Weather Watch

[Green Goddess]

Metcheck are as good as any:

https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/16d...m%20Racecourse

The problem with any single model output / forecast at this stage is that if it gets something wrong early in the 14 day forecast the rest is garbage.

Metcheck, like others including, BBC, are updated off the GFS model output, which is 4 different models, each updated once a day but at 4 to 6 hour intervals. So when you check the forecast at 7 and its totally changed by 12, then changed again at 6, its because its 3 different models, not the same one updating each time.

That's probably enough to send everyone to sleep now....

[Kevloaf]

Yes, very happy to do so.

We don't have an official weather forecaster yet!


I've given you the unofficial title for now....we'll see how you get on

[Green Goddess]

We don't have an official weather forecaster yet!


I've given you the unofficial title for now....we'll see how you get on

An honour and a privilege....

[Gibbs829]

The more I check the forecast, the more concerned I feel that the low temps could cause significant issues.

It appears some weather sites are now saying the coldest nights could now be the weekend before, Cheltenham Eve and into the first two days.

Theres always something to keep us on our toes in the build-up these days! Equine Flu, Covid, Global warming

[Green Goddess]

So today's models only really show agreement to 5th / 6th March so safe to ignore anything beyond this at this stage.

Temperatures - the green, operational run (the one the BBC/Met check use) is the lowest temp forecast so unlikely to be as extreme as forecast sites show. Some models showing a warming trend.

Rain - still favouring a relatively dry period but some runs show very heavy rain periods. These will likely become less extreme the closer we get.

[Irish Rugby]

https://insights.matchbook.com/betting-previews/horse-racing-tips/matt-tombs-cheltenham-trends-analysing-the-impact-of-watering/

An interesting analysis here by Matt Tombs which delves into the water table issue and concludes that Cheltenham is more and more becoming a dual purpose course, the two sides being the old course, and the new one. If anyone has forgotten, we run the first two days on the old course, and the Thursday/Friday is on the new one.

[Green Goddess]

A wetter set of runs today, also a warmer trend emerging (with the exception of 1 run that goes down to night-time lows of -5).

Still not much alignment beyond 7th so could still go in either direction.

[Green Goddess]

A second day running where models are favouring a wetter period leading up to Cheltenham.

The rain looks potentially very heavy but also localised. A clerks worst nightmare to be fair.

Still no agreement/ consistency between models beyond the 7th. Hopefully when we get to the date the forecast will become clearer.

[HoldenTheReins]

'You do not have permission to view this gallery.
This gallery has 1 photos.'

is it just me that see's this as GG is clearly posting photos?

[Quevega]

'You do not have permission to view this gallery.
This gallery has 1 photos.'

is it just me that see's this as GG is clearly posting photos?

i see it too

[Saxon Warrior]

i see it too

No photo for me either

[Quevega]

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/383496831842?chn=ps&norover=1&mkevt=1&mkrid=710-134428-41853-0&mkcid=2&mkscid=101&itemid=383496831842&targetid=1404115579093&device=c&mktype=pla&googleloc=9046389&poi=&campaignid=17218284410&mkgroupid=142217514411&rlsatarget=aud-1657461044108:pla-1404115579093&abcId=9300867&merchantid=10054054&gclid=Cj0KCQiA9YugBhCZARIsAACXxeKMXUj5AHSl4dBdTtTkpoTmq1kDBdjKKnQH6jmeJZ7FEpcWlMi3t7EaAo3cEALw_wcB

there you go

[EnvoiAlien]

'You do not have permission to view this gallery.
This gallery has 1 photos.'

is it just me that see's this as GG is clearly posting photos?

Same here,thought maybe the images were only visible under subscription like some other "sites"

[Green Goddess]

Sorry.....seems my pic uploads aren't working so will try to verbalise instead.

After briefly trying to reintroduce a drier lead up to the festival, models have switched back to showin a far wetter period (of varying amounts) for the Uk.They still don't align passed the 9th /10th (not unusual) so forecasts beyond this should be taken with a pinch of salt.

That said, it really does come down to two things now. 1) Friday 10th to Monday 13th hold the greatest potential for heavy rain at this stage, how much falls on those days will have a big impact on ground. 2) the rain bands that will sweep across the country over next 2 weeks will be heavy and localised. If you catch one it could result in up to 8mm/per hour when heaviest, but 20 miles away you'll see <1mm per hour.

If I was a betting man, at this stage I don't see a Good ground scenario.

Prediction = Soft, Good to Soft in places.

[Green Goddess]

Final thing to say, GFS which BBC, Metcheck etc use to make their forecasts tend to overpredict rainfall as you get closer to the event. Netweather and Met Office tend to be better if you're looking at actual forecasts.