March 2023 Yankee

[Ice]

If all goes well beforehand, if he gets to through the next year’s training, if he turns up on the day next march fit and well, if CH don’t go chasing and turn up, if if if !!
Each to their own, but 4/1?
Think I will leave that and concentrate on finding ones now and in the coming weeks and months that are priced up much more to my liking .

Doesn't the 'if' part apply to all bets regardless of price ? I look at horses who i think will be shorter on the day and el fab @ 4/1 appealed to me as decent value. I get 4/1 for a race 51 weeks away may not appeal to everyone and wish you luck in finding something at a more appealing price, I'm also hoping to get on a few bigger priced horses.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Doesn't the 'if' part apply to all bets regardless of price ? I look at horses who i think will be shorter on the day and el fab @ 4/1 appealed to me as decent value. I get 4/1 for a race 51 weeks away may not appeal to everyone and wish you luck in finding something at a more appealing price, I'm also hoping to get on a few bigger priced horses.

Absolutely it applies to all bets.
For me there’s just too much that can happen to take that sort of price for a horse a year away. I would have to stake more than my rules allow.
We all have our ideas on what represents value, I appreciate that.
Good luck to you too.

[archie]

Absolutely it applies to all bets.
For me there’s just too much that can happen to take that sort of price for a horse a year away. I would have to stake more than my rules allow.
We all have our ideas on what represents value, I appreciate that.
Good luck to you too.

Use your free bets.

[Istabraq]

Use your free bets.

Does everyone get free bets ?
I know I’ve not had one since Aintree 2021….

[archie]

Does everyone get free bets ?
I know I’ve not had one since Aintree 2021….

I play the b365 and Coral free football prediction games which earn free bets and/or bet credits. Occasionally get time limited or otherwise restricted free bets like ?5 on the Sandown b365 Chase last year. Put on Hewick so returned ?80 which went straight on Galopin Des Champs at 7/2 and formed the basis of my regularly advised betting strategy for the Festival.

[Eggs]

….it’s decision time, so giving this thread a bump.

Seemed to start with folk looking for a bit of value in markets then shifted to shorties with certain targets. Be interesting what MoM goes for.

[HoldenTheReins]

I'd say this far out you want certain targets. Agree with Love Envoi for the Mares hurdle

[Lobos]

Helpful that we now know that C Hill most likely goes chasing (Arkle or CC) so that now opens up the Champion Hurdle and Turner's.

GDC-GC State Man -Churdle
IEP-Turners
Love Envoi -Mares

[Eggs]

…just had a very quick look. Not saying this is 100% accurate or MoM will consider any of these, but looking like the most popular nominations are;

Teahupoo (Stayers) 4 mentions; 10-1 widely available.
Stage Star (Ryan) 4; bits of 12-1.
Stay Away Fay (BANC) 7 mentions; 16-1 in places
Gaelic W (BANC) 4; 20-1 in places
Love Envoi (MH) 5; 10-1 in places
El Fab (CC) 5; 3-1

[Eggs]

….no indication from Middle_Of_March as yet, I have a time bound free bet burning a hole in one of my accounts waiting to be used.

[Middle_Of_March]

….no indication from Middle_Of_March as yet, I have a time bound free bet burning a hole in one of my accounts waiting to be used.

Will have this up tonight around midnight Eggs. Working til 10:15 but will get reading the thread as soon as I’m back home.

Had originally planned to do it on the way home from the football yesterday but I was far to pissed celebrating our superb win away at Derby to focus on horses haha.

[Eggs]

Will have this up tonight around midnight Eggs. Working til 10:15 but will get reading the thread as soon as I’m back home.

Had originally planned to do it on the way home from the football yesterday but I was far to pissed celebrating our superb win away at Derby to focus on horses haha.

….good to see Ipswich doing so well. I’m old enough to vividly remember the great sides when Bobby Robson managed, delighted ex-Toffee Nathan Broadhead is developing well. Great old club is Ipswich.

Sadly, I can’t claim to have ever played at Portman Rd, never mind scoring there.

[Middle_Of_March]

March Yankee:
Stay Away Fay - Brown Advisory at 16/1
Love Envoi - Mares Hurdle at 10/1
El Fabiolo - Champion Chase at 10/3
Flooring Porter - Stayers Hurdle at 25/1

Reasoning..
1) Stay Away Fay I went for over Gaelic Warrior. I obviously love Gaelic but the majority seemed to want SAF in and at similar prices it would be hard to justify the Albert Bartlett winner trained by Paul Nicholls not being a Grade 1 proposition next season. His target is surely the RSA. I think the price for a AB winner is crazy too in and part because he was unfancied by most for the AB this year. A win at Aintree and that price halves as he would have proved Cheltenham was no fluke. If we’re gonna include him, it might have had to be this month before the price went. Gaelic can wait for now.

2) Love Envoi has been very good for two seasons now and is clearly very consistent. A Punchestown win isn’t out of the question seeing as they were bold with her last year going to Fairyhouse post Cheltenham so she’s one we have to get on board now. She’s also an enormous price. She’d have bolted up if not for running into a dual Champion Hurdler. She won’t be up against anything like Honeysuckle next year and is the one to beat at this stage. Her target is obvious as well.

3) El Fabiolo. He has one target. His whole year next year will be revolving around the Champion Chase. Whilst Energumene is clearly very good, he’s had very soft ground twice. On normal quicker ground I think El Fab will be too quick for him. I’d say at 7/2 the younger horse is a fair price for multiples in general. He received enough nominations here to get the nod.

4) Flooring Porter was the final choice and this was the hardest. He was nominated a couple of times and again has one target you’d imagine. I decided seeing as the first three will all run bar injury that I’d like a fourth selection to be one we know is obvious. There’s surely no way FP doesn’t end up going for a third Stayers Hurdle if he’s fit and well. He’s 25/1 which is ridiculous. He ran a good race this year considering the desperate ground it seemed and more importantly the prep he had. I just don’t think on that ground he had it in his legs to do his normal catch me if you can tactics without a proper prep run. He should be back next year and with the top novice hurdlers mostly likely to be going over fences, I don’t see why he’s not worth including.

[somer1]

Im in.Good luck to all (again)

[Istabraq]

Good stuff MoM but why would you think ground was an issue for Flooring Porter this year ?
Fresh Thursday ground, only the Pertemps had been run on it so it hadn’t been opened up and the light rain that fell all day probably helped get rid of any sticky/gluey patches.
I agree he represents a bit of value at 25/1 but think it was more likely a poor prep this year that cost him…