2024 Champion Hurdle (Previously Constitution Hill thread)

[Black Dog]

Marine Nationale still 3/1 Skybet to win any race.

[Ice]

Marine Nationale still 3/1 Skybet to win any race.

I've had me a little top up on that, surely will get a haircut soon.

[Lobos]

Constitution Hill 1/2 with Unibet today, from 8/13, decision made? I'd say so.

If one really thought that one would smash that to bits surely?? He'd be 1/5 on the day at best.

[ComplyOrDie]

If one really thought that one would smash that to bits surely?? He'd be 1/5 on the day at best.

I've been adding him to multiples, plus trying to get him rolled up, but unlike some I do not fancy chucking 20 or 30+ points down on something odds on this far out from the festival, just a personal choice

[Istabraq]

If one really thought that one would smash that to bits surely?? He'd be 1/5 on the day at best.

Machine says 1.75 for pennies, put up small orders and you might get matched for a decent amount…

[Lobos]

Machine says 1.75 for pennies, put up small orders and you might get matched for a decent amount…

Won't be wasting any more ammo on him personally. Just a watch for me now if he runs in the Champion Hurdle again.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I've been adding him to multiples, plus trying to get him rolled up, but unlike some I do not fancy chucking 20 or 30+ points down on something odds on this far out from the festival, just a personal choice

And a very wise choice in my opinion.
Take Odds on in August for a race in March?
plenty else to look at right now.

[charlie]

And a very wise choice in my opinion.
Take Odds on in August for a race in March?
plenty else to look at right now.

I think many (especially the book builders) take the view he'll be 1/8 or something similar on the day, so it makes more sense to pump 4/5 and build a book around him than wait for him to be confirmed hurdling where I imagine he'd go 1/3, or something similar. I'd far rather roll him up myself but each to their own.

[Lobos]

Think he's still 2/5 TWAR with Sky which can be added to multiples with others

[charlie]

Think he's still 2/5 TWAR with Sky which can be added to multiples with others

I draw the fucking line at that

If I built a book I'd defo lump 25pts at 4/5. If he stays hurdling then you're laughing and if he doesn't or gets injured then you start from -25 points down.

Kevloaf I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on this as I know you've done that exact bet.

How do you approach it? Lets say Constitution Hill was even money (for the sake of maths), would you bet 25pts to make him a 25pt winner, then back IEP and State Man now whilst CH props up the market as cover bets in the incidence of target switch or injury?

Also, do you find it easier building a book in a market with an odds on favourite this early?

Maybe a conversation for another thread but keen to hear thoughts.

[Bollinger]

I thought 6/4 back in late April was an exceptional price even then.

I haven’t offered an opinion on this subject yet, but I was absolutely convinced (and have laid down accordingly) 3 months ago he’d stay on the ‘multiple champion hurdle route’.

He could still go chasing of course, but I very much felt hurdling was going to be the only way Henderson thought. He simply doesn’t have the multitude of bullets to fire like Mullins does, and therefore has to limit his risks for success. Mullins is like Manchester City - he’s got 2 good horses for every position, and can risk making decisions that might not work out knowing his 2nd and maybe 3rd string aren’t too far behind, and he might take a risk with what he considers his ‘gun’ horse. Hendo simply does not have this luxury, and therefore it’s why he always appears to play the safe game.

The word, and the money it appears, seems to suggest he’ll stay hurdling. Personally, and I’ve had a very big punt a few months out, at odds against, I always thought the Champ Hurdle route was very much the likeliest.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I think many (especially the book builders) take the view he'll be 1/8 or something similar on the day, so it makes more sense to pump 4/5 and build a book around him than wait for him to be confirmed hurdling where I imagine he'd go 1/3, or something similar. I'd far rather roll him up myself but each to their own.

Yeah, fair enough I guess .
Not really a book builder myself, and I’m pretty strict as to what sort of price I’m willing to take ante post without nrnb.
Absolutely each to their own as you say.

[Istabraq]

For what it;s worth, one or two bookmakers go NRNB on championship races in early in the New Year.
To me there would be nothing wrong including CH at 2/5 for a 40% price push on everything else because let's face it, he is pretty much unbeatable, and if he doesn't win it would likely be that he was injured or took in a different race...

[Kevloaf]

I thought 6/4 back in late April was an exceptional price even then.

I haven’t offered an opinion on this subject yet, but I was absolutely convinced (and have laid down accordingly) 3 months ago he’d stay on the ‘multiple champion hurdle route’.

I'm absolutely convinced that this is some after timing again on a specials market

You should set up a patreon for people and show people how to keep accounts open on these kinds of markets

[Eggs]

….looks like bits of Oddschecker blue for Arkle.