***DOING A NAIAD 2023*** Live Podcast Wednesday 22nd February

[Glasgow Ronnie]

Much appreciated for all the work Paul

[Eggs]

….let’s see how Nassalam does on some key trends;

THE LAST 10 WINNERS;

- Were trained in Britain ———— YES
- Had won no more than 4 chases, the majority winning 1 or 2 —————- YES (has won 3 chases)
- Had tasted victory over at least 3m (fences or hurdles) —————— NO (has only won over 2m 4f)
- Had at least 4 starts in the last 12 months ——————- NO (will have run 3 times in 12 months)
- Had run at Chelt before (7 over fences) with 6 winning —————— YES (run 3 times but no wins)


9 OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS;

- Had a least 5 starts over fences (the exception being Un Temps Pour Tout who had 3) —————— YES (has run 8 times over fences)
- Taken part in at least 1 H’cap Chase. 3 of the last 4 had won more than 1 —————— YES (ran in 5, won 2)
- Finished in the first 3 in one of their last 3 starts ————— YES (finished 3rd on last start)
- Last run no more than 59 days ago (the exception being Beware the Bear) —————- NO (likely to be 72 days)
- Did not carry top weight. Finishing positions of the last 10 top weights, 0443P3107FP ————- YES (mark of 144, doubt top weight)


Trying 3m for the first time would be the main concern for me but connections should know what they’re doing.

[Carnage at Taunton]

….let’s see how Nassalam does on some key trends;

THE LAST 10 WINNERS;

- Were trained in Britain ———— YES
- Had won no more than 4 chases, the majority winning 1 or 2 —————- YES (has won 3 chases)
- Had tasted victory over at least 3m (fences or hurdles) —————— NO (has only won over 2m 4f)
- Had at least 4 starts in the last 12 months ——————- NO (will have run 3 times in 12 months)
- Had run at Chelt before (7 over fences) with 6 winning —————— YES (run 3 times but no wins)


9 OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS;

- Had a least 5 starts over fences (the exception being Un Temps Pour Tout who had 3) —————— YES (has run 8 times over fences)
- Taken part in at least 1 H’cap Chase. 3 of the last 4 had won more than 1 —————— YES (ran in 5, won 2)
- Finished in the first 3 in one of their last 3 starts ————— YES (finished 3rd on last start)
- Last run no more than 59 days ago (the exception being Beware the Bear) —————- NO (likely to be 72 days)
- Did not carry top weight. Finishing positions of the last 10 top weights, 0443P3107FP ————- YES (mark of 144, doubt top weight)


Trying 3m for the first time would be the main concern for me but connections should know what they’re doing.

Yep would absolutely trust connections if it came down to him staying

[Rooster Booster]

Blame the traffic

[The Giant Bolster]

Sadly Nandos wifi was very erratic so it had gone to 12s by the time I could get on, so I only had a small dabble to feel part of the fun

Pretty niche point here but I found Nandos WiFi blocks gambling sites. This caused a problem for me at Christmas decs until I realised I could pick up Pizza Express WiFi from the restaurant and they don't block!

[doctorwu]

Thanks for the effort put in Spectre.
Its good to know there’s confidence behind a horse I’ve backed in a handicap.

You've backed an English trainer, surely not.........

[Carnage at Taunton]

You've backed an English trainer, surely not.........

Haha…not just English , but good old Sussex by the sea as well

[darlojim]

Nassalam
Ultima Handicap Chase, 10-1
I'd like to think he'd have a nice chance. He ran really well last time at Cheltenham and I think he's been crying out for three miles, and some soft ground wouldn't go amiss. We'll keep the headgear on; it's sharpened him up just because that better ground isn't really his cup of tea. He's not ungenuine, we just want to eke a bit of improvement out of him.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Nassalam
Ultima Handicap Chase, 10-1
I'd like to think he'd have a nice chance. He ran really well last time at Cheltenham and I think he's been crying out for three miles, and some soft ground wouldn't go amiss. We'll keep the headgear on; it's sharpened him up just because that better ground isn't really his cup of tea. He's not ungenuine, we just want to eke a bit of improvement out of him.

Soft ground might be a problem.
Dont seem to be much rain about.

[The Fellow]

Day one of the festival , you would imagine the ground would be well watered if required

[Quevega]

Day one of the festival , you would imagine the ground would be well watered if required

Yep - The only risk is if there's a big downpour scheduled and the groundsman wets the bed after last years issue's.

He was unlucky in a way, but also guilty of not having it soft enough on the Tuesday to begin with, then he'd have been able to leave it over night into Wednesday.
Should Definitely not have to be watering on the Tuesday evening this year. Or any year really.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Day one of the festival , you would imagine the ground would be well watered if required

Watered but as soon as they stop in the morning, it starts to dry out.
Good to soft is the best they could hope for without rain I would think.
Maybe that will be ok for Nassalam, certainly hope so.

[Spectre]

There are plenty of valid points being made. But I'm sure you guys are aware that I do much more research that the Racing Post form and watch videos. It is worth saying this though, because I haven't.

I work very hard at getting information that's not in the public domain. Information that I couldn't share here. So there are other reasons that perhaps give me more confidence about my final selection that would be the case on other horses I back at the Festival.

This was was true with Happyoglucky who hit the bar two years ago. He missed the trends, not least his lack of experience with only three chases. But I used contacts, and was aware of things that we as general punters wouldn't usually be.

Galahad didn't run, possibly because a bat and ball job, so I can't say either way. But coincidentally there are a couple of people on here that know what information I had and why I selected him. Why connections changed their mind about running is a matter for them.

Tea Clipper (the mini-Naiad), last year missed a few trends and finished fourth despite lots of jumping errors. I wouldn't have put him up with the timing that I ended up with. He was just a value bet based on information I had. His price wasn't a reflection of his chances, and the price had already sailed on a more likely winner.

In all cases if you take a perfect trends fit, none would have been selections. And coincidentally, the majority of handicap winners every year don't fit all the trends. I like trends and use them as a guideline to make shortlists. But I'm not a slave to them, otherwise I'd never make money. I just use them to eliminate horse that really aren't fits at all. I'll forgive a horse missing a couple of trends, and then I'll do my own work around form and visuals, and then try to gather in all other information I can from elsewhere, and I narrow shortlists down to a selection.

For the Naiad I can focus down on doing this to obsession for just a few horses. But to do it to this extent for every horse in every handicap would be impossible.

I'm not saying this because I think anyone is having a go. I know nobody is. But it is right that I explain that the selection isn't just a case of the usual form study. That doesn't mean we have a cast iron winner, just that it may have a better chance of winning than face value, and in terms of what I know, in my estimation I expect the horse to give us an excellent run for our money.

The history of the bet is very profitable, generally meaning we at least get a place, and sometimes the winner, and almost always a very good run for our money, so I reckon all the hard yards are worth it.

For what it's worth I have a second horse bubbling up. It won't be a Naiad because there can only be one of them, but it will be as a result of the Naiad work. So if the price holds, we're recording a podcast on Friday night, and I hope to be able to let you know about that one too. It'll depend on when Kevloaf puts the podcast up though so I can't guarantee everyone will get the price at the point I put it up.

[Magpie]

Thanks for all the hard work Paul. Enjoy all your thoughts on the race and look forward to the podcast.

[Quevega]

There are plenty of valid points being made. But I'm sure you guys are aware that I do much more research that the Racing Post form and watch videos. It is worth saying this though, because I haven't.

I work very hard at getting information that's not in the public domain. Information that I couldn't share here. So there are other reasons that perhaps give me more confidence about my final selection that would be the case on other horses I back at the Festival.

This was was true with Happyoglucky who hit the bar two years ago. He missed the trends, not least his lack of experience with only three chases. But I used contacts, and was aware of things that we as general punters wouldn't usually be.

Galahad didn't run, possibly because a bat and ball job, so I can't say either way. But coincidentally there are a couple of people on here that know what information I had and why I selected him. Why connections changed their mind about running is a matter for them.

Tea Clipper (the mini-Naiad), last year missed a few trends and finished fourth despite lots of jumping errors. I wouldn't have put him up with the timing that I ended up with. He was just a value bet based on information I had. His price wasn't a reflection of his chances, and the price had already sailed on a more likely winner.

In all cases if you take a perfect trends fit, none would have been selections. And coincidentally, the majority of handicap winners every year don't fit all the trends. I like trends and use them as a guideline to make shortlists. But I'm not a slave to them, otherwise I'd never make money. I just use them to eliminate horse that really aren't fits at all. I'll forgive a horse missing a couple of trends, and then I'll do my own work around form and visuals, and then try to gather in all other information I can from elsewhere, and I narrow shortlists down to a selection.

For the Naiad I can focus down on doing this to obsession for just a few horses. But to do it to this extent for every horse in every handicap would be impossible.

I'm not saying this because I think anyone is having a go. I know nobody is. But it is right that I explain that the selection isn't just a case of the usual form study. That doesn't mean we have a cast iron winner, just that it may have a better chance of winning than face value, and in terms of what I know, in my estimation I expect the horse to give us an excellent run for our money.

The history of the bet is very profitable, generally meaning we at least get a place, and sometimes the winner, and almost always a very good run for our money, so I reckon all the hard yards are worth it.

For what it's worth I have a second horse bubbling up. It won't be a Naiad because there can only be one of them, but it will be as a result of the Naiad work. So if the price holds, we're recording a podcast on Friday night, and I hope to be able to let you know about that one too. It'll depend on when Kevloaf puts the podcast up though so I can't guarantee everyone will get the price at the point I put it up.

It's a shame what happened last year made you more cautious.

When you talk about inside information. The only thing I can imagine you may have gleaned was the intention to enter and run in the race. A few would have been anticipating this but may not have had the word from the horses mouth.

I can't think what other information you would have had that would be of value ?
Unless you've been told he's on drugs or has worked well with Charli Parcs recently !


So the Naiad BET - didn't really benefit from the information in the end as you chose to wait an extra few days, and the better price's had gone.
If you had to wait your turn so that connections could get on then that's understandable, but does mean we got sloppy seconds. Which is alright for some

Best of Luck with it anyhow.
I'm on board as I like the case made, and he's on a good mark, with potential to improve for the trip.
I would have left him off due to the no 3 mile chase run had you not put him up. But I have less in my team at present and as I said, I like the case you and Rooster have made.

If the delay was due to being polite to connections then I'd suggest waiting till declarations next year to avoid this problem, as you're good enough to pick something out from the numerous handicap entrants/declared that I'm sure we'd all have a play along with.