***DOING A NAIAD 2023*** Live Podcast Wednesday 22nd February

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

There are plenty of valid points being made. But I'm sure you guys are aware that I do much more research that the Racing Post form and watch videos. It is worth saying this though, because I haven't.

I work very hard at getting information that's not in the public domain. Information that I couldn't share here. So there are other reasons that perhaps give me more confidence about my final selection that would be the case on other horses I back at the Festival.

This was was true with Happyoglucky who hit the bar two years ago. He missed the trends, not least his lack of experience with only three chases. But I used contacts, and was aware of things that we as general punters wouldn't usually be.

Galahad didn't run, possibly because a bat and ball job, so I can't say either way. But coincidentally there are a couple of people on here that know what information I had and why I selected him. Why connections changed their mind about running is a matter for them.

Tea Clipper (the mini-Naiad), last year missed a few trends and finished fourth despite lots of jumping errors. I wouldn't have put him up with the timing that I ended up with. He was just a value bet based on information I had. His price wasn't a reflection of his chances, and the price had already sailed on a more likely winner.

In all cases if you take a perfect trends fit, none would have been selections. And coincidentally, the majority of handicap winners every year don't fit all the trends. I like trends and use them as a guideline to make shortlists. But I'm not a slave to them, otherwise I'd never make money. I just use them to eliminate horse that really aren't fits at all. I'll forgive a horse missing a couple of trends, and then I'll do my own work around form and visuals, and then try to gather in all other information I can from elsewhere, and I narrow shortlists down to a selection.

For the Naiad I can focus down on doing this to obsession for just a few horses. But to do it to this extent for every horse in every handicap would be impossible.

I'm not saying this because I think anyone is having a go. I know nobody is. But it is right that I explain that the selection isn't just a case of the usual form study. That doesn't mean we have a cast iron winner, just that it may have a better chance of winning than face value, and in terms of what I know, in my estimation I expect the horse to give us an excellent run for our money.

The history of the bet is very profitable, generally meaning we at least get a place, and sometimes the winner, and almost always a very good run for our money, so I reckon all the hard yards are worth it.

For what it's worth I have a second horse bubbling up. It won't be a Naiad because there can only be one of them, but it will be as a result of the Naiad work. So if the price holds, we're recording a podcast on Friday night, and I hope to be able to let you know about that one too. It'll depend on when Kevloaf puts the podcast up though so I can't guarantee everyone will get the price at the point I put it up.

Hi Paul,

We met at the festival last year in the Centaur stand, albeit briefly.. Personally, I think this all about having some fun whilst trying to have a collective win at the bookies expense. I’m sure I speak for many when I say ‘thank you’ for making this such as exciting moment to look forward to. Personally, I don’t presently have the time to invest to crunch the numbers and do the analysis. I’m sure you must feel a lot of pressure having to put up a recommendation now the pattern has been set, but please don’t on our account. Good luck with the bet and I hope you have an enjoyable and profitable festival. Thanks once again for doing the hard work for us. Analysis to the contrary, IMHO, is fine and inevitable but I don’t see other people doing a ‘Doing a Naiad’ thread where people put their necks on the line so credit to you. Beat of luck.

CNC

[Outlaw]

Galahad didn't run, possibly because a bat and ball job, so I can't say either way. But coincidentally there are a couple of people on here that know what information I had and why I selected him. Why connections changed their mind about running is a matter for them.

The one thing that you did mention and has been highlighted by a few was the possible reason of the price going for Galahad last year as a possible reason for them not going the race, whilst that is partly plausible what's your opinion of him as of now out of curiosity ?

Obvs you have to be bullish with such picks and put your neck out in doing so but given he's plateaued since then still at intermediate trips and the 1 3m spin I assume you've spoken to connections/trainer given your confidence in him at the time.

[Tangodelta]

Owners double Nassalam and Botox Has in the pertemps?

[robith]

I don't think you really have to justify yourself to such lengths Spectre. I would hope on a forum such as this, if people's opinion is against yours that they would bet accordingly, it's not that deep

[Spectre]

The one thing that you did mention and has been highlighted by a few was the possible reason of the price going for Galahad last year as a possible reason for them not going the race, whilst that is partly plausible what's your opinion of him as of now out of curiosity ?

Obvs you have to be bullish with such picks and put your neck out in doing so but given he's plateaued since then still at intermediate trips and the 1 3m spin I assume you've spoken to connections/trainer given your confidence in him at the time.

My opinion is that I don't think he's been campaigned as well as he could have been (I would say that though wouldn't I ), but on the balance of form now may not have been good enough anyway. I think Corach Rambler would have won irrespective of whether he ran or not.

I'm still of the opinion that he'd be seen to best effect with a prominent run over 3 miles on a relatively easy course like the old course, and I hope that one day that he gets the opportunity to prove it.

[Spectre]

Hi Paul,

We met at the festival last year in the Centaur stand, albeit briefly.. Personally, I think this all about having some fun whilst trying to have a collective win at the bookies expense. I’m sure I speak for many when I say ‘thank you’ for making this such as exciting moment to look forward to. Personally, I don’t presently have the time to invest to crunch the numbers and do the analysis. I’m sure you must feel a lot of pressure having to put up a recommendation now the pattern has been set, but please don’t on our account. Good luck with the bet and I hope you have an enjoyable and profitable festival. Thanks once again for doing the hard work for us. Analysis to the contrary, IMHO, is fine and inevitable but I don’t see other people doing a ‘Doing a Naiad’ thread where people put their necks on the line so credit to you. Beat of luck.

CNC

I remember very well indeed, and I hope we get the opportunity to catch up again soon. Possibly if you're at this years Festival?

I also really appreciate the kind words.

[Spectre]

I don't think you really have to justify yourself to such lengths Spectre. I would hope on a forum such as this, if people's opinion is against yours that they would bet accordingly, it's not that deep

Thanks Rob. I don't mind explaining my rationale and thoughts though if people want to know.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

I remember very well indeed, and I hope we get the opportunity to catch up again soon. Possibly if you're at this years Festival?

I also really appreciate the kind words.

I’m there on the Tuesday and Wednesday. You?

[Aldie1988]

Thanks Paul as always appreciate the time and effort gone in on the Naiad , managed to tune in the other night. This is my first post since last year due to my account being stuck on a redundant email address. Kev kindly sorted for me today! Good luck everyone

[Spectre]

I’m there on the Tuesday and Wednesday. You?

All week. We definitely need to organise a catch-up. I suspect there will be a group from here meeting at the Parade Ring prior to the Ultima, so that may be easiest.

I'll post something up nearer the time.

[Lobos]

All week. We definitely need to organise a catch-up. I suspect there will be a group from here meeting at the Parade Ring prior to the Ultima, so that may be easiest.

I'll post something up nearer the time.

Wheres the parade ring in the Best Mate enclosure??

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

All week. We definitely need to organise a catch-up. I suspect there will be a group from here meeting at the Parade Ring prior to the Ultima, so that may be easiest.

I'll post something up nearer the time.

Where me met last time was so easy to find and relatively quiet, all things considered. It might be easiest to rinse and repeat. Just my view.

[Spectre]

Yes let's do that. Do you usually get to the course early? It may be easier to meet before racing starts?

I'm not sure a general meet there during the Festival would work though. I think possibly a Club Badge might be needed for access.

[RoadToCheltenham]

Gary Moore on the Naiad in the RP Members tonight.

"I'd like to think he's got a massive chance," said Moore. "He'd want the ground a bit softer, if we were lucky enough to get that. Over three miles it won't be quite as crucial. He ran so well there last time, two and a half miles was probably an inadequate trip for him. He still ran a nice race, he's had a very light season because of the ground, he's got a reasonable weight and he's got a nice chance."

[Kevloaf]

Gary Moore on the Naiad in the RP Members tonight.

"I'd like to think he's got a massive chance," said Moore. "He'd want the ground a bit softer, if we were lucky enough to get that. Over three miles it won't be quite as crucial. He ran so well there last time, two and a half miles was probably an inadequate trip for him. He still ran a nice race, he's had a very light season because of the ground, he's got a reasonable weight and he's got a nice chance."

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