2024 Champion Hurdle (Previously Constitution Hill thread)

[Istabraq]

I fear for connections if, as expected, he stays hurdling.
There is always a clamour for horses to try new trips/new challenges and it generally detracts from their actual achievements if they stick to plan A.
2, 3 and who knows, 4 champion hurdles are in the offing but you just know there will be a chorus of criticism, some of that will come from the media.
I just hope everyone can acknowledge whatever he does win for the rest of his career…

[Lobos]

I'd applaud him if he did win another 3, of course I would, but the odds are completely against him doing just that. Even 2 more would be a huge achievement. To just keep a top notch horse sound these days and get them to the races is a huge challenge. That's why I believe they should just go for it now, whilst they can and give him the opportunity of doing what no other horse has ever done. Even winning the Arkle or Champion Chase this coming season would create History. You need to grab it by the balls when you can. I just hope they take up the challenge and don't disappoint the horse. If they've tried him over a fence and he's not impressed then fair enough but if he looks a natural over them then they just have to give him the chance to be a Great.

[Lobos]

I wasn’t very taken with his finish over 2M4F at Aintree, I thought at the loner trip he would just saunter further away - didn’t happen the way I thought it would.

Maybe that’s helping the decision to stay hurdling.

He won in a canter Sax. He wasn't even challenged to produce anything up the run in. He won as he pleased. I don't understand why anyone could say from that Aintree race that he wouldn't/couldn't stay further. He looked like he could go round again.

[Lobos]

Henderson strange after his Aintree victory....

“That couldn’t have been more straightforward,” Henderson said. “Two-and-a-half miles out there on your own, your mind could wander, but he’s just had a doddle around and was in second gear the whole way.
“I’m sure he’d get three miles, but there’ll be no decisions made today about next year. I’m not saying we won’t school him over a fence, but we’re not leaning any way.

[Atlantic Viking]

I felt at the time of the Aintree run that he was handled as carefully as possible just to make sure he got round and that it didn't tell us much either way. It's obvious he's sticking with the Champion Hurdle now anyway so at least it'll sort a few market out early on and there's still time to take advantage, if you haven't already.

[Quevega]

I'd applaud him if he did win another 3, of course I would, but the odds are completely against him doing just that. Even 2 more would be a huge achievement. To just keep a top notch horse sound these days and get them to the races is a huge challenge. That's why I believe they should just go for it now, whilst they can and give him the opportunity of doing what no other horse has ever done. Even winning the Arkle or Champion Chase this coming season would create History. You need to grab it by the balls when you can. I just hope they take up the challenge and don't disappoint the horse. If they've tried him over a fence and he's not impressed then fair enough but if he looks a natural over them then they just have to give him the chance to be a Great.

Ahem !
As you've declared yourself the Godfather of mares, I found this part of your comment a disgrace.

[Spectre]

You've got no chance!!! (0.0% of a chance)

I've corrected that so it's accurate RTC.

[Saxon Warrior]

He won in a canter Sax. He wasn't even challenged to produce anything up the run in. He won as he pleased. I don't understand why anyone could say from that Aintree race that he wouldn't/couldn't stay further. He looked like he could go round again.

I think what I mean to say Lobos, was that I truly believed that if that was going to be his last hurdle race (and his last race for 7 months) against that opposition, that I expected them to attempt to put up a spine-tingling runaway win, and break his own personal best, and of those in the Hurdles ratings of the last 40+ years.

Basically put in a run that left everyone saying he’s the best hurdler they have ever seen….then sail of into the sunset for the summer, knowing that they’d achieved everything they could over hurdles, and could now target chasing 100%.

What we got instead was a win by only 3 lengths over Sharjah, who had just been 4th in the County off 155, and then after Aintree was whacked 14 lengths by State Man at Punchestown.

The rating of his Aintree win was 7lb-10lb lower than any races Constitution Hill has run since the Tolworth on only his second Novice hurdles start.

The 2M4F performance, though obviously comfortable, was the weakest performance of the season by some way.

So much for my thoughts, that if he leaves hurdling for good, they’d want to make it with a bang, and take his mark into the 180’s.

They didn’t, so that left the door open for hurdles this coming season, in my view.

[Lobos]

Ahem !
As you've declared yourself the Godfather of mares, I found this part of your comment a disgrace.

I meant Supreme, Champion Hurdle, Arkle or Champion Chase. The Gold Cup would be a bonus. I'd never forget Dawn Run. She was my original profile picture until Kev intervened and changed it to a Wolf !

[Lobos]

I've corrected that so it's accurate RTC.

So we can all safely lump on CH at 4/6 then Spectre ??

[Lobos]

I think what I mean to say Lobos, was that I truly believed that if that was going to be his last hurdle race (and his last race for 7 months) against that opposition, that I expected them to attempt to put up a spine-tingling runaway win, and break his own personal best, and of those in the Hurdles ratings of the last 40+ years.

Basically put in a run that left everyone saying he’s the best hurdler they have ever seen….then sail of into the sunset for the summer, knowing that they’d achieved everything they could over hurdles, and could now target chasing 100%.

What we got instead was a win by only 3 lengths over Sharjah, who had just been 4th in the County off 155, and then after Aintree was whacked 14 lengths by State Man at Punchestown.

The rating of his Aintree win was 7lb-10lb lower than any races Constitution Hill has run since the Tolworth on only his second Novice hurdles start.

The 2M4F performance, though obviously comfortable, was the weakest performance of the season by some way.

So much for my thoughts, that if he leaves hurdling for good, they’d want to make it with a bang, and take his mark into the 180’s.

They didn’t, so that left the door open for hurdles this coming season, in my view.

He missed his chance to do that in this year's Champion Hurdle. I think if Nico could run it again he'd have put up the best rating ever. The punters on 10 lengths or more were well gutted !

[Kevloaf]

Amazed this thread is still so active

Time to get behind him as a potential Champion Hurdle great (winning 2) and anything beyond

[Bollinger]

I'd applaud him if he did win another 3, of course I would, but the odds are completely against him doing just that. Even 2 more would be a huge achievement. To just keep a top notch horse sound these days and get them to the races is a huge challenge. That's why I believe they should just go for it now, whilst they can and give him the opportunity of doing what no other horse has ever done. Even winning the Arkle or Champion Chase this coming season would create History. You need to grab it by the balls when you can. I just hope they take up the challenge and don't disappoint the horse. If they've tried him over a fence and he's not impressed then fair enough but if he looks a natural over them then they just have to give him the chance to be a Great.

When you suggest ‘the odds are completely against him doing just that’ (as in 4 champion hurdles, 3 more to win) - what odds would you actually suggest Mr Lobos??

If you asked a bookmaker to price Constitution Hill to win the next 3 champion hurdles (if confirmed next week), and with his prohibitive price for next year’s likely to be hovering around the 1/2 mark if confirmed, then no bookmaker is likely to be offering much more than 5/1 to win the next 3 in ‘24, ‘25 & ‘26, because of the related contingency on his current price anyway for next year’s.

So what odds do you think a bookmaker would offer on Constitution Hill winning just 1 Gold Cup???

The odds currently would be at the very least, the very least, twice as big as him winning the next 3 Champion hurdles.

So if you’re suggesting the ‘odds are completely against him winning the next 3 champion hurdles’ (which would almost be a certainty of a single figure price), then why on Earth would you think it’s a better option to win just 1 Gold Cup, which any bookie right now would give you double the odds on him winning than 3 more champion hurdles guaranteed.

He was only 5/1 in Feb to win the ‘23 & ‘24 editions.

That was before he sauntered all over the best 2 mile open hurdlers a month later.

[Lobos]

Odd that they've made an announcement that they are going to make an announcement next week. If he were staying over Hurdles would they not just come out with it ? Surely more reason to make an announcement that they are going to make an announcement next week if he were going chasing? Just my thoughts.

[Lobos]

Amazed this thread is still so active

Time to get behind him as a potential Champion Hurdle great (winning 2) and anything beyond

Think you are the only one on here Kev that has followed their conviction in with a lumpy bet that he'll be going Champion Hurdle. Maybe you do carry your balls around in a wheelbarrow