May 2023 Yankee

[Saxon Warrior]

Wow, 33/1, staggering price.
Hope you climbed in SW…

I did,

Part of the reason was that on 20th March when I took that Ryanair bet for Impervious and mentioned it on here - is that I hoped Dinoblue would be JPs Mares Chase horse.

She already had a 148 RPR for her 2nd at Cheltenham the week before, so it wasn’t a leap of faith for me to see her as a 150-160 RPR horse

Since then her form rather skyrocketed (for Mares Chase assessment) winning at the Fairyhouse Easter Festival with a 154 RPR and then again easily at the Punchestown Festival with a 158 RPR, which is only 1lb below what Impervious posted to win this seasons Mares Chase.

In that period Impervious raised her game further with an 11-length Grade 2 Mares Chase win carrying a 5lb penalty, and getting a 162 RPR (equal to 169 when getting 7lb from the boys).

On official ratings in Ireland now its

Impervious 158
Dinoblue 155

I honestly can’t see them both lining up in a race together at Cheltenham (ie the Mares Chase) and I would expect connections to have Dinoblue up in trip early season to see if she is definitely the one for the Mares Chase

That confirmed (hopefully) then Impervious can step into open Grade 1s, and become the Ryanair horse for the owner, with Jonbon (OR 166) his Queen Mum horse.

Theres a Trixie/treble to play around with.

As a comparison

Impervious lined up before winning the Mares Chase in March with

an OR of 151,
an RPR of 155

Dinoblue is higher than those figures already

——————————

Envoi Allen lined up before winning the Ryanair Chase in March with

an OR of 163
a best RPR of 167 that season

Impervious has an OR of 165 (inc 7lb allowance) and an RPR of 169 (inc 7lb allowance)
That’s higher than Envoi Allen/Ryanair winner already.

So there’s no reason to think, on pure ability that these two horses couldn’t win those two races next year, given a run in the race and a fair journey round.

For me, the step up in trip for Dinoblue would seal the deal

Of course for Yankee purposes, the Ryanair isn't always full of "knowns" this far out.

[Eggs]

…. Impervious was definitely 33-1 with BFSB on 21st March which ties in nicely with Saxon Warrior post. Terrific stuff

Hoping all is well with MoM & we hear from him overnight!!

[Saxon Warrior]

…. Impervious was definitely 33-1 with BFSB on 21st March which ties in nicely with Saxon Warrior post. Terrific stuff

Hoping all is well with MoM & we hear from him overnight!!

I coupdnt believe my luck

Hoping it isn't misplaced

[Istabraq]

Colm talked about potentially taking on the boys in the Turners, so he certainly isn't pigeon holing her to Mares only races.

Was he drunk on that interview ?
Fair play to him if he can sneak her in the Turners…

[BookieBasher]

Was he drunk on that interview ?
Fair play to him if he can sneak her in the Turners…

I think that interview was pre Cheltenham this year with a view of maybe taking in the Turners.

[Eggs]

….hoping MoM is ok, a bit concerned he hasn’t posted on this thread for 10 days.

Hopefully he posts his selections tonight, I’d be fairly confident we know 3 of them from what he’s already said. Perhaps take a view tomorrow & agree the way forward. I’m probably not alone having free bets to use that are time bound.

[callhimgamblor]

I agree Eggs.

Interesting point about Impervious and Envoi both being tipped for the Ryanair. I think if one does make it into the May yankee then I think the other should be in the June one....

[Kautostar]

I agree Eggs.

Interesting point about Impervious and Envoi both being tipped for the Ryanair. I think if one does make it into the May yankee then I think the other should be in the June one....

Impervious is in the April Yankee

[callhimgamblor]

Good point! EA then I guess...

[Eggs]

….we know MoM is a night owl but sadly still no appearance overnight. I suggest we give it until midday today before concluding this months selection. That gives our leader a bit more time & allows us a few hours to decide the last selection ‘by committee’.

There is general agreement that MoM had already identified 3 for this month. On 15th May he specifically mentioned Brighterdaysahead (MNH) & Nick Rockett (BANC). Then on 21st May after an impressive performance in France and plenty of nominations for Gala Marceau (MH), MOM said he’d found his 3rd selection.

Hopefully, you agree with reasonable certainty that MoM has;

Gala Marceau (MH) general 12-1
Nick Rockett (BANC) 25-1 Available
BDA (MNH) 12-1 is a bit of a stand-out with Sky, 10-1 with 365.

I have had a quick read through the thread and will suggest the options for selection no4 below.

[Eggs]

….I’ve looked through the thread and there are a few that have a bit of support for the 4th selection. There was mixed views on A Dream to Share (Sup) & IEP (Turners), mainly over uncertainty of target. Impervious (Ryanair) is popular but it was pointed out he’s included in a previous Yankee so I suggest we go with one of the following;

Good Land 20-1 (Turners); nominated by BigChaang & supported by others. Trainer has apparently confirmed he goes Chasing over mid-trip.

Maxxum 25-1 (NHC); nominated by Istabraq & supported by others. Already meets the distance qualification criteria even if it wasn’t the most impressive round of jumping.

Envoi Allen 10-1 (Ryanair); nominated by Lobos, target seems clear and a decent price for a returning Champion.

Premier Magic 12-1 (Hunter Chase); another returning champion this time nominated by BagOfHammers. Not all firms have this priced up but PP/Sky offer 12-1.

Hope I’m not being presumptuous but we need to sort this. If you’re happy with the approach, I suggest we go with one of the above four as our final selection. Let’s have your votes.

[The Fellow]

Good Land for me as well

[somer1]

Eggs As MOM is a no show and you have read all though I think it’s your shout mate.

[Eggs]

Eggs As MOM is a no show and you have read all though I think it’s your shout mate.

…oh shit!!!

I’ll see what folk say in response to my posts and make a decision later. We’ll be good to go at midday.

[Captain Chris]

I'll tentatively vote for Premier Magic. Really liked Good Land pre-Cheltenham but don't think he stands a chance of turning around the form with IEP. Maxxum would be my choice if we had any indication from Elliott that the NHC was his goal