2024 Champion Hurdle (Previously Constitution Hill thread)

[Lobos]

Let’s see how close I came. Pretty bang on

Still time for 1/4 in September Bollinger. Let's see how close I come

[Quevega]

Interesting to hear Nico saying stamina was likely to be a major issue.

Always thought they said he’d stay 4 miles no problem..

He’d definitely not stay with Nico riding
He looks a passenger on him to me.

[Bollinger]

You make some valid and astute comments at times Bollinger but self praise and the need to quote your own comments is never going to be a behavior I respect.
No forum rules against it of course, just a personal observation...

Totally agree with your statement here Ista, and very respectfully so. But when you’re reading (and I thoroughly, thoroughly appreciate opinions differ from one individual to the next on ‘value’) about how some people might think a horses price will go, and I’m reasonably confident of how a bookmaker will react (they use algorithms as opposed to ‘heart & emotion’), I felt in this instance to be a touch self praising.

Agreed with you totally. And fair point for noting my comment.

[Bollinger]

I’d like to end this ‘convo’ by diversifying a touch and suggesting, in my opinion, that the 5/1 on Facile Vega for the Arkle is very good value at this stage, and I’m surprised SKYBet have only dropped him a point regarding this morning’s news.

I’ve watched the Supreme’s last 3 furlongs back enough times to suggest both he and Marine Nationale were, and are, unequivocally the best two horses in the race. They were then, and they are now.

What I still haven’t fathomed is the differential in price between both horses for next year’s Arkle, 2/1 v 5/1. Facile Vega took one hell of a hit over that last hurdle, almost lost his trailing leg ‘post jump’, and the momentum was severe enough to lose at least a second of time, which really would have put both horses within a length of each other at the line in the Supreme. I don’t necessarily feel it’s clear to suggest Marine Nationale is better than Facile Vega, and vice versa. Again, I urge punters to really look at that last hurdle misdemeanour of Facile’s in the Supreme - he pings that well and it’s possible, and I’m only suggesting possible, that the current 2/1 & 5/1 for both horses for next year’s Arkle could easily be switched.

[FinalFurlong91]

It's very possible facile vega wasn't at his best in the Supreme

Likely because of the issues he had at the DRF

His prep cant have been close to ideal

Certainly not out of the question that he's a better horse than marine nationale

[Black Dog]

3/1 Marine Nationale any race is still available with Sky (2/1 for the Arkle)

[Quevega]

I think the facile vega vs marine price comments from Boll and FF are reasonable.
But I’d counter that with the fact to my eye Marine Nationale looked like he was only just getting going after the last. It was like he only had to be woken up.
Anyone who is getting too jiggy about Facile would do well to watch the race and watch marine only.

[ComplyOrDie]

I think the facile vega vs marine price comments from Boll and FF are reasonable.
But I’d counter that with the fact to my eye Marine Nationale looked like he was only just getting going after the last. It was like he only had to be woken up.
Anyone who is getting too jiggy about Facile would do well to watch the race and watch marine only.

I completely agree with this. Marine Nationale was 'going away' at the finish for me, suggesting more to come than what Facile Vega offered up.

[Fatcatshat]

For what it’s worth, this would be my take on it too, I thought he almost kicked into 5 gear once he got past FV

I completely agree with this. Marine Nationale was 'going away' at the finish for me, suggesting more to come than what Facile Vega offered up.

[SeanRock]

I think the facile vega vs marine price comments from Boll and FF are reasonable.
But I’d counter that with the fact to my eye Marine Nationale looked like he was only just getting going after the last. It was like he only had to be woken up.
Anyone who is getting too jiggy about Facile would do well to watch the race and watch marine only.

Facile Vega lost his hind legs & a lot of momentum when landing after the last hurdle though didn’t he. I’m not saying Marine National wouldn’t have passed him regardless (I think he would have), but it would have been a lot tighter.

[Lobos]

Facile Vega lost his hind legs & a lot of momentum when landing after the last hurdle though didn’t he. I’m not saying Marine National wouldn’t have passed him regardless (I think he would have), but it would have been a lot tighter.

I've watched it back again just now and Marine Nationale had him covered whatever. He won very comfortable and was very strong at the line and could have picked him off earlier and win further had he wished. Fences of course could bring a different story/result.

[SeanRock]

I've watched it back again just now and Marine Nationale had him covered whatever. He won very comfortable and was very strong at the line and could have picked him off earlier and win further had he wished. Fences of course could bring a different story/result.

Yeah I think he’d have nabbed him alright but the slip definitely exaggerated the winning distance. I’m happy to back FV to turn the tables over fences anyway.

[Ice]

I'd say marine nationale would have won anyway, would have been closer barring the mistake but marine won quite comfortably in the end and I'd personally say he was the slightly better horse, fences could change that and if facile vega jumps a fence better then the result could easily be different. One mistake could make all the difference.

[Kevloaf]

Think you are the only one on here Kev that has followed their conviction in with a lumpy bet that he'll be going Champion Hurdle. Maybe you do carry your balls around in a wheelbarrow

Space hoppers

[Lobos]

Space hoppers

Fair play to you mate.

My pockets are restricted these days so couldn't back him at the prices

He'll walk it though.