely a sky free bet and I’m fairly sure it was for the footy season starting which just have been mid august at the latest. Think it paid around ?1300 too.

It’s quite remarkable that we’ve actually made a profit three of the five years of these and the profit most times has been very healthy - so much so that we’re up overall from them at this point if backing them level stakes across the five years. It’s been fantastic how well they’re been received on here and how so many people get involved. When we talked about starting it back in 2017/2018, nobody knew how or if we would make it work. Think it’s really great how everyone debates them across the month. Id be keen to know how many people bet them. Obviously FJ has lurkers and I imagine a few of those probably throw the odd free bet or whatever on these. If and more importantly WHEN we land all four one year, it’ll almost feel like a coup with dozens of us waiting for the last horse on the same antepost yankee from months in advance. Would be amazing for everyone to win big together. That would be the dream.

[callhimgamblor]

Relatively confident that was July or August as my Skybet account received a free ?10 bet to celebrate the start of the new football season - but as was their free bets back then it could in fact be put on anything rather than limited to football. I put the selections on here to announce the Yankee and went straight onto my skybet account and stuck them both with Champ for the RSA as a trixie. I remember champ not being nominated but wanting to have Samcro and envoi who I was keen on with them. Was definitely a sky free bet and I’m fairly sure it was for the footy season starting which just have been mid august at the latest. Think it paid around ?1300 too.

It’s quite remarkable that we’ve actually made a profit three of the five years of these and the profit most times has been very healthy - so much so that we’re up overall from them at this point if backing them level stakes across the five years. It’s been fantastic how well they’re been received on here and how so many people get involved. When we talked about starting it back in 2017/2018, nobody knew how or if we would make it work. Think it’s really great how everyone debates them across the month. Id be keen to know how many people bet them. Obviously FJ has lurkers and I imagine a few of those probably throw the odd free bet or whatever on these. If and more importantly WHEN we land all four one year, it’ll almost feel like a coup with dozens of us waiting for the last horse on the same antepost yankee from months in advance. Would be amazing for everyone to win big together. That would be the dream.

Love this MoM. Especially that last bit. I bet them. Have done since i joined. Love the knowledge that evwryone brings and these keep the conversation flowing through the quiet months. Since I said it was quiet last week there has been loads so you're actually going to have a job picking four out now! My bad. :-)

[BigChaang]

Always something to discuss here , Even if it's the colour of Spectre's Curtains ! .
Talking of which , We should do one yankee that ends with the Naaid .
That way we can Literally all stand together to watch the last Leg Romp Home !! . .

[Istabraq]

Excellent stuff Middle_Of_March
To be honest the yankees play a huge part of FJ life, they create much needed discussion in the Summer months that wouldn’t exist otherwise, so there’s great value in them.
Keep it up…

[FinalFurlong91]

Relatively confident that was July or August as my Skybet account received a free ?10 bet to celebrate the start of the new football season - but as was their free bets back then it could in fact be put on anything rather than limited to football. I put the selections on here to announce the Yankee and went straight onto my skybet account and stuck them both with Champ for the RSA as a trixie. I remember champ not being nominated but wanting to have Samcro and envoi who I was keen on with them. Was definitely a sky free bet and I’m fairly sure it was for the footy season starting which just have been mid august at the latest. Think it paid around ?1300 too.

It’s quite remarkable that we’ve actually made a profit three of the five years of these and the profit most times has been very healthy - so much so that we’re up overall from them at this point if backing them level stakes across the five years. It’s been fantastic how well they’re been received on here and how so many people get involved. When we talked about starting it back in 2017/2018, nobody knew how or if we would make it work. Think it’s really great how everyone debates them across the month. Id be keen to know how many people bet them. Obviously FJ has lurkers and I imagine a few of those probably throw the odd free bet or whatever on these. If and more importantly WHEN we land all four one year, it’ll almost feel like a coup with dozens of us waiting for the last horse on the same antepost yankee from months in advance. Would be amazing for everyone to win big together. That would be the dream.

The final of the 4 winners would probably go off odds on as the bookies desperately scramble to limit this massive liability that just popped up haha

[Lobos]

Always something to discuss here , Even if it's the colour of Spectre's Curtains ! .
Talking of which , We should do one yankee that ends with the Naaid .
That way we can Literally all stand together to watch the last Leg Romp Home !! . .

Guaranteed to be Jeffrey's Cross next March.

[callhimgamblor]

How about second/third place progressions...?

Given the following assumptions about standard race progressions if moving from NHF to hurdles or hurdles to chase etc:

Champion Bumper --> Supreme / Ballymore
Supreme --> Arkle
Ballymore --> Turners / Brown Advisory
Arkle --> Champion Chase
Brown Advisory --> Ryanair / Gold Cup

So....

Champion Bumper:
2. Fact To File --> Supreme (16/1) / Ballymore (10/1)
3. Captain Teague --> Supreme (33/1) / Ballymore (16/1)

Supreme:
2. Facile Vega --> Arkle (5/1)
3. Diverge (unlisted)

Ballymore:
2. Gaelic Warrior (Obv going to the stayers, lol) --> Turners (7/1) / Brown (8/1)
3. Champ Kiely --> Turners (16/1) / Brown (14/1)

Arkle:
2. Jonbon --> Champion Chase (7/1)
3. Saint Roi --> Champion Chase (33/1)

Brown Advisory:
2. Gerri Colombe --> Ryanair (14/1) / Gold Cup (6/1)
3. Bronn --> Ryanair (50/1) / Gold Cup (50/1)

Given the above. I would probably throw the following into the hat for this and/or future month forum yankees.

Fact To File: Ballymore (10/1)
Captain Teague: Ballymore (16/1)
Gaelic Warrior: Turners (7/1)
Jonbon --> Champion Chase (7/1)
Gerri Colombe --> Gold Cup (6/1)

Of the above I particularly like the Fact to file and Gerri Colombe picks.

[Lobos]

Unfortunately Diverge is no longer with us

[somer1]

12s and 14s for Gala Marceau isnt a bad price in a yankee