March 2023 Yankee

[Eggs]

After another profitable season it’s great that Middle_Of_March has agreed to facilitate these for next Festival.

So, I suppose it’s back to grindstone with nominations for March Yankee. An informed guess at targets this far out & a bit of value could be the way to go.

I’d suggest a couple;

Teahupoo 12-1 (Stayers) - in the aftermath of this weeks race Russell said ‘he’s only young & will be back’, I have no reason to disagree.

Stage Star 16-1 (Ryanair) - his victory this week over some well thought of Novices might be underestimated & from what’s been said on here the Ryanair was mentioned after the race.

[Odin]

Stay Away Fay or Gaelic Warrior for the RSA could be interesting at this point. It's surprising to me that you can currently get 16/1 for the Bartlett winner for a trainer who loves chasers. Gaelic Warrior has been mentioned as a 3m chaser for next year on here but it would be a negative for him if Fact to File went straight over the big obstacles.

Guesswork and probably not good for a yankee but if Constitution stays hurdling, the 10/1ish around State Man Arkle could prove very inviting as well. I'd also keep an eye on The Nice Guy and Sir Gerhard for the Stayers (33/1 Paddy both I think)

[That Horse]

I stuck the below in the main Yankee thread but I'm not sure how many people go in and read at this time of year when all the Yankees are done for past year.

Just some food for thought and not suggesting we use that format for the March - May Yankees but one to consider for summer months

--
I wonder though could we do something different for at least the summer months - June, July, August?
We don't have that much info at that stage compared to later in the year unless someone has heard something from inside one of the stables.

I was reading Saxon Warrior 's recent point in his diary about doing less Cheltenham multiples antepost and trying to get a Cheltenham fancy doubled with something winning from earlier in the year, in essence a roll up going into Cheltenham.

We could do likewise for those summer Yankees where info is thin on the ground but where we can use either the big summer flat/jumps festivals for perhaps two selections and add them to two Cheltenham 2024 selections to make a Yankee.

The ideal scenario would be we have two winners/places locked in already before Cheltenham even starts.

We can then revert back to four Cheltenham picks from September onwards if need be, or keep using this 2+2 format if we manage to have any success with it, as there's various others national hunt meetings we can use in the run up to find winners.

I know it's changing what we've always done but sometimes it's at least worth asking the question and see what people think.
--
We also need to be wary for the Gordon Elliott Yankee in November as he changed up his methods in 2022 where his weren't firing on all cylinders at that meeting. Envoi Allen was the only Down Royal winner to win at Cheltenham, with Magical Zoe, Letsbeclearaboutit, Mighty Potter, Conflated and Pied Piper placing. So it isn't just Gordon using that meeting now for his horses, may need to consider likes of Henry and Gavin.

Happy to hear what other people think

[Exar Essay]

I agree with Stage Star and Teahupoo. I’d also be happy with either of Odin’s RSA suggestions. Both targets all but named and both have the ability to win. Slight preference for Gaelic Warrior given Nicholls is all about open company and might not have SAF right on the money next year.

Willie mentioned in the build up that State Man would stay hurdling. So I’d actually nominate him for the Champion Hurdle. At least 50% chance Con Hill goes chasing at which a point State Man becomes what, 4/1?

State Man (CH)
Gaelic Warrior (RSA)
Stage Star (Ryanair)
Teahupoo (Stayers)

[Faugheen_Machine]

Stay Away Fay or Gaelic Warrior for the RSA could be interesting at this point. It's surprising to me that you can currently get 16/1 for the Bartlett winner for a trainer who loves chasers. Gaelic Warrior has been mentioned as a 3m chaser for next year on here but it would be a negative for him if Fact to File went straight over the big obstacles.

Guesswork and probably not good for a yankee but if Constitution stays hurdling, the 10/1ish around State Man Arkle could prove very inviting as well. I'd also keep an eye on The Nice Guy and Sir Gerhard for the Stayers (33/1 Paddy both I think)

I think Sir Gerhard is over-priced, but for the Ryanair. 40/1 for a duel festival winner, and who has valid excuses for underperforming this year, seems very fair to me. I'd agree that the Brown Advisory is a race worth targeting ante post. Gaelic Warrior, Stay Away Fay and Corbetts Cross are at the top of my shortlist.

I nabbed some 40/1 on Fact or File for the AB after he ran well in the bumper. That could be my first NR of the year!

[jrjr]

Thinking about Stay Away Fay, do I remember talk of Hermes Allen going up in trip? If so, that would leave his two best novice hurdlers from this year looking at the same race (BANC).

[Odin]

I stuck the below in the main Yankee thread but I'm not sure how many people go in and read at this time of year when all the Yankees are done for past year.

Just some food for thought and not suggesting we use that format for the March - May Yankees but one to consider for summer months

--
I wonder though could we do something different for at least the summer months - June, July, August?
We don't have that much info at that stage compared to later in the year unless someone has heard something from inside one of the stables.

I was reading Saxon Warrior 's recent point in his diary about doing less Cheltenham multiples antepost and trying to get a Cheltenham fancy doubled with something winning from earlier in the year, in essence a roll up going into Cheltenham.

We could do likewise for those summer Yankees where info is thin on the ground but where we can use either the big summer flat/jumps festivals for perhaps two selections and add them to two Cheltenham 2024 selections to make a Yankee.

The ideal scenario would be we have two winners/places locked in already before Cheltenham even starts.

We can then revert back to four Cheltenham picks from September onwards if need be, or keep using this 2+2 format if we manage to have any success with it, as there's various others national hunt meetings we can use in the run up to find winners.

I know it's changing what we've always done but sometimes it's at least worth asking the question and see what people think.
--
We also need to be wary for the Gordon Elliott Yankee in November as he changed up his methods in 2022 where his weren't firing on all cylinders at that meeting. Envoi Allen was the only Down Royal winner to win at Cheltenham, with Magical Zoe, Letsbeclearaboutit, Mighty Potter, Conflated and Pied Piper placing. So it isn't just Gordon using that meeting now for his horses, may need to consider likes of Henry and Gavin.

Happy to hear what other people think

I like your idea of using the summer flat meetings, it's something I've always done with varying levels of success. My worry is how many people here follow it to the same extent and whether for a lot it would just be guesswork as we're mainly focussed around NH/Cheltenham on the forum. Would be pretty cool to have a 16/1 flat big handicap winner in the bag though going on to two more solid festival hopes!

[Odin]

With respect to the Nicholls conundrum, I actually think that SAF is the one we can have going all out as he's won the Grade 1 as a novice. I'd be more inclined to believe that now he has two top class possibilities, Nicholls will take it easier with Hermes as he flopped in the Bally and go all out for the RSA with SAF. In other years when Nicholls only had one top class prospect (e.g. Bravemansgame), I wouldn't be as interested.

And with respect to Sir Gerhard, I agree he's got definite excuses Faugheen_Machine but can you have any confidence he can sort his jumping out?! I'd be more inclined to believe AI and El Fabiolo/Energumene go there?

[That Horse]

I like your idea of using the summer flat meetings, it's something I've always done with varying levels of success. My worry is how many people here follow it to the same extent and whether for a lot it would just be guesswork as we're mainly focussed around NH/Cheltenham on the forum. Would be pretty cool to have a 16/1 flat big handicap winner in the bag though going on to two more solid festival hopes!

Completely fair point. There are summer jumps fixtures too such as the Galway festival so no need to tie it down to flat racing on its own.

I do think there is generally good discussion around the likes of Royal Ascot that we would still draw in good numbers of FJs to think of a few selections if need be though.

[Hurricane fly]

The only thing I would say is that the profit came from the pre season multis!

[That Horse]

The only thing I would say is that the profit came from the pre season multis!

April and May I believe, where we still have good knowledge to use from the likes of Aintree, Fairyhouse and Punchestown. Not suggesting we change how we do those Yankees.

My point is those summer months where we don't have much else to go on in terms of info could maybe used to better effect.

[Eggs]

April and May I believe, where we still have good knowledge to use from the likes of Aintree, Fairyhouse and Punchestown. Not suggesting we change how we do those Yankees.

My point is those summer months where we don't have much else to go on in terms of info could maybe used to better effect.

….rather than this ‘replacing’ the monthly Yankee through the summer months, why not introduce as an additional offering for the site?

I know we have a roll-up thread, but there’s nothing to stop us having a new thread to accommodate this. Actually think it’s a good idea to generate interest through the off-season.

[Always a Claimer]

Agree on Teahupoo for stayers and I also like Stage Star in the Ryanair. How about Blazing Khal for the Browns? Ran with credit in the stayers despite a far from ideal prep. There was talk of him chasing in 2022-23 last spring before they stuck to hurdling. 8 next year. Now or never!

[Hurricane fly]

I Am Maximus to follow the GDM route? Not sure if his form is quite on the same level though

[Exar Essay]

I Am Maximus to follow the GDM route? Not sure if his form is quite on the same level though

He looks an awfully complicated ride. Perhaps not the type to excel here? I’m on the look out for one Gordon sends chasing later in the season for a spin round. Like chemical energy this year.