2024 Champion Hurdle (Previously Constitution Hill thread)

[DenmanSacre]

State Man is brilliant. Willie's had some top notch 2 milers but I wouldn't back against him in an imaginary race between them. Hopefully give Constitution Hill a good race. Could easily win it - CH's prep hasn't exactly gone to plan and he needs to be near or at his best to beat State Man.

[Muswell]

https://x.com/asymondsjourno/status/1754170224813687154?s=46&t=6cBuNXVl_Hk5QPgLPgxL6Q

[Carnage at Taunton]

Very sensible move that, race will suit him

[TigerRolllllll]

Very sensible move that, race will suit him

Irish point going stayers then

[Lobos]

Irish point going stayers then

Fab-u-lous!!

[Carnage at Taunton]

Irish point going stayers then

I very much hope so

[FinalFurlong91]

Irish point going stayers then

He could run in the 3 mile at Aintree if they really wanted to separate him, Bob and teahupoo

[TigerRolllllll]

Ok, so bound to get pelters for this....but not sure been enough discussion as to whether State Man could actually win this year and beat CH?

Trying to be rational about it,,,,and in the belief that good punting is about the odds vs chance, rather than the most likely winner. This is a 2-horse race and at 7-2, State Man would only need to win 1 in 4 races to show profit

Looking at 2023 first.....CH was a monster 174-177 on every run (except Aintree), with his best at Chelt....and State Man 165-168 (again excel last run at Punch, when both poss over top). So the gap was about 8 pounds

Moving to 2024, State Man has improved by couple pounds on both his runs (167-170) excl DRF not yet in)....with both paul & Willie believing he has improved. Assuming a peak at Cheltenham, he could prob run to say 172-ish

In 2024, CH has had one run, recording a 163, his lowest since early novice days. Now obviously, he still looked good then and wasn't pushed, but the same could be said of his 2023 first run, where he ran 174. Since then, he has missed a race with a bad scope.

If CH performed as well as in 2023 in the Champ Hurdle, the gap is still only 5 pounds-ish, which is one bad hurdle, or jockey error......and that's before you then factor in the Q's which must be asked about CH......this season has not gone to plan and if added in Aintree, that's 2 fairly avg runs since last year

So - in a two-horse race, does State Man have a 1 in 4 chance or better......and i think it can be argued he does

I do have CH in the book via some doubles, but im going to make a bigger play on State Man.....not least to have one to cheer more on day. Im prob nuts, but i think the odds say its a bet.

[Exar Essay]

If Betfair are correct then Impaire Et Passe has been scratched from the Champion Hurdle.

Edit: No Stayers entry either.

[Benjy23]

Ok, so bound to get pelters for this....but not sure been enough discussion as to whether State Man could actually win this year and beat CH?

If you want to get pelters do it properly, and suggest an each way bet at 7/2 with 1/5 odds for a place.

10pt each way
3pt loss if he finishes 2nd or 3rd
42pt profit if he wins

People hate this. I think it makes much more sense.

[TigerRolllllll]

If you want to get pelters do it properly, and suggest an each way bet at 7/2 with 1/5 odds for a place.

10pt each way
3pt loss if he finishes 2nd or 3rd
42pt profit if he wins

People hate this. I think it makes much more sense.

Great idea..,,just not good for keeping one’s accounts i guess

[Leman14]

If Betfair are correct then Impaire Et Passe has been scratched from the Champion Hurdle.

Edit: No Stayers entry either.

I think that I probably ask this every year.. but.....
When do bookies tend to refund NRNB stakes, if entries are scratched?

Should we start to see funds reappearing in accounts in the next 24-48 hours, OR do they tend to wait until 6 day decs??

[Kautostar]

I think that I probably ask this every year.. but.....
When do bookies tend to refund NRNB stakes, if entries are scratched?

Should we start to see funds reappearing in accounts in the next 24-48 hours, OR do they tend to wait until 6 day decs??

Hills was after final decs last year

[Kevloaf]

What did Paul Townend say over the weekend about how they tried to run the race last year, was it that they tried to beat the rest or was it they tried to beat Constitution Hill? Could do with watching that back as one way round you could take as a positive

How did State Man run in a County Hurdle haha

[Bollinger]

Ok, so bound to get pelters for this....but not sure been enough discussion as to whether State Man could actually win this year and beat CH?

Trying to be rational about it,,,,and in the belief that good punting is about the odds vs chance, rather than the most likely winner. This is a 2-horse race and at 7-2, State Man would only need to win 1 in 4 races to show profit

Looking at 2023 first.....CH was a monster 174-177 on every run (except Aintree), with his best at Chelt....and State Man 165-168 (again excel last run at Punch, when both poss over top). So the gap was about 8 pounds

Moving to 2024, State Man has improved by couple pounds on both his runs (167-170) excl DRF not yet in)....with both paul & Willie believing he has improved. Assuming a peak at Cheltenham, he could prob run to say 172-ish

In 2024, CH has had one run, recording a 163, his lowest since early novice days. Now obviously, he still looked good then and wasn't pushed, but the same could be said of his 2023 first run, where he ran 174. Since then, he has missed a race with a bad scope.

If CH performed as well as in 2023 in the Champ Hurdle, the gap is still only 5 pounds-ish, which is one bad hurdle, or jockey error......and that's before you then factor in the Q's which must be asked about CH......this season has not gone to plan and if added in Aintree, that's 2 fairly avg runs since last year

So - in a two-horse race, does State Man have a 1 in 4 chance or better......and i think it can be argued he does

I do have CH in the book via some doubles, but im going to make a bigger play on State Man.....not least to have one to cheer more on day. Im prob nuts, but i think the odds say it’s wasa bet.

Whilst I would have to disagree strongly with your opinion about the chances of State Man up against Con’ Hill (though please don’t take that personally, as any bookmakers current Champ hurdle odds would also strongly disagree), I would suggest it can sometimes be a tiny bit dangerous to say ‘This is a 2 horse race’.

Whilst I would agree it’s going to take the performance of a lifetime from ‘another horse’ and the two main protagonists will have to run 10-15 lb’s below their normal runs, it might be worth taking people back to the Champ Hurdle of 2019.

That one was simply a 3 horse race between Beveur D’Air, Apple’ Jade & Laurina.

One of them never made it even halfway round and the other 2 never placed.