April 2023 Yankee

[Eggs]

…I imagine nobody will argue if MoM selects his beloved GW for BANC after that impressive win.

[somer1]

Even money today was way to big and all gone on the BANC

[BuckingThe Trend]

Thoughts he may go to The Stayers Hurdle rather than the BANC ? Got to be a chance of him staying hurdling hasn't there ?

[Lobos]

…I imagine nobody will argue if MoM selects his beloved GW for BANC after that impressive win.

Ummmmmmmm......


Clearly a much better horse RH but........... he doesn't operate as well going the other way. The facts are there for all to see.

[somer1]

GDC at 2s Gold Cups a big price now.

[FinalFurlong91]

GDC at 2s Gold Cups a big price now.

I was hoping he'd be bigger tbh

2s is pretty tight after losing to a handicapper

[Exar Essay]

GDC at 2s Gold Cups a big price now.

Mental price after that. He was a bigger price in the immediate aftermath of his GC win. Should be at least 5/2.

[Eggs]

….so, is GDC in or out? Does Middle_Of_March include his favourite GW in the BANC or Stayers or is there enough doubt in his mind to leave him out.

Decision time.

[nortonscoin200]

It's a struggle at this time of year to find four horses at decent odds with nailed on targets that look like decent betting opportunities.

So I'm siding with four each way options at big prices which make the risk worthwhile imo.

All the prices quoted here are PP/BF which is the best I could find for this little combo:


QUEENS BROOK (Mares Hurdle) at 33-1:

Her Festival record is absolutely top notch and she's never been out of the frame in 14 career starts.

She was third in the Mares Hurdle last month (beaten 5 3/4 lengths by Honeysuckle), second in the race last year (less than 2 lengths behind Marie's Rock) and third in the 2020 Bumper (less than 6 lengths behind Ferny Hollow).

Queens Brook will be 9 next year and with Honeysuckle retired and Willie possibly tempted to give Lossiemouth a tilt at the Champion Hurdle it looks a wide open race - and barring injury Queens Brook will almost certainly be in the line-up, I'd say.

She's a proven performer over course and distance and imo she's much better than a a33-1 shot.



CHAMP KIELY (National Hunt Chase) at 33-1:

Nine of the last 13 winners of this race have been trained by Gordon (5 if you include Galvin, which I do) and Willie (4).

So I'm not inclined to bet against this pair being consciously uncoupled from the NHC.

And such is Willie's dominance I'm not prepared to bet against his vast reservoir of talented novice hurdlers from this season providing the NHC winner next March.

He's won it with Back In Focus, Rathvinden, Stattler and Gaillard Du Mesnil - and their hurdles form does provide us with a few clues as to who might do the business next March.

All four were rated above 140 over hurdles - and were aged 8, 10, 7 and 7 when they won the NHC.

Rathvinden (3rd) and Gaillard Du Mesnil (2nd) had both placed in the Ballymore.

And that's where Champ Kiely fits the bill very nicely at odds of 33-1.

He'll be 8 next year so a crack at the NHC and possibly the Grand National in time is probably the height of his ambition.

Back In Focus was 8 and Rathvinden was 10 when they won this while Stattler and GDM were 7.

With a hurdles rating of 147 and all his best form over mid-trips (the furthest he's gone with Willie) I can see Champ Kiely getting the nod as his number one for the NHC.

The price makes the target uncertainty worthwhile in my view, specially as I'm hoping the next selection will be Willie's BANC horse.



NICK ROCKETT (BANC) at 20-1:

Saxon Warrior has made the case for this one, he's a year younger than Champ Kiely, and I reckon he's a must for the yankee at current odds (you can still get 25-1 in places).


AHOY SENOR (Gold Cup) at 33-1:

I was sorely tempted to side with Fastorslow because this will surely be his target and he'll have a big chance in my view.

Don't get the argument that he's only a handicapper - and 3m 2f round a course where he has twice been touched off will be bang up his street imo.

The only think that puts me off is the 12-1 being offered by PP/BF which is about right but far from mouth-watering compared to the 20-1 with 365.

So the value bet for me has to be Ahoy Senor who was better than ever over fences this season and will still only be 9 next year.

He was lobbing along in front and jumping beautifully in the Gold Cup until he paid the price for a mistake near the top of the hill on the final circuit.

I don't think he'd have been far away if - big IF I know - he'd stood up.

But imagine he'll be back for another go next year and 33-1 is a big price for a horse with his talent.


0.1pt each way yankee on the above returns 916,913pts

If they all place the return is 3765pts

[BigChaang]

Not just me that think's Champ Kiely want's a Longer Trip then Nortonscoin . ( I was thinking B.A.N.C though .) ..

[callhimgamblor]

If CH is such a trouble maker for the arkle, CH etc and we think that will be the case until October then we should do the next 4 Yankees with the 4 different options in mind.

I.e. IF CH goes Champion Hurdle then....

Then MaY couls be IF CH goes Arkle then.....

And so on.

[callhimgamblor]

For my two pennies, by the way, I think he stays hurdling and stays to dominate the Champion Hurdle scene for the next few years.

[Captain Chris]

GDC at 2s Gold Cups a big price now.

If we're going to stick a 2/1 shot in, I think I'd heavily side with El Fabiolo. Seen off the main British challenger comfortably and the reigning champ is turning 10 and possibly (probably) regressing. The Gold Cup always has a few worthy challengers (Gerri, Fastorslow?, Bravemansgame etc) as the pinnacle of the sport, whereas the Champion Chase can be quite weak.

[Ice]

If we're going to stick a 2/1 shot in, I think I'd heavily side with El Fabiolo. Seen off the main British challenger comfortably and the reigning champ is turning 10 and possibly (probably) regressing. The Gold Cup always has a few worthy challengers (Gerri, Fastorslow?, Bravemansgame etc) as the pinnacle of the sport, whereas the Champion Chase can be quite weak.

El fab is the one I'm trying to get onside using doubles/multis, if he gets there fit and well he's gonna take some beating.

[callhimgamblor]

So..... GDC, CH, El Fab and ?? in a shorty win Yankee? Seems there aren't many other nailed on horse/race combos out there not already covered in March.