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Not true though is it ?
If the supreme winner goes novice chasing then your going to be very close to winning again the following year.
If they state they are staying hurdling like most do, then you’d obviously be mad to back them for the arkle.
So you’re correct to not auto back especially prior or immediately after the supreme- but Barry kind of said Marine wins the arkle back in February.
IMO - if you’ve proven to be the supreme novice hurdler then you’re in the box seat to be the following season’s novice chaser.
But time will tell - loads of stuff can and will happen.
Marines price now is too short for sure.
So if you’re not on at bigger it makes perfect sense to look elsewhere at the moment.
Yes, good idea to start with the Arkle.
But the Supreme Winner doesn’t appeal at those antepost prices, so easy to skip him for now.
I’m keeping an open mind on who might win.
Mister Policeman Ive picked some time ago, and Facile Vega too.
So I’ve got some Arkle form, represented, for now.
Not true though is it ?
If the supreme winner goes novice chasing then your going to be very close to winning again the following year.
If they state they are staying hurdling like most do, then you’d obviously be mad to back them for the arkle.
So you’re correct to not auto back especially prior or immediately after the supreme- but Barry kind of said Marine wins the arkle back in February.
IMO - if you’ve proven to be the supreme novice hurdler then you’re in the box seat to be the following season’s novice chaser.
But time will tell - loads of stuff can and will happen.
Marines price now is too short for sure.
So if you’re not on at bigger it makes perfect sense to look elsewhere at the moment.
3 wins in 50+ years was the main point, which is absolutely true.
No qualification required on whether they stayed hurdling ,went chasing, didn’t target the Arkle, or made it to the race.
as we are really talking antepost betting not post declarations/betting on the day
…..sure, they have a better chance to win the Arkle if they make the race (true of any horse in any race)
…… and maybe Marine Nationale becomes a “golden era” horse and wins the Arkle.
He is the worthy pre-season Arkle Fav.
maybe he is going to be as good a chaser as the only three to double up - Douvan, Altior or Shishkin.
He is not far behind them on novice hurdles RPRs. (Douvan 160, Shishkin 161, Altior 166, Marine Nationale 158)
……..and I am wondering why this has turned up in the Constitution Hill thread.
Maybe it’s in honour of him as a Supreme winner, who broke an even bigger stat than
3 Supreme-Arkle winners in 50 years,
when he did the Supreme-Champion Hurdle double and the first one to do it since Bula in 1970-71
Rather odd to think, that the two very obvious races for a Supreme winner, for the next season are
* Champion Hurdle - if staying over hurdles
* Arkle Chase - if going novice chasing
Yet, in 50 years, only 4 have won either of those two races, 12 months later.
Good that this has been done by those 4 in the last decade though (but not for 40 years prior - what happened to them all)
Last edited by Saxon Warrior; 22 September 2023, 12:04 AM.
I've been keeping records of all runners for last seven years which helps put stats from winners in context against the rest of the field.
Obviously Marine Nationale is rated 158 and Facile Vega at 155 over hurdles. In the last seven years, we've only had five Arkle runners rated so highly. Three won (Altior, Shishkin, Footpad) and two placed (Brain Power and Petit Mouchoir who both lost to Footpad). So we've not had any horses rated so highly over hurdles in the last seven years beaten by lower rated horses.
Of course what the stats do not show is how many times horses rated that highly started a campaign over fences but then did not make the Arkle through not taking to them or injury.
I'm not seeing much at the moment beyond them in terms of ratings that might threaten either. Mister Policeman is the main one for me.
The wildcard which sometimes I underestimate can be horses switching from open company over hurdles. Of these Zanahiyr (though I think he will over further), Knappers Hill and Quixilos (if he returns healthy) are all I'm tracking but not backing in this category.
But - basically - I think if Marine Nationale or Facile Vega make it to the race in March then they will be extremely hard to beat and go off considerably shorter.
I've been keeping records of all runners for last seven years which helps put stats from winners in context against the rest of the field.
Obviously Marine Nationale is rated 158 and Facile Vega at 155 over hurdles. In the last seven years, we've only had five Arkle runners rated so highly. Three won (Altior, Shishkin, Footpad) and two placed (Brain Power and Petit Mouchoir who both lost to Footpad). So we've not had any horses rated so highly over hurdles in the last seven years beaten by lower rated horses.
Of course what the stats do not show is how many times horses rated that highly started a campaign over fences but then did not make the Arkle through not taking to them or injury.
I'm not seeing much at the moment beyond them in terms of ratings that might threaten either. Mister Policeman is the main one for me.
The wildcard which sometimes I underestimate can be horses switching from open company over hurdles. Of these Zanahiyr (though I think he will over further), Knappers Hill and Quixilos (if he returns healthy) are all I'm tracking but not backing in this category.
But - basically - I think if Marine Nationale or Facile Vega make it to the race in March then they will be extremely hard to beat and go off considerably shorter.
The stats for novice hurdles champions that go novice chasing the next season are excellent.
The 50 year stat is a misnomer cos 80+% of supreme winners stay over hurdles. There’s is grade 1s prize money and valuable 2m+ handicaps to go for the next year.
Look at the Ballymore and Bartlett also.
Its even more prevalent in the last 15 years or so also because the leading trainers often have other horses for the championship races. And the increased distance opportunities.
The outliers are usually thinner when you go from novice company hurdles to novice company chasers So it’s far easier to remain top of the class of your peers.
Like I said before- of the 7 to go chasing from winning supreme in last 21 years or more, the form at the next festival is 3412111. And arguably very close to 5/7 winning the arkle at odds on.
Prior to this period you’d have had staying type’s winning supremes and a mixed bag, due to the novice hurdles options being smaller
Last edited by Quevega; 22 September 2023, 08:14 AM.
One thing I would add is that the Supreme used to be won by a different type of horse that were out-and-out hurdlers without the scope for chasing. You also got plenty off the flat too back in the day. Nowadays it's proper NH pedigrees and future chasers winning the Supreme most years.
I've been keeping records of all runners for last seven years which helps put stats from winners in context against the rest of the field.
Obviously Marine Nationale is rated 158 and Facile Vega at 155 over hurdles. In the last seven years, we've only had five Arkle runners rated so highly. Three won (Altior, Shishkin, Footpad) and two placed (Brain Power and Petit Mouchoir who both lost to Footpad). So we've not had any horses rated so highly over hurdles in the last seven years beaten by lower rated horses.
Of course what the stats do not show is how many times horses rated that highly started a campaign over fences but then did not make the Arkle through not taking to them or injury.
I'm not seeing much at the moment beyond them in terms of ratings that might threaten either. Mister Policeman is the main one for me.
The wildcard which sometimes I underestimate can be horses switching from open company over hurdles. Of these Zanahiyr (though I think he will over further), Knappers Hill and Quixilos (if he returns healthy) are all I'm tracking but not backing in this category.
But - basically - I think if Marine Nationale or Facile Vega make it to the race in March then they will be extremely hard to beat and go off considerably shorter.
Great stats. As you say they don't include for an injury (and can't) but they seem to justify favouritism. It doesn't affect your stat, but Facile Vega also scored 158 RPR (at Punchestown) so you can't split them on ratings ahead of the new season!
Nicholls has suggested Knappers Hill will start over 2m4f so he's likely headed elsewhere you'd think. The Nicholls horse that interests me is Rubaud. Off 141, I think the plan is to take in a handicap hurdle FTO before embarking on a novice chase career over 2m. But with an RPR of 144 he'd have a stone to make up on the two at the head of the market!
Please don't anyone mention Arkle winners/runners going onto win the following years Gold Cup or we will get back onto Constitution Hill again.................
With so much (great) discussion about the Arkle, Supreme winners and ratings I just thought I'd remind FJs that Mister Policeman recorded an RPR of 150 on his debut for Mullins, which was his 3rd start. Saxon Warrior puts in some incredible work to make it easy for idiots like me to steal, his summary of what it takes to win a standard Supreme is a pre race RPR of 150, this suggests that had Mister Policeman been in Mullins hands a little earlier he could easily have been a major player and if he had been somewhere close to Marine National and Facile Vega, which the ratings given suggest he would have been entitled to do, then right now he would be somewhere sub 10/1 for the Arkle, and had he won the race he would surely be 3/1 fav, or where Marine Nationale currently is.
We all know form over timber doesn't always translate to fences but Mister Policeman has fallen conveniently under the radar because he hasn't been seen/shown his hand, and for that we should be grateful because he is remarkably still 20/1 for those with 365 accs.
The Supreme 1-2 are priced on their Supreme runs, which is normal, I can't help thinking that it will take one canter round some gaff track beating pigs by a furlong and a few post race comments for Mister Policeman's price to bomb.
I can only press at 16/1....
With so much (great) discussion about the Arkle, Supreme winners and ratings I just thought I'd remind FJs that Mister Policeman recorded an RPR of 150 on his debut for Mullins, which was his 3rd start. Saxon Warrior puts in some incredible work to make it easy for idiots like me to steal, his summary of what it takes to win a standard Supreme is a pre race RPR of 150, this suggests that had Mister Policeman been in Mullins hands a little earlier he could easily have been a major player and if he had been somewhere close to Marine National and Facile Vega, which the ratings given suggest he would have been entitled to do, then right now he would be somewhere sub 10/1 for the Arkle, and had he won the race he would surely be 3/1 fav, or where Marine Nationale currently is.
We all know form over timber doesn't always translate to fences but Mister Policeman has fallen conveniently under the radar because he hasn't been seen/shown his hand, and for that we should be grateful because he is remarkably still 20/1 for those with 365 accs.
The Supreme 1-2 are priced on their Supreme runs, which is normal, I can't help thinking that it will take one canter round some gaff track beating pigs by a furlong and a few post race comments for Mister Policeman's price to bomb.
I can only press at 16/1....
Completely agree. For me this is a market where only Marine Nationale, Facile Vega and Mister Policeman appeal at the moment. And Mister Policeman has the best price in my mind though I still think Facile Vega at 5s is not terrible (though I think there is a a Turners risk).
Personally I don't feel the need to search for left field horses too hard since I think the winner is likely to be one of them. I'll track others as they make debuts but I feel I'd be wasting points on anything else at this stage.
With so much (great) discussion about the Arkle, Supreme winners and ratings I just thought I'd remind FJs that Mister Policeman recorded an RPR of 150 on his debut for Mullins, which was his 3rd start. Saxon Warrior puts in some incredible work to make it easy for idiots like me to steal, his summary of what it takes to win a standard Supreme is a pre race RPR of 150, this suggests that had Mister Policeman been in Mullins hands a little earlier he could easily have been a major player and if he had been somewhere close to Marine National and Facile Vega, which the ratings given suggest he would have been entitled to do, then right now he would be somewhere sub 10/1 for the Arkle, and had he won the race he would surely be 3/1 fav, or where Marine Nationale currently is.
We all know form over timber doesn't always translate to fences but Mister Policeman has fallen conveniently under the radar because he hasn't been seen/shown his hand, and for that we should be grateful because he is remarkably still 20/1 for those with 365 accs.
The Supreme 1-2 are priced on their Supreme runs, which is normal, I can't help thinking that it will take one canter round some gaff track beating pigs by a furlong and a few post race comments for Mister Policeman's price to bomb.
I can only press at 16/1....
I think Marine Nationale lined up in the Supreme with a 147 RPR, and Facile Vega a little higher than that.
So yes you're right, if Mister Policeman had been able to run in Novices, with a 150 RPR pre-Supreme, he'd could easily have been involved at the end of it. (he won his French Hurdle race before the end of the 2021/22 season so he wasn't eligible for the Supreme or Novice Hurdles)
May be why Willie gave him almost the whole season off.
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