Originally posted by Kevloaf
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FJ Day One (Tuesday) Yankee - Captain: HesTheOne
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Originally posted by somer1 View PostNo way on this earth im backing a horse at 9/2 E/W
If going e/w surely we can find bigger than that with a place and win chance.
Either Supreme, Arkle, CH and NHC on the nose, or Ultima, Boodles, Mares and Supreme e/w for me.
Prefer 2nd option myself.
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….I always think the choice of whether to back e/w or not is down to the individual rather than a directive from the Captain.
Like others, I wouldn’t be backing 9/2 shots e/w but I usually pop an e/w accumulator on as a bit of insurance.
I think I’d be looking at the most open races each day and having a crack at solving them, then maybe adding a more obvious selection if needed.Last edited by Eggs; 7 March 2023, 01:27 PM.
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Mares - Love Envoi - been aimed here all season unlike some of the others. Will get the distance. On the up.
Ultima - Corach Rambler - 2/2 at Cheltenham. Race has reasonable repeat record. Ran in right sort of trials.
Boodles - Cougar - similar case made by charlie few posts back.
NHC - Chemical Energy - hanging on to the fact gordon had him earmarked for this nice and early. Obviously in need of the run the last day. GdM very short for a horse that doen't in very often.
Should all be E/W prices offering a bit of value against the favourites.
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I think the 4 races best suited to this would be the supreme,ultima,mares and boodles.
i'd mostly be interested in doing some picks that i haven't generally been covered as of yet too.
Supreme..high definition..may get an uncontested lead and i'd rather have him than diverge at the price.
Ultima...any of 7 could go in here so i'll go along with the most voted, one i would mention though ,if it came up soft on tuesday only, is fanion d'estruval, i think it would be tempting to run him here if it emerged tues was going to be the softest day, 155 this horse can run to 160 in those conditions.
Mares...queens brook, it may become quite attritional on tuesday.
Boodles..samual spade
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Samuel Spade is popular on the Boodles thread and Cougar here so I'd suggest one of those two. The Irish have been stronger in the juvenile division all year and I'd expect them to have the upper hand here. Cougar was raised one of the least, won the Down Royal 3 year old race that typically produces a good winner and I'd expect (although I haven't looked) he will be the highest rated flat horse.
Brandy Love will win the Mares.
Ultima I haven't had too much of a look at it. Usually goes to one near the top of the market so look for something there.
Arkle and Champion Hurdle markets I will ignore.
Then either the Supreme or the National Hunt Chase. Do we go for a 'banker' in one leg with GDM or go for something in the Supreme, where I expect we will be split 50:50 on whether or not to oppose FV. I can't see IET out of the top 3 and would pick him.
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A naiad horse wins the ultima
But it's not this years one
It's happygolucky
finished 2nd in this off 147 then won easily at Aintree off 149
Then had 600 days off the track and ran a belter in behind lhomme presse and into overdrive who have both advertised the form since
Finished 10th next time but that was over 2m4f which is too short for him
goes on gd and soft ground
Has run in 2 festival handicaps and placed in both
14s looks very fair
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Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View PostA naiad horse wins the ultima
But it's not this years one
It's happygolucky
finished 2nd in this off 147 then won easily at Aintree off 149
Then had 600 days off the track and ran a belter in behind lhomme presse and into overdrive who have both advertised the form since
Finished 10th next time but that was over 2m4f which is too short for him
goes on gd and soft ground
Has run in 2 festival handicaps and placed in both
14s looks very fair
Said it's been the plan for this year too. I'm gonna have to back him, I'd be sick if he won and I wasn't on...
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Charlie has put a good case forward for Cougar and I admit to being keen on him early doors but as the season has progressed, my enthusiasm for him has been tempered somewhat. Firstly his hurdle wins have little to no substance and the horses that finished behind him have done very little to frank the form. Secondly his run in The Knight Frank was underwhelming to say the least. He ran too freely and found very little in the closing stages and although connections may have been trying to conceal his true ability somewhat, I feel his ability over hurdles may have been exposed.
So, with that in mind I propose a well-handicapped alternative in Samuel Spade. He has form ties to Perseus Way who finished a decent 1 1/4l second to Nusret at Kempton recently giving the winner 3lb. Nusret ran well in the Grade 2 race at Leopardstown and IMO has shown the best juvenile form in Ireland outside of the top 2 in the Triumph Hurdle betting. Sam Spade is now weighted to reverse the form with both Nusret and Perseus Way so with those two covered, I think the horse to beat is the current Boodles Hurdle favourite. A tenuous formline through Gala Marceau and Nusret would suggest that 'Sam The Man' could give Tekao something to think about.
Samuel Spade confirmed his well-being recently by recording a facile 16l victory in a Class 4 Novice Hurdle at Huntingdon and 19 days of rest and recuperation at his new purpose-built stables will put him spot on for The Festival.
I could try and bolster my case by suggesting that the trainer knows how to train a festival winner and that his new facilities have rejuvenated his string of horses but I won't. I'll let Samuel Spades form and credentials speak for themselves.
That, Your Honour, concludes the case for the first English trained winner of The Boodles since Flying Tiger.
Last edited by Fouroverthrutwo; 7 March 2023, 10:53 PM.
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