2024 Champion Hurdle (Previously Constitution Hill thread)

[HesTheOne]

But yea certainly not underestimating El Fab would 100% want both on my team for CC.

[Always a Claimer]

I have nailed my colours to the mast and backed at 11/4 for the Arkle. I flip flopped between him staying hurdling and chasing, but I am personally pretty convinced they will go chasing. And I am also pretty convinced that Henderson will play it safe and go Arkle and not QMCC. Regardless of what people say about the depth of the races, it is a tried and tested route to keep novice chasers and in novice events - with very few exceptions. Once a year has gone by as a chaser, there is nothing to stop them stepping him up in trip and going for the Gold Cup in 2 years time - going Arkle doesn't necessarily mean a year of delay until the ultimate target.

[Quevega]

People grossly underestimating El Fabiolo in my view. Huge engine.

Neither Henderson nor Buckley has given the slightest hint that the QMCC will be a target next season. Buckley only mentioned the Gold Cup and Henderson name-checked the Arkle before a QMCC.

I think only Barry O'Connell would come out and state the Queen Mother as a target for 2024, for a horse yet to jump a fence under rules.
It would be jumping the gun a little and a little disrespectful towards the current crop of open 2 mile graded chasers, which you've hinted at.
Although El Fabiolo has only ever ran in novice company and the arguable form lines show Constitution Hill to be some way ahead IMO.

If and when they confirm he goes chasing they'll still stick to the race by race mantra and the arkle will be the original pencilled in plan, but if as expected he mullers everything by miles and runs in open company before Cheltenham in something like the Game Spirit then they will definitely look at both races and then decide.

IMO they will go Champion chase if he has looked as good as ever.
He's clearly on another level.

The caveat would be if Energumene gets whacked (without obvious excuses) by one of the second season chaser's (like El Fab), but that clash is unlikely before March.

[Benjy23]

I get he's not done it at Cheltenham but Henderson has previously ran his 2 mile novice chaser in open company pre festival. The Irish challenge at the festival being the obvious difference.

But I agree with Archie's interpretation of what was said. Arkle 2024, Champion Chase 2025 looks Henderson's opinion.

[Old Vic]

I just hope he stays sound.

FWIW I think the Arkle is least likely race for him next year. I backed him for the Gold Cup on Saturday after the festival but in hindsight think the Champion Chase is most likely target. If he can jump fences then they prove that over two miles and leave proving he can stay until 2025. Buckley is living the dream and I don't think an Arkle would cut it. I dont disagree that Hendo would prefer a more cautious route.

[Hurricane fly]

QMCC/Melling Chase / KG / GC

Would seem a sensible route

[Istabraq]

QMCC/Melling Chase / KG / GC

Would seem a sensible route

I reckon Eggs can find a price for that….

[Eggs]

I reckon Eggs can find a price for that….

….ha, ha. I’m sure I saw CC/GC @ 33-1 with PP not long ago but it had a haircut to 25-1.

[charlie]

I just hope he stays sound.

FWIW I think the Arkle is least likely race for him next year. I backed him for the Gold Cup on Saturday after the festival but in hindsight think the Champion Chase is most likely target. If he can jump fences then they prove that over two miles and leave proving he can stay until 2025. Buckley is living the dream and I don't think an Arkle would cut it. I dont disagree that Hendo would prefer a more cautious route.

How many novices have run in the QMCC let alone won it?

Nicky will be desperate to protect Constitution Hill for as long as humanly possibly because he's a once in a lifetime horse.

[Odin]

QMCC/Melling Chase / KG / GC

Would seem a sensible route

Similarly Arkle/Melling/KG/GC

What a horse if he could do either of the two combinations, let alone having already destroyed the 2m Hurdling division. I'm not convinced I(we?) realise how lucky I am to be dreaming these things about a horse...

[Quevega]

I think where Constitution Hill runs at the 2024 Festival is a tough call, and no one can really be too strong in their opinion as it definitely will depend on other factors we do not yet know, or are yet to see.
He has many options of course.

I think though, that his situation is unique in that he is going chasing as a Champion hurdle winner, with a super high rating.
So this cancels out, or at least dilutes all the other stats like novices sticking to novice races and trainer's past preferred routes etc. IMO.

As things stand IMO the CC looks most likely on balance, but if facts/circumstances change then I'll likely change my mind.
There is no doubt he'll be entered, and if he's good enough in his first 2 starts then the talk will start to sway towards the CC option for sure.
His NRNB price for the Champion Chase will be interesting.

[Winging The Last]

I'm going to predict his race route:

1 - Either one of these: Doncaster (Dec)/Kempton (Nov)/Warick (Nov) - Novice Chase or be adventurous and go for the Henry VIII straight away at Sandown in December
2 - Waywood Lad (Xmas)
3 - Game Spirit (Feb)
4 - Arkle
5 - Maghull/Melling at Aintree or Celebration at Sandown

6 - Tingle Creek
7 - Desert Orcid / Clarence House
8 - Champion Chase
9 - Melling

10 - Tingle Creek
11 - King George
12 - Gold Cup

[Old Vic]

I'm going to predict his race route:

1 - Either one of these: Doncaster (Dec)/Kempton (Nov)/Warick (Nov) - Novice Chase or be adventurous and go for the Henry VIII straight away at Sandown in December
2 - Waywood Lad (Xmas)
3 - Game Spirit (Feb)
4 - Arkle
5 - Maghull/Melling at Aintree or Celebration at Sandown

6 - Tingle Creek
7 - Desert Orcid / Clarence House
8 - Champion Chase
9 - Melling

10 - Tingle Creek
11 - King George
12 - Gold Cup

I think that looks very much like the route Nicky would take if left to his own devices. I think Michael Buckley likes an Ascot runner so could see Noel Novices / Clarence House getting a go in year 1 and maybe Ascot Chase in Year 2.

[Istabraq]

I'm going to predict his race route:

1 - Either one of these: Doncaster (Dec)/Kempton (Nov)/Warick (Nov) - Novice Chase or be adventurous and go for the Henry VIII straight away at Sandown in December
2 - Waywood Lad (Xmas)
3 - Game Spirit (Feb)
4 - Arkle
5 - Maghull/Melling at Aintree or Celebration at Sandown

6 - Tingle Creek
7 - Desert Orcid / Clarence House
8 - Champion Chase
9 - Melling

10 - Tingle Creek
11 - King George
12 - Gold Cup

Couple of things:

Why would Hendo send the horse to open company then come back to novice company ?
Surely once he steps out of novice company he’s shooting for the stars ?
And the proximity of Tingle Creek and Christmas might sway his thinking here, he has wrapped many of his top horses in cotton wool over the years (particularly in recent years), 2m in early Dec and 3m over Christmas might not sit right in his thinking…

[Hurricane fly]

Couple of things:

Why would Hendo send the horse to open company then come back to novice company ?

He did it with Altior to be fair