2024 Champion Hurdle (Previously Constitution Hill thread)

[Lobos]

. "That was the thing, about matching Dawn Run. Some horses can go from two miles to three miles and I've no doubt he could because his racing brain is so good."

That's pretty convincing I'd say. His CH price and Arkle price with Unibet are the ones I'm interested in and they would still suggest strongly that no decision has yet been made. All about the Schooling session in September. Jumps well and the dream for both owner and trainer (and NH racing fans) is still on.

[Lobos]

i mailed Barry to see if they were schooling and general well being , i got a reply which as usual was short and to the point

Hi John,

All is good with both horses, both enjoying their holidays at our place.

Looking forward to next season

Regards

Barry

so it seems they are still on their hols and both doing well , it would suggest they are still trotting about a field not doing anything which might move MN's price, will just be guessers reading the Mail or a tipster somewhere as suggested ,

In fairness he was a decent EW price with cash out option for the Arkle even if CH went that way so I can understand punters taking a small risk on him going chasing. To be fair, if he did go chasing then the Arkle will be the only race for him which makes life easier.

[Lobos]

A little piece from Barry Geraghty who originally bought Constitution Hill and is still very close to Nicky Henderson....

"The impression I get from connections is that they are keen to go down the chase route and he does jump a hurdle like a horse that will jump a fence really well. There’s certainly potential for even more improvement when a horse goes over the bigger obstacles and his jumping style suggests he should be absolutely fine over fences.
We schooled him at home as a three-year-old over fences and he was really good, while he jumped very well in his point-to-point bar a mistake at the last. He’s the right type of hurdler to go chasing and potentially excel at it."

Barry is a legend of the sport and who's judgement is really respected throughout the NH game.

[Bollinger]

I think Lobos, and for which has been touched upon by FaugheentheMachine, and for which is the very key element here, and the one that I think is being ‘hidden away’ in amongst the opinions, is the one that has nothing to do with his ability to sail over a fence serenely.

The key element is only if Nicky Henderson, and his brainstrust at Sevenbarrows believe firmly, without question, that he’ll get 3 miles. And then the extra quarter mile plus in a a Gold Cup.

What they do know is that in 9 months time, if they stay hurdling, if fully fit, he’ll have an exceptional chance of winning a (and strong odds chance) of winning a Champion hurdle. They know it already. They also know, as we do, that it’s an exceptionally lucrative prize to win. And 12 months after that in 2025, with the horse still only 8, it’d be another exceptionally lucrative prize to win. Again.

What they don’t know, for March 2025, is whether he’ll be good enough to travel over more difficult obstacles, over a hell of trip, and stay fit during a season over tougher obstacles. A lot more horses have injuries over fences than hurdles.

Its not about the Arkle next year, or a Champion Chase - we can talk about any number of double winning Champion Chase horses and dual winning Champion hurdlers in the same breadth - there’s no extra kudos in either race, nor prize money.

If Paddy Power had spent the last 48 hours since the snippet was published in the daily mail, and read every comment posted here, he’d have been 5/4 into 4/6 back out to 6/4 shortened into 4/7 and everything in between. And that’s the difference between punters who 97% of which bookmakers regularly earn from, and the bookies themselves - we use all available evidence of which we ‘think’ we have to construct our opinion, the bookies will only ever use availalable evidence which they ‘know’ they have.

And in the last 48 hours, the bookies haven’t moved a proverbial muscle. They probably don’t even know the snippet exists, nor even care if it exists.

But the true essence of all of this remains - the red herring is whether he jumps a fence well, the substance is whether they absolutely believe he’s a 2025 Gold Cup winner.

It would be an almighty gamble, with the knowledge and evidence they know of him as a hurdler against all known current opponents, to decide to emulate Dawn Run in a little less than 2 years time.

[Lobos]

If he schools well they'll give it a crack. He's already won a Champion Hurdle....job done. The owner is very keen for him to emulate Dawn Run and become a real legend of the game. Will he do that by winning the next two Champion Hurdles.....maybe, maybe not. They'll find out soon enough if he looks like hell stay 3 miles plus. I'd trust jockey and trainer with that one. If he didn't for whatever reason take to fences as they would hope then he could always go back hurdling as with BD. No risk there. As for getting injured......nah, can't be having that one. They can get injured in the field just as easily and that's fact.

[Bollinger]

I have no ‘facts’, but if I was having the biggest bet I’ve ever had in my life, or likely to until the day I die, it would be on “many, many,many, many more horses fall within a horse race over a fence, than a hurdle”.

And there will be many, many, many more horse related deaths, career ending injuries, season ending injuries to a horse getting a fence wrong and falling, than getting a hurdle wrong and still being able to run through it, like we all see regularly.

Not the crux of my opinion of earlier, but Lobos, I have to state - there will be an exceptional more amount of horse injuries over fences, than a hurdle.

[The Giant Bolster]

For what it is worth, I’d currently take the view that Constitution Hill is more likely to stay over hurdles and am backing accordingly.

Most of the arguments have been made. Fundamentally, Henderson has the option to keep him over hurdles to dominate the G1 hurdles knowing he has proven ability to win at this level well. He won about ?530k this season doing this. While many would argue that he has already established his outstanding ability, repeated Champion Hurdles would really establish him as one of the greatest (slightly different to the best in it being a sustained performance).

The alternative is that he increases the risk of injury by sending him over fences and (if the Gold Cup quotes are taken at face value) also with a view to him eventually being able to perform over 3m plus. These are two big risks. Should he then go the Jonbon route then he stands to win about ?330k. So ?200k less for more risk. Money may not mean a lot for Buckley but Henderson’s cut is probably important for his yard.

And the risk will surely be high in Henderson’s mind. If he sticks to hurdles, he has a good chance of cementing his reputation as a great champion hurdle trainer. If he goes over fences he risks having to manage any disasters and fall out. The upside is the Gold Cup dream but Henderson is surely realistic about the chances of that coming true.

Ultimately, it is also against his every instinct to disrupt a winning formula (trip or discipline). While he has obviously never had a horse like Constitution Hill, his novice chasers from 2012-2022 show this. Of 29 horses in the Arkle, Turners or BANC in this period, only seven had run in the Champion Hurdle or Stayers Hurdle the previous season. Of these, the best performance had been 5th. And none had won a G1 in the season before they went chasing. So all of these horses went chasing because the winning formula wasn’t working any more so taking the risk made sense.

Maybe they will school him but making that the deciding factor gives Henderson the real power in the decision. It would be easy for him to spot a concern in technique that gives him an excuse to stay over hurdles (could Buckley really question his judgement on this?) or we may find (since they will treat him with kid gloves) that the ground is never quite right for the schooling until too close to the start of the season leaving it too late…

If Constitution Hill goes chasing then either Henderson suddenly decides to become a romantic risk taker or Buckley overrules him; I’m personally not currently convinced that either is likely. I could definitely be wrong though; that’s part of the fun of antepost.

[Lobos]

Don't forget Nico in all this as well. He will have a big say in what happens.

Does Henderson have an Arkle contender other than Constitution Hill? He just loves that race.

[Istabraq]

Personally I’d love him to stay over hurdles, when he’s won three of the things he can be talked about in the same breath as Istabraq, Persian War and See You Them and if he was to win four then cement himself as probably the best of all time but bear in mind Istabraq had his fourth taken from him by Foot and Mouth.
But right now he’s won one…

[Lobos]

Yes Ista. That's a risk that they have to discuss too. Even if he does stay over Hurdles there's no guarantee that he'll win another CH let alone 2 or 3 more. Anything can happen.

Never mind, we have another 4 months of these pointless discussions

[Lobos]

Flip that, does he have another Champion Hurdle contender?

Nope. Does he prefer his Hurdlers or his Chasers ?

[Lobos]

Don't think he has a preference. It would seem odd if he did.

I'd say it was his 2m chasers but that's my preference!

I've just looked and after Constitution Hill in the betting for both the CH and Arkle the next Henderson horse quoted in both races is Luccia at 50/1 ! He really has nothing else for either race !!!

[Bollinger]

What’s your personal stance Lobos with Constitution Hill?

I mean, with what I’ve read of all of your thoughts since the day Cheltenham finished nearly 3 months ago, instinctively you either appear to -

a) want to wish beyond both yours and Con’ Hill’s wildest dreams a win in the Arkle

b) have placed the largest financial stake you might ever have placed in the hope ‘a)’ comes true

c) possibly both

[Lobos]

Neither. I just want him to go chasing . Preferably ending up in the Champion Chase next season which I haven't given up hope on. Then the Gold Cup the following year. I was lucky enough to see Dawn Run win her Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup in the flesh and would love to see another horse emulate what she did as it was a phenomenal experience. The punting side of it is secondary. If he were to go Supreme, Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and Gold Cup he could then be called the greatest of all time and I'm sure that would never ever be matched again.

[Bollinger]

Fair play Lobos. Full respect to your thoughts there.