2024 Champion Hurdle (Previously Constitution Hill thread)

[callhimgamblor]

....He's a brilliant racehorse who I hope to see in the flesh before he retires (ideally over fences so State Man/Marine can win the CHurdle....

I think state man stays Champion Hurdle regardless of where CH goes but I am interested in MN too.

My gut feeling is that CH stays to dominate champ hurdles for a while more yet so is the feeling around here that MN would bail for the Arkle in that case?

And if MN is going chasing would that not get the same scrutiny as CH with regards to schooling before hols etc? I think there is going to be a super interesting blinking game at the start of next season. Fake entries, super late entries etc. Fun and games.

Why is IEP to the Turners in doubt now?

[Saxon Warrior]

I think state man stays Champion Hurdle regardless of where CH goes but I am interested in MN too.

My gut feeling is that CH stays to dominate champ hurdles for a while more yet so is the feeling around here that MN would bail for the Arkle in that case?

And if MN is going chasing would that not get the same scrutiny as CH with regards to schooling before hols etc? I think there is going to be a super interesting blinking game at the start of next season. Fake entries, super late entries etc. Fun and games.

Why is IEP to the Turners in doubt now?

Is it in doubt?

Who are his Arkle and Turners horses next March, if theyre not Facile Vega and IEP?

Has he got two better than those?

Not heard anything since Willies, post-race Punchestown quotes, where he was disappointed that IEP didnt run like Frankel, and needed scrubbing along at the entrance to the straight in a 2M4F race to get his mind on the job of winning

He looked to be rather shook by that, and any thought of taking on Con.Hill seemed to ebb away somewhat at that time.

To be fair hes got a 5-time Grade 1 winning, Champion Hurdle runner up, in his corner for another go next year.

Thats probably good enough for his no1 shot at the race.

I would think we won't here anything on this subject until October.

Doesn't stop us talking about it, but I would be mildly surprised if anyone came on here with definitive knowledge on the subject, ahead of the Stable Tour circuit starts up.

Unless we have any with WPM inside info to share during the summer.

Our own betting decisions (if weve made any) would probably colour our own individual views - in the meantime.

[callhimgamblor]

....... and Impaire can win the Turners - which apparently also might not happen now )

Was just this comment from Odin. Question was for him really....

[Lobos]

Agree completely Sax. Not sure why I haven't done the Vega/Arkle and IEP/Turners double yet. Probably got something to do with Constipation Hill

[Ice]

Is it in doubt?

Who are his Arkle and Turners horses next March, if theyre not Facile Vega and IEP?

Has he got two better than those?

Not heard anything since Willies, post-race Punchestown quotes, where he was disappointed that IEP didnt run like Frankel, and needed scrubbing along at the entrance to the straight in a 2M4F race to get his mind on the job of winning

He looked to be rather shook by that, and any thought of taking on Con.Hill seemed to ebb away somewhat at that time.

To be fair hes got a 5-time Grade 1 winning, Champion Hurdle runner up, in his corner for another go next year.

Thats probably good enough for his no1 shot at the race.

I would think we won't here anything on this subject until October.

Doesn't stop us talking about it, but I would be mildly surprised if anyone came on here with definitive knowledge on the subject, ahead of the Stable Tour circuit starts up.

Unless we have any with WPM inside info to share during the summer.

Our own betting decisions (if weve made any) would probably colour our own individual views - in the meantime.

Totally agree, in my mind at least, at the moment state man will be taking on Constitution Hill in the champion hurdle, vega will be in the arkle against marine nationale and impaire et passe will be in the Turners. I could well be way off so won't be going overboard but maybe a couple of small doubles/trebles on this.

[Istabraq]

Totally agree, in my mind at least, at the moment state man will be taking on Constitution Hill in the champion hurdle, vega will be in the arkle against marine nationale and impaire et passe will be in the Turners. I could well be way off so won't be going overboard but maybe a couple of small doubles/trebles on this.

Unless Mullins thinks Vega has a ton of improvement that can be found over fences I’m not sure he’ll be in a rush to see Marine National again.
I’ve said it before but that turn of foot after the last in his Supreme was seriously impressive, he could be a serious horse and I wouldn’t be surprised if, over the water, he isn’t talked about in the same way people talk about C Hill here…

[Ice]

Unless Mullins thinks Vega has a ton of improvement that can be found over fences I’m not sure he’ll be in a rush to see Marine National again.
I’ve said it before but that turn of foot after the last in his Supreme was seriously impressive, he could be a serious horse and I wouldn’t be surprised if, over the water, he isn’t talked about in the same way people talk about C Hill here…

Don't put doubt in my mind, it's took me three months to come to that conclusion ! it was some performance by marine nationale, too be fair, only a five year old so should be plenty of improvement to come as well. A lot of my thinking was based on barry connell saying mn would be going for the arkle though obviously things can change.

[Lobos]

I'm not sure Barry's said that has he ? Agree that if The Hill stays Hurdling then they'll consider sending him chasing but it's not a given. As Ista says, MN looks a serious hurdler and put Vega away Very easily. He may well be the one to put it up to CH.

[HesTheOne]

I'm not sure Barry's said that has he ? Agree that if The Hill stays Hurdling then they'll consider sending him chasing but it's not a given. As Ista says, MN looks a serious hurdler and put Vega away Very easily. He may well be the one to put it up to CH.

He was fairly direct about Arkle in post race interview with racing TV

“MN could win a grade1 on the flat.. he’ll be back here next year for the Arkle., if CH wasn’t around you’d be thinking about champion hurdle.. unless he (ch) keels over he’ll be here for the Arkle”

https://twitter.com/racingtv/status/1635638220892299267?s=46&t=U7ooFks0IWSHzi2xb2kZOA

[callhimgamblor]

Good enough for me. MN only 4/1 for the Arkle but likely far shorter once CH removed. One for the returning Champs Yankee perhaps....

[Lobos]

Good enough for me. MN only 4/1 for the Arkle but likely far shorter once CH removed. One for the returning Champs Yankee perhaps....

You can still get 3/1 TWAR which is the way to go with him single wise as he looks to only have two options.

[Lobos]

He was fairly direct about Arkle in post race interview with racing TV

“MN could win a grade1 on the flat.. he’ll be back here next year for the Arkle., if CH wasn’t around you’d be thinking about champion hurdle.. unless he (ch) keels over he’ll be here for the Arkle”

https://twitter.com/racingtv/status/...IWSHzi2xb2kZOA

So until we know where C Hill goes, it's still one of two races for Marine......Arkle or Champion Hurdle.

[callhimgamblor]

https://www.racingpost.com/news/brit...-anIc19Y57QBJ/ is an interesting read from a couple of weeks back.

Particularly "Jonbon has gone through his novice chase stage, so there's an opportunity for a top-class novice chaser at Seven Barrows if we want one, but have I got another Champion Hurdle horse? Possibly not."

Its gioing to be a fun few months of speculation. :-)

[Odin]

I think state man stays Champion Hurdle regardless of where CH goes but I am interested in MN too.

My gut feeling is that CH stays to dominate champ hurdles for a while more yet so is the feeling around here that MN would bail for the Arkle in that case?

And if MN is going chasing would that not get the same scrutiny as CH with regards to schooling before hols etc? I think there is going to be a super interesting blinking game at the start of next season. Fake entries, super late entries etc. Fun and games.

Why is IEP to the Turners in doubt now?

Just to clarify on my side.

I think marine avoids CH and wins the race he goes for. I've gambled early on CH going arkle so got marine covered for CHurdle early. I don't currently have marine for arkle but that would change if navassa island wins the Albany at royal Ascot. I've also started to cover and have most combinations of CH (CHurdle), MN/FV (arkle) and IEP (Turners) covered.

My concern around IEP is based on billymag comments on here (that CHurdle was plan pre-ballymore). I've long thought he's turners bound and he's my biggest individual and multiple winner - 7/1 for it could prove to have been a gift - but given my investment, I'm likely to be jittery. It would be a stupid decision not to go turners if CH stays hurdling imo, like it would be for MN not going arkle in same situation.

I now think most likely combinations are:

CHurdle: CH/State Man Arkle: MN/Fv
Turners: IEP

But like others, I agree that we just need to see what happens now

[Istabraq]

You can still get 3/1 TWAR which is the way to go with him single wise as he looks to only have two options.

I know you're keen on the any race markets and if I had the option maybe I'd have more interest, but the issue with MN is that 3/1 is already a short price, don't get me wrong 5/1 for an Arkle isn't massive value in June but if (and I know this is the crux of the entire discussion) Constitution Hill stays over timber Marine Nationale's Arkle price is suddenly 9/4 before he jumps a fence, I think the 5/1 now has to be the play.
If both were to stay hurdling what's the race day prices ? C Hill 1/4 MN 3/1 with State Man next ?
All dependent on form leading up to March of course, but he's either 3/1 on the day for the Champion Hurdle or a penalty kick price for the Arkle, for punting purposes this far out the 5/1 Arkle has to be the play doesn't it ?