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FJ Day Three (Thursday) Yankee - Captain: Guinness Village
….my own view is that the more open races are considered. Perhaps take on a vulnerable shortie if an additional selection is needed. Seems a bit of a wasted opportunity to take on all of the favourites.
Coole Cody - PLATE - 33/1 (probably bigger on Sunday)
2021 - rated 143 - 4th in the Plate beaten 6L by The Shunter
2022 - rated 145 - 1st in the Plate beating Imperial Alcazar 2023 - rated 143 - we will see......
Even though he's 12, that's been compensated with him dropping down the weights and given a right chance again. How many winners return 2lbs lower? How many horses place again off the same mark? Can't be a bad thing!
Uncomplicated ride, prominant.... more Cheltenham experience than anything in the field by a margin.
Has won on Good (beaten Saint Calvados at Ascot) and Soft (this race)
His 2x highest RPR's both same in 2022 - so not that long ago really.
From a pure handicapping perspective, based on his last 2 festivals, 33/1 is a MASSIVE .... and it could be bigger on the day!
Coole Cody - PLATE - 33/1 (probably bigger on Sunday)
2021 - rated 143 - 4th in the Plate beaten 6L by The Shunter
2022 - rated 145 - 1st in the Plate beating Imperial Alcazar 2023 - rated 143 - we will see......
Even though he's 12, that's been compensated with him dropping down the weights and given a right chance again. How many winners return 2lbs lower? How many horses place again off the same mark? Can't be a bad thing!
Uncomplicated ride, prominant.... more Cheltenham experience than anything in the field by a margin.
Has won on Good (beaten Saint Calvados at Ascot) and Soft (this race)
His 2x highest RPR's both same in 2022 - so not that long ago really.
From a pure handicapping perspective, based on his last 2 festivals, 33/1 is a MASSIVE .... and it could be bigger on the day!
I'll definitely have a pound or two on him Ew 8 places on the day. Wonderful Cheltenham specialist.
Coole Cody - PLATE - 33/1 (probably bigger on Sunday)
2021 - rated 143 - 4th in the Plate beaten 6L by The Shunter
2022 - rated 145 - 1st in the Plate beating Imperial Alcazar 2023 - rated 143 - we will see......
Even though he's 12, that's been compensated with him dropping down the weights and given a right chance again. How many winners return 2lbs lower? How many horses place again off the same mark? Can't be a bad thing!
Uncomplicated ride, prominant.... more Cheltenham experience than anything in the field by a margin.
Has won on Good (beaten Saint Calvados at Ascot) and Soft (this race)
His 2x highest RPR's both same in 2022 - so not that long ago really.
From a pure handicapping perspective, based on his last 2 festivals, 33/1 is a MASSIVE .... and it could be bigger on the day!
I was going to suggest the same horse. First clocked him after the January run and still haven't pulled the trigger. Hoping for the extra places on the day but everyone else backing him is scaring the crap out of me!
I was going to suggest the same horse. First clocked him after the January run and still haven't pulled the trigger. Hoping for the extra places on the day but everyone else backing him is scaring the crap out of me!
Wouldn't worry about that.... I'd be surprised if you couldn't get 40s between now and the off.
33s with more than 5 places too.
If people were going to cotton on, it'd have happened by now
Last 4 winners of the Plate won at Cheltenham that season.
Coole Cody - started off the season off 135 and won at the Festival off 145.
The Shunter - he won his handicap hurdle at Cheltenham off 128 and won the Plate off 140.
Simply the Betts - started off 125 and won the Plate off 149.
Siruh du Lac - started off 123 and won the Plate off 141.
I'd be more interested in an improving horse that has ran well all season.
The new course over 2m4 suits those near the pace as well.
All 4 of the winners above led or were very prominent.
Let's look at the entries and those who have won at Cheltenham this year.
Stage Star - won't come here.
Midnight River - 3rd in November off 145 (held up), won on New Year's Day off 145 (midfield). Hasn't been prominent so I'll ignore.
Il Ridoto - 4,4,1 form figures at Cheltenham. Rear, prominent and then lead. First time cheekpieces attributed to the improvement but could have just been the more forceful tactics. Won off 138, now 146. Only 6 years old and could still be improving. Player
Dad's Lad - won a 2m handicap chase in October (Editeur du Gite finished a 13 length 3rd) off 135. In rear. Would the step up in trip help? I don't think so and wouldn't be on the shortlist.
Seddon - won a 2m4 handicap hurdle in October, then won a 2m5 handicap chase at Leopardstown at Xmas. Probably be ridden prominent. Won off 123 at Leopardstown, 2nd at Cartmel in the summer off 128 and now 143. Player.
Not sure if I've missed one but for an each way shot, Il Ridoto or Seddon would be my play.
Keep it coming. I’ve got a take away from the dil raj in knaresborough, a 4 pack of deya steady rolling man and I’m off home to watch some replays and do my homework.
As an EW leg I like Jetara @ 14/1. Her breeding is pretty much as good as it gets IMO. By Walk In The Park, dams sire Milan. As JH said 'it's some family and you can't beat breeding'. That maiden hurdle form looks rock solid. Not many have run since, but Parmenion has won, Diverge has bolted up looking really useful and High Definition is being nibbled for the Supreme. Jet's ran to RPR's of 114 on debut, then 122 behind High Definition, then 133 LTO, and I can see her continuing to improve and running to 140+ at Cheltenham as an improving 5 year old. Luccia is the only horse in the race to run over a 140 RPR so far, but she carries a penally and I think she's easy to look past at 6/4, thats way too short IMO.
I love Jetara each way as well ..... Charlie and I were flirting about that in his diary which I won't repeat but a massive shout at the weights.
I’m an ashroe diamond fan, but couldn’t help but be impressed by her rum in solerina. Still nice price. Might get 4 places on day. Had a little saver on her myself. One for the shortlist.
Coole Cody - PLATE - 33/1 (probably bigger on Sunday)
2021 - rated 143 - 4th in the Plate beaten 6L by The Shunter
2022 - rated 145 - 1st in the Plate beating Imperial Alcazar 2023 - rated 143 - we will see......
Even though he's 12, that's been compensated with him dropping down the weights and given a right chance again. How many winners return 2lbs lower? How many horses place again off the same mark? Can't be a bad thing!
Uncomplicated ride, prominant.... more Cheltenham experience than anything in the field by a margin.
Has won on Good (beaten Saint Calvados at Ascot) and Soft (this race)
His 2x highest RPR's both same in 2022 - so not that long ago really.
From a pure handicapping perspective, based on his last 2 festivals, 33/1 is a MASSIVE .... and it could be bigger on the day!
3 of the 4 handicap chases last year were won by horses aged 10+. Think there's something in the handicapper getting a bit more lenient with this type and dropping their marks a bit more readily than before. I won't be excluding any from handicaps based purely on age this year.
Last 4 winners of the Plate won at Cheltenham that season.
Coole Cody - started off the season off 135 and won at the Festival off 145.
The Shunter - he won his handicap hurdle at Cheltenham off 128 and won the Plate off 140.
Simply the Betts - started off 125 and won the Plate off 149.
Siruh du Lac - started off 123 and won the Plate off 141.
I'd be more interested in an improving horse that has ran well all season.
The new course over 2m4 suits those near the pace as well.
All 4 of the winners above led or were very prominent.
Let's look at the entries and those who have won at Cheltenham this year.
Stage Star - won't come here.
Midnight River - 3rd in November off 145 (held up), won on New Year's Day off 145 (midfield). Hasn't been prominent so I'll ignore.
Il Ridoto - 4,4,1 form figures at Cheltenham. Rear, prominent and then lead. First time cheekpieces attributed to the improvement but could have just been the more forceful tactics. Won off 138, now 146. Only 6 years old and could still be improving. Player
Dad's Lad - won a 2m handicap chase in October (Editeur du Gite finished a 13 length 3rd) off 135. In rear. Would the step up in trip help? I don't think so and wouldn't be on the shortlist.
Seddon - won a 2m4 handicap hurdle in October, then won a 2m5 handicap chase at Leopardstown at Xmas. Probably be ridden prominent. Won off 123 at Leopardstown, 2nd at Cartmel in the summer off 128 and now 143. Player.
Not sure if I've missed one but for an each way shot, Il Ridoto or Seddon would be my play.
Like this to be fair (despite it going against my selection)
Of the two, massively prefer Il Ridoto .... I think though partly because I want to see Nicholls win more than I think he will
3 of the 4 handicap chases last year were won by horses aged 10+. Think there's something in the handicapper getting a bit more lenient with this type and dropping their marks a bit more readily than before. I won't be excluding any from handicaps based purely on age this year.
Yeah, Kevin Blake backed that up on the Betfair preview tonight
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