Where will they go ?

[gwaaan]

Rock on Ruby

sorry just seen you did put the season after

my bad

[AaronLad]

Nicky Henderson has won 9 champion hurdles. Incredible really, a training career of 45 years, that would work out at 1 every 5 years.
But 9, bit of an anti climatic number really, and with willie mullins currently sat on 4, it's a number he might fear could be surpassed.
He was also the trainer of see you then, 1 of 5 horses to have currently won the champion hurdle on 3 occasions.

In constitution hill he has a horse, if he stays hurdling, who has the potential to win him a 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th champion hurdle.
If he goes chasing, yes he can win an arkle next season, maybe a qmcc, but a gold cup in 2 years? Not an easy task with galopin around who could quite possibly be going for his 3rd gold cup by then, not a chance imo that henderson fancies that route.

champion hurdle winners to try chasing in their careers this century - Faugheen, chase debut aged 11, a chase campaign that came at the end of a glittering career, ran a couple of cracking races he might not have found the opportunities for over hurdles in open company at his age.
Rock on ruby, chase debut aged 8, the season after finishing runner up to hurricane fly in the champion hurdle, well beaten in the arkle.
Hors la loi iii, chase debut aged 10 after over 2 years off the track and joining paul nicholls, 6th in the novice handicap chase at the festival that season.
None of these were the current champion hurdler when they went chasing, and only faugheen had any real success.

I know constitution hill is young and at his peak, But nicky henderson isn't, and i think the draw of champion hurdle greatness for both horse and trainer will be too much to resist once all the risks are considered .

[Carnage at Taunton]

Kevloaf Bollinger

Conversation's moved on so just acknowledging your responses. It boils down to a matter of preference for each individual.

I just want to see him perform as the horse with seen this year (or even better!) over the next few years - whether that happens with him being the best Champion Hurdler of all time, the best 2miler of all time (CH and CC) or the best multi-distance of all time (CH and GC with anything in between), it doesn't bother me. I just want to really enjoy that wow factor so while I can see the opportunity argument and think it's a fair point - particularly with respect to Buckley's public comments - it doesn't really bother me. I just want to see him become or have the best chance of becoming the GOAT in terms of performances, distance/code doesn't matter to me

Yep, that’s pretty much my thoughts as well.
If I really had to make a preference I would hope he stays hurdling and racks up multiple Champion Hurdles.

Another way of looking at it……

The Race itself has been struggling in recent years with the calibre of horses winning the race, and now we have a 180 plus horse who is a delight to watch over a hurdle.
Thats the type of horse that should be winning this race imo,or at least mid to high 170’s.

Whilst it’s exciting to think what CH could achieve for the record books with chasing, I can also get excited at the sort of performances he could put up over hurdles.
I mean…. has he actually reached his peak yet??!!!

[Lobos]

DJ has written in the Racing Post today that Paddies have priced for him on where Constitution Hill will start next season

Theyre putting the price up at 9am tomorrow.


Constitution Hill
First run in 23/24 season

Chasing 8/11
Hurdles Evens

Was this just a very, very clever ploy from PP? For those punters who believe he will stay over hurdles there's only one race he can go for and he certainly wouldn't be starting out over fences . Why would any of those punters back him to win the Champion Hurdle again in March when they can have the same price on him just to start in a hurdle race on his first start next season??!!
Could it be that PP believe he'll be going chasing and have dangled this enormous carrot so that they can balance their books somewhat to cover the overwhelming amount of bets they've taken on him to win one of the chases??

Brilliant bit of promotion IMO and now job done as punters have taken the bait.

[Bollinger]

I do think if you’re tempted to take the 4/7 PP’s are now offering Con’ Hill on his first obstacle being a hurdle and not a fence next season, as a punter you’d have to be smart enough to leave that alone and take the 5/4 on him winning the Champ Hurdle a few months later.

More than double the price.

[HesTheOne]

Nicky Henderson has won 9 champion hurdles. Incredible really, a training career of 45 years, that would work out at 1 every 5 years.
But 9, bit of an anti climatic number really, and with willie mullins currently sat on 4, it's a number he might fear could be surpassed.
He was also the trainer of see you then, 1 of 5 horses to have currently won the champion hurdle on 3 occasions.

In constitution hill he has a horse, if he stays hurdling, who has the potential to win him a 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th champion hurdle.
If he goes chasing, yes he can win an arkle next season, maybe a qmcc, but a gold cup in 2 years? Not an easy task with galopin around who could quite possibly be going for his 3rd gold cup by then, not a chance imo that henderson fancies that route.

champion hurdle winners to try chasing in their careers this century - Faugheen, chase debut aged 11, a chase campaign that came at the end of a glittering career, ran a couple of cracking races he might not have found the opportunities for over hurdles in open company at his age.
Rock on ruby, chase debut aged 8, the season after finishing runner up to hurricane fly in the champion hurdle, well beaten in the arkle.
Hors la loi iii, chase debut aged 10 after over 2 years off the track and joining paul nicholls, 6th in the novice handicap chase at the festival that season.
None of these were the current champion hurdler when they went chasing, and only faugheen had any real success.

I know constitution hill is young and at his peak, But nicky henderson isn't, and i think the draw of champion hurdle greatness for both horse and trainer will be too much to resist once all the risks are considered.

I think you’ve said it here yourself all those mentioned who went chasing were past there peak.. so if he is to do it the time is now really?

9 champion hurdler wins being anticlimactic is a mad statement really.. it’s not as if this is Nickys last year of being a trainer and the only chance to round up to 10 so it’s no more an anticlimactic number

He’s once in a generational horse so why should they conform to the normal?

If your argument is that Nickys is old and so won’t take the risk I just can’t see it. I’d be more under the impression that if they don’t try to push the ceiling it’ll be a game of what’s ifs and what could have been

He might have a climaxing rounded number of CH wins but surely the elephant in the room would be what other legacy could we have made?

[Exar Essay]

I do think if you’re tempted to take the 4/7 PP’s are now offering Con’ Hill on his first obstacle being a hurdle and not a fence next season, as a punter you’d have to be smart enough to leave that alone and take the 5/4 on him winning the Champ Hurdle a few months later.

More than double the price.

But when it was evs it must’ve been tempting to sacrifice 0.25pts for payment in Nov rather than March.

I thought it was well priced initially. I do think there’s a realistic (but more unlikely) scenario where he goes chasing and then reverts to hurdles. Either because he didn’t take to fences or because Nicky has decided on a novice chase campaign with an eye to 2025 GC but prefers the prestige of the Churdle over the Arkle in ‘24. I’d probably have that at 4/1.

[Saxon Warrior]

Was this just a very, very clever ploy from PP? For those punters who believe he will stay over hurdles there's only one race he can go for and he certainly wouldn't be starting out over fences . Why would any of those punters back him to win the Champion Hurdle again in March when they can have the same price on him just to start in a hurdle race on his first start next season??!!
Could it be that PP believe he'll be going chasing and have dangled this enormous carrot so that they can balance their books somewhat to cover the overwhelming amount of bets they've taken on him to win one of the chases??

Brilliant bit of promotion IMO and now job done as punters have taken the bait.

I don't think so, as the 'starting a Chase first time out next season' is now the bigger price, so punters can back him to do that, and increase PP's risk on chasing if they wanted to, at above Evens.

I presume this Special had a stake limit?
I haven't tried it.

[Saxon Warrior]

But when it was evs it must’ve been tempting to sacrifice 0.25pts for payment in Nov rather than March.

I thought it was well priced initially. I do think there’s a realistic (but more unlikely) scenario where he goes chasing and then reverts to hurdles. Either because he didn’t take to fences or because Nicky has decided on a novice chase campaign with an eye to 2025 GC but prefers the prestige of the Churdle over the Arkle in ‘24. I’d probably have that at 4/1.

Definitely, Evens to "start a Hurdle" was a far better bet than backing him to win the Champion Hurdle. For people that think he is definitely staying over hurdles.

[AaronLad]

I think you’ve said it here yourself all those mentioned who went chasing were past there peak.. so if he is to do it the time is now really?

9 champion hurdler wins being anticlimactic is a mad statement really.. it’s not as if this is Nickys last year of being a trainer and the only chance to round up to 10 so it’s no more an anticlimactic number

He’s once in a generational horse so why should they conform to the normal?

If your argument is that Nickys is old and so won’t take the risk I just can’t see it. I’d be more under the impression that if they don’t try to push the ceiling it’ll be a game of what’s ifs and what could have been

He might have a climaxing rounded number of CH wins but surely the elephant in the room would be what other legacy could we have made?

of course the time would be now, if ever, to go chasing with him. my point was how rare it is for a current champion to change discipline.
9 is phenomenal but in 15 years willie could be on 10, and it might not be his planned last year, but at his age you never know when your last season is.
He is a once in a generation horse so why not win 5 champion hurdles? That certainly wouldn't be considered normal.
My view rather than argument is nicky has played it safe for a while now, why would he change that now?
The champion hurdle is a race he has become very good at winning, i think he'd like to post a total in that race he knows nobody will ever surpass.

I'm excited whatever he does, whether he goes on and joins the hurdling greats and then surpasses them or whether he tries something that the trainer woudln't normally choose to do, I can't wait.

[Lobos]

I don't think so, as the 'starting a Chase first time out next season' is now the bigger price, so punters can back him to do that, and increase PP's risk on chasing if they wanted to, at above Evens.

I presume this Special had a stake limit?
I haven't tried it.

Not sure anyone, myself included, who thinks he'll go chasing would take that price when we can get 4's or 12's Sax at the Fez.

[Lobos]

Definitely, Evens to "start a Hurdle" was a far better bet than backing him to win the Champion Hurdle. For people that think he is definitely staying over hurdles.

Yes, my point exactly. PP would have taken a fair bit I'd say. The carrot was big enough to sucker punters in. Brilliant marketing IMO as that price was too good to be true if you get where I'm coming from.

[charlie]

Sir Gerhard at 33/1 for the Ryanair is of interest. Had he not had an interrupted prep, Im fairly confident he'd have gone Turners and not BANC. I thought he ran with credit, but he's not a stayer IMO and I have seen nothing visually or in his breeding to suggest that he is. Willie looks to have a decent QMCC team, even at this early stage, so for me, the Ryanair is SG's most likely destination by default, and we're talking about a dual festival winner. We learnt last week that backing dual festival winners blind, regardless of price, is a sensible thing to do and I think with a clear run next season he'll emerge into a front running player in the market. The fly in the ointment or Elephant in the room, is other CPS stud horses. Envoi Allen will most likely come back to defend his crown and I'd have Allaho comfortably ahead of both of them in terms of raw ability. That being said, both these 2 will be 10 next year, one has been injured and SG is still relatively unexposed over fences.

[Saxon Warrior]

Not sure anyone, myself included, who thinks he'll go chasing would take that price when we can get 4's or 12's Sax at the Fez.

Doesn't stop you from backing both though, does it?
- for anyone who thinks he's going chasing and has backed him for a specific Chase.

If that were me, I'd defo be taking the '5/4 he starts in a chase' to at least get my stake back on my other chase bets on him (thus giving me a free bet on those targets, in reality, if he did go chasing in his 1st race of the season)

I'm not doing that, only because I've not backed him to go anywhere, and so have nothing to cover.

[Istabraq]

Doesn't stop you from backing both though, does it?
- for anyone who thinks he's going chasing and has backed him for a specific Chase.

If that were me, I'd defo be taking the '5/4 he starts in a chase' to at least get my stake back on my other chase bets on him (thus giving me a free bet on those targets, in reality, if he did go chasing in his 1st race of the season)

I'm not doing that, only because I've not backed him to go anywhere, and so have nothing to cover.

I would imagine that market will be heavily restricted, they might accommodate a few tenners but much more and I’d expect bets to get refused…