2024 Champion Hurdle (Previously Constitution Hill thread)

[Quevega]

Yep, it’s an interesting one isn’t it Q?

What I’d like to ask you, and your opinion, is if you were a bookmaker and a punter walked in with a very serious wedge of money and asked you to take half hour out to price up (sensibly) the odds of Constitution Hill winning the next 3 Champ Hurdles over the next 30 months period of time, what price would you like to lay that as a liability ??

The 3 key components which will contribute to your decision making for the price -

1) Constitution Hill is unbeaten. As both a ‘juvenile’ in his races, and in open company in his races, he hasn’t received as much a flick of the reigns from his jockey, and has appeared to just strongly canter over his 2 mile distance. He is unbeaten on the course. His grade 1’ wins at the festival were over a combined 30+ lengths over Jonbon & State Man - two very good horses. Both horses still finished 2nd. The trainer has confirmed that this will be the horses ‘route’ going forwards.

2) The horse might get injured (presenty & historically, his injury record over 24 months is blemish free).The horse may encounter another ‘once in a generation’ horse during those 3 Champion Hurdies, and be inferior, and lose to that horse.

3) As a bookmaker, you currently have him priced at 1/2 for ‘part 1 of 3 of the event’i in six months time.


What price would you offer as a bookmaker as a liability towards yourself Q? Not as what you think you should be getting as a punter, but you as a bookmaker would offer?

I called it on here a week ago as 5/1, because I genuinely felt that was Con Hill’s liability for the next 30 months.

Yours as a bookmaker, of course, might be a touch different. Fully appreciated.

5-1 is around 5/6 odds on each race.
I’d expect in the three renewals he’d likely face new challenges each time and the lack of uk based opponents during the season won’t help him.

it’s also never been done before because staying fit and at peak is so difficult over time.
The reverse of that is that state man emerges as best of the Irish again this year, and he has a free hit.

You could get decent money at evens this year on the day.


id be around the 8-1 shot for any stakes and 10-1 or bigger for a smaller liability.

[Quevega]

A reasonable comparison would be Big Bucks SPs for his 3rd and 4th stayers.
10/11 & 5/6
hed have traded shorter through both seasons at times im sure.
Quevega was also closer to evens than 1/2 SP for her multiple victories also.

So for a long term bet 5-1 doesn’t attract

[Bollinger]

5-1 is around 5/6 odds on each race.
I’d expect in the three renewals he’d likely face new challenges each time and the lack of uk based opponents during the season won’t help him.

it’s also never been done before because staying fit and at peak is so difficult over time.
The reverse of that is that state man emerges as best of the Irish again this year, and he has a free hit.

You could get decent money at evens this year on the day.
id be around the 8-1 shot for any stakes and 10-1 or bigger for a smaller liability.

Well, if he’s fit, we’ll and unbeaten come March 12th snd you’re the bookie offering me evens on the morning, I will bang your door down with the hugest of stakes I will ever likely muster

[Quevega]

Well, if he’s fit, we’ll and unbeaten come March 12th snd you’re the bookie offering me evens on the morning, I will bang your door down with the hugest of stakes I will ever likely muster

I meant the race he won this year 2023
He was available at even money.

This year depends on the Irish challengers again
If state man dominates then I’d See CH around 1/3 Sp

If something else emerges then he’ll be nearer 4/6, depending on the Irish form on paper.

[Exar Essay]

I meant the race he won this year 2023
He was available at even money.

This year depends on the Irish challengers again
If state man dominates then I’d See CH around 1/3 Sp

If something else emerges then he’ll be nearer 4/6, depending on the Irish form on paper.

Edit - I went to argue with you but see you changed the SP to 1/3 ... that's where I'd have him in that scenario.

[Quevega]

Edit - I went to argue with you but see you changed the SP to 1/3 ... that's where I'd have him in that scenario.

Lol
no reading glasses on
and sat by pool in 28 degrees
It’s not easy

[Saxon Warrior]

[QUOTE=jono;n428458]Personally I'm not too concerned about the level of last years Supreme.
In relation to either past renewals or say the Champion Hurdle, and how good the winner is from that.
It would be a bigger consideration were the Ballymore horses to come into the Arkle recognition, or going from novice to open company.

The Arkle prices are relative to the horses that contested the Supreme.
With what looks like very few new formlines to come into the race.

Taking out the State Man and Impaire et Passe from the market and the top 3 in the market has the 1st, 2nd and 4th from the Supreme.
How good the Supreme was may not particularly matter if the same horses contest the Arkle 12 months later.
No Ballymore horses will line up in the race.

There are of course a few horses who do bring different form lines into the market, at bigger prices.
The much discussed Mister Policeman, Hercule du Seuil, Hunters Yarn etc.
And if you do

Personally I'm not too concerned about the level of last years Supreme.
In relation to either past renewals or say the Champion Hurdle, and how good the winner is from that.
It would be a bigger consideration were the Ballymore horses to come into the Arkle recognition, or going from novice to open company.

The Arkle prices are relative to the horses that contested the Supreme.
With what looks like very few new formlines to come into the race.

Taking out the State Man and Impaire et Passe from the market and the top 3 in the market has the 1st, 2nd and 4th from the Supreme.
How good the Supreme was may not particularly matter if the same horses contest the Arkle 12 months later.
No Ballymore horses will line up in the race.

There are of course a few horses who do bring different form lines into the market, at bigger prices.
The much discussed Mister Policeman, Hercule du Seuil, Hunters Yarn etc.
And if you do consider the Supreme to not quite be as good as some suggest, that's when it may be best to look completely elsewhere, like those mentioned above.

I don't think the Arkle will be made up of Supreme horses.

I'm sure some other strands will come together too.

They usually do.

El Fabiolo didnt run in the Supreme in 2022, didnt run at the Festival, ran in one Graded NovH, and only won a Novice Hurdle and a MdnH.

Edwardstone had reached a bit of a ceiling handicap hurdling the before he won the Arkle. Form 5U1353 (best RPR 152) and was 5th in the County Hurdle

Shishkin won the Supreme and then the Arkle

PTKO came from nowhere prior season to win the Arkle, form 521533 (RPR 121 best) before starting summer chasing.

Duc De Genievres had ran in 5 Grade 1 NovH in 3 months with Form of 32556 (over 2M4F, 2M, 2M5F-Ballymore, 2M4F, 2M4F) then Won the Arkle

Footpad had a 2nd season hurdling, form 24243 (incl 4th in the Champion Hurdle), even finished off in a 3M Grade 1, btn 18L before winning the Arkle a year later.

It's easy to focus on Supreme-Arkle as it is where the Arkle market establishes itself each season

The other 5 of the last 6 Arkle winners came from different directions though, were either big prices for the Arkle, or werent even quoted for it at this point.

Most turned up in the Arkle as short priced chances, before winning though.

My own view is if you really rate the Supreme form as rock solid and M.Nat as another Altior, Douvan or Shishkin waiting to win the Arkle after the Supreme then you can dig into him all season.

But if you're not sure how good the Supreme form is, and are willing to give a wider scope to potential Arkle winners, then they come from anywhere and many different directions -
and at potentially big prices.

[Hurricane fly]

Saxon, it is a good point however I would disagree and say that Supreme is absolutely the right place to start with.

The recent Arkle winners you listed never faced the previous years supreme winners for one reason or another.

El Fabiolo - Supreme winner did not contest. Beat the second in Jonbon, but already had a form line from Aintree so wasn't missed in the market by this point. But a placed supreme horse placed
Edwardstone - Supreme winner did not contest, Blue Lord would have placed in the supreme and placed in the Arkle (on antepost terms anyway)
PTKO - Supreme winner did not contest, neither did any of the placed
DDG - Supreme winner did not contest.

Footpad - Supreme winner did not contest, infact no horse from the supreme did

The last 3 winners of the Supreme that went for the Arkle won it. We know Marinenationale is going chasing so that is one of the two boxes checked, if he stays fit recent history would suggests he wins it.

When placed supreme horses compete they typically place aswell.



Unless you are Champagne Fever.

[Exar Essay]

There's plenty of left field choices about too, outside of the Supreme top four. You'd be forgiven for striking the following our for various reasons, but they'd not compare to PTKO in terms of being from out of nowhere:

• Mister Policeman
• Hunters yarn
• Arctic Bresil
• Sharjah
• I Like To Move It
• Corbetts Cross (it is Emmet after all)
• Heat Wood
• Il Est Francais

[Quevega]

Saxon, it is a good point however I would disagree and say that Supreme is absolutely the right place to start with.

The recent Arkle winners you listed never faced the previous years supreme winners for one reason or another.

El Fabiolo - Supreme winner did not contest. Beat the second in Jonbon, but already had a form line from Aintree so wasn't missed in the market by this point. But a placed supreme horse placed
Edwardstone - Supreme winner did not contest, Blue Lord would have placed in the supreme and placed in the Arkle (on antepost terms anyway)
PTKO - Supreme winner did not contest, neither did any of the placed
DDG - Supreme winner did not contest.

Footpad - Supreme winner did not contest, infact no horse from the supreme did

The last 3 winners of the Supreme that went for the Arkle won it. We know Marinenationale is going chasing so that is one of the two boxes checked, if he stays fit recent history would suggests he wins it.

When placed supreme horses compete they typically place aswell.



Unless you are Champagne Fever.

Yep
I mentioned a few weeks back that when supreme winners go novice chasing they rarely fail.
We’ve just had a few years when the supreme novices have not gone that route.
There’s a reason sax only went back 6 years

[Saxon Warrior]

Saxon, it is a good point however I would disagree and say that Supreme is absolutely the right place to start with.

The recent Arkle winners you listed never faced the previous years supreme winners for one reason or another.

El Fabiolo - Supreme winner did not contest. Beat the second in Jonbon, but already had a form line from Aintree so wasn't missed in the market by this point. But a placed supreme horse placed
Edwardstone - Supreme winner did not contest, Blue Lord would have placed in the supreme and placed in the Arkle (on antepost terms anyway)
PTKO - Supreme winner did not contest, neither did any of the placed
DDG - Supreme winner did not contest.

Footpad - Supreme winner did not contest, infact no horse from the supreme did

The last 3 winners of the Supreme that went for the Arkle won it. We know Marinenationale is going chasing so that is one of the two boxes checked, if he stays fit recent history would suggests he wins it.

When placed supreme horses compete they typically place aswell.



Unless you are Champagne Fever.

I didn’t say it wasn’t the place to start from.

It is the place to start from, for sure.

Particularly with a Nicky Henderson Supreme to Arkle horse.

Without Hendo’s devotion to the Supreme-Arkle with many of his horses (Jonbon went close last season) then you’re right, the Supreme has a pretty poor turnout of winners in the Arkle the following season, for one reason or another.

The Supreme winners, unfortunately dont always turn up in an Arkle, for those that auto-back that Novice Chase route.

Latterly it’s been a complete open house where the Arkle winner comes from
(particularly when Hendo hasn’t had the Supreme winner, the year before)

[jono]

On those horses mentioned that didn’t come from the Supreme, the 2 clear best horses in the division had the hurdle ratings to feature:

El Fabiolo - 150
Footpad - 157

Slightly less so Edwardstone as he had the extra year over hurdles (so had a likelier chance to post higher figures), but he was still 149. And he won a weaker renewal.

Duc de Genievres won a brutal renewal of the race.
I always look back on PTKO’s Arkle as poor. Though the fact she followed up in the Champion Chase, however you feel about both those editions, it’s hard to crab her too much. And she was left field in every sense.

Generally, ratings are a great guide for the following seasons Arkle. Unless the market falls apart from injuries.

This year the ratings are only throwing up a few horses

Marine Nationale 158
Facile Vega 155
Inthepocket 149 (though I’d see him in the Turners)

Which just happen to be 3 of the top 4 from the Supreme.
And of course the outlier of Mister Policeman 150

[Saxon Warrior]

Yep
I mentioned a few weeks back that when supreme winners go novice chasing they rarely fail.
We’ve just had a few years when the supreme novices have not gone that route.
There’s a reason sax only went back 6 years

Main reasons
* The most recent seasons
* Proves the points I was trying to make (it starts from the Supreme, it doesn’t just end there though)
* Hendo is a specialist Supreme-Arkle expert, and he doesn’t have one of those horses from Supreme 23 (so no need to go back to Altior)

Last 50+ years

3 Supreme Winners won the Arkle the next season in 50+ years

2 were from Nicky Henderson - who has nothing from the Supreme this time round.

Supreme 23 - Marine Nationale
Arkle 24 - ?

Supreme 22 - Constitution Hill
Arkle 23 - El Fabiolo

Supreme 21 - Appreciate It
Arkle 22 - Edwardstone

Supreme 20 - Shishkin (Hendo)
Arkle 21 - Shishkin (Hendo) - the Supreme to Arkle master

Supreme 19 - Klassical Dream
Arkle 20 - PTKO

Supreme 18 - Summerville Boy
Arkle 19 - Duc De Genievres

Supreme 17 - Labaik
Arkle 18 - Footpad

Supreme 16 - Altior (Hendo)
Arkle - 17 - Altior (Hendo) - the Supreme to Arkle master

Supreme 15 - Douvan
Arkle 16 - Douvan

Supreme 14 - Vautour
Arkle - 15 - Un De Sceaux

Supreme 13 - Champagne Fever
Arkle 14 - Western Warhorse

Supreme 12 - Cinders and Ashes
Arkle 13 - Simonsig

Supreme. 11 - Al Ferof
Arkle 12 - Sprinter Sacre (Hendo) 3rd in Supreme - the Supreme to Arkle master

Supreme 10 - Menorah
Arkle - 11 - Captain Chris

Supreme 09 - Go Native
Arkle 10 - Sizing Europe

Supreme 08 - Captain Cee Bee
Arkle 09 - Fordpadydeplasterer

Supreme 07 - Ebaziyan
Arkle 08 - Tidal Bay

Supreme 06 - Noland
Arkle 07 - My Way De Solzen

Supreme 05 - Arcalis
Arkle 06 - Voy Por Ustedes

Supreme 04 - Brave Inca
Arkle 05 - Contraband

Supreme 03 - Back In Front
Arkle 04 - Well Chief

Supreme 02 - Like A Butterfly
Arkle 03 - Azertyuiop

NO Supreme or Arkle 2021

Supreme 2000 - Sausalito Bay

Since the Supreme went to one race, instead of having 2 divisions, around 1970, I don’t think the record books show there is another winner of the Supreme that won the Arkle the next season.

Arkle

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arkle_Challenge_Trophy

Supreme

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Novices'_Hurdle

[Outlaw]

I do love it when folk try to take on Sax with stats, it’s akin to trying to beat Constitution Hill over hurdles .

[Lobos]

4 Arkle winners there beginning with 'S'.

Step forward..........
.......................


Sharjah