***DOING A NAIAD 2023*** Live Podcast Wednesday 22nd February

[Quevega]

Me and Rooster Booster had a discussion on the likely Naiad back in January and he predicted it would be Nassalam (and I spewed cos of the RPR stat).

We also discussed the difficulty of this type of plunge, as with what happened last year, Spectre would have been more cautious and sought out some assurance or nod from connections about the entry and running plans.

But equally, once you have this, you kind of need to let on what you're planning, as if they like a bet in the yard (most yards and owners do) then they would be a bit miffed if the price went from under their feet without them having money down. And could take their ball home and not declare.

It looks like on this occasion they have got some money down early, meaning the Naiad is a lower price for the forum.

But injuries aside, we should get a run for our money this year, even if he's unproven over 3 miles, which is a necessity for this race
Ain't that right doctorwu

Officially the number one stat and the first stat into the hall of fame for stats.

Good Luck Nassalam.
If he does win then the Good Doctor can officially retire.

[Exar Essay]

It's a stat that I'm certain will be broken EE. It's a matter of time.

The race is full of horses that have run over the trip each year, and most that haven't aren't really serious contenders at all, and are on an owners day out.

Nassalam is stoutly enough bred to appreciate the trip, and likely be better over it. And he already runs as though three miles is what he needs.

Thanks, Paul, Appreciate the response. I'm in, but tentatively so ...

[Spectre]

Spring ground even over the longer trip not mentioned in the reasoning a tad surprising. He shapes like he stays but he don't half get outpaced on decent ground and If like day 1 last year he might have to do a Corach on such a surface.

It was a consideration Outlaw. But he was within three lengths of a seriously well handicapped horse in on New Years Day, and would have finished ahead of him in another furlong. The Ultima will also be run half a yard slower, so whilst it was worth considering from (the many times) I watched his races back, I don't think it's an issue at all.

[nortonscoin200]

Well done Paul - fingers crossed for a Tuesday to celebrate.

[Native River]

Great fun again! I've been trying to steer clear of handicap antes and Nassalam has been on my list since he cropped up in my trend diary in October, so I'm sort of glad you forced my hand as I'd have slept through the price drop didn't even know he was into 12s in places!
MIght have to have a DNA test soon though as at this rate we might be related Spectre as that's 2 years in a row my big Ultima fancy was same as yours, just glad I didn't ruin the fun this year at least

[Istabraq]

Me and [USER="45795"] as if they like a bet in the yard (most yards and owners do) then they would be a bit miffed if the price went from under their feet without them having money down. And could take their ball home and not declare.

It looks like on this occasion they have got some money down early, meaning the Naiad is a lower price for the forum.
.

Great point this, once you have a mark you can win a big prize with as a punting owner/yard you want the price and if the price isn't there look elsewhere.
It's entirely possible this happened with Galahad Quest last year.
As Spectre said, money has come in last couple of days and even today so chances are everyone that needed to got on at the prices, much better for FJs to have a live 12/1 ticket than a dead 25/1 one....

[Istabraq]

Excellent again Spectre, parade ring area could be a Fat Jockey takeover...

[BookieBasher]

Is anyone working at Bet365 tonight

I thought they’d be the quickest to react to the Naiad

[Atlantic Viking]

Fair play Spectre, always great fun and even though in my head i'm begging you to get on with it, the build up is brilliant. I get nervous about passing tips to friends so it takes balls to put yourself out there to 200+ people, even if it's ultima-tely (lol etc...) completely our responsibility what we lump on. God speed the Naiad!

[Always a Claimer]

Thanks Gentlemen. I really appreciate your support.

I'm sorry it wasn't a bigger price, and regret not going a week ago. Galahad made me more cautious than I should have been, and I was unnecessarily double dotting the I's and double crossing the T's.

It won't matter when he wins of course

Hi Paul, fairly new to the forum as a member but have followed for a few years. Watched from afar last year, and was gutted for you all. So appreciate the patience this year. Great drama, great video and great reasoning, and seeing the blue on Oddschecker immediately afterwards was superb! Managed to get 17.51/1 at WH and will enjoy the ride whatever it brings. Also delighted it’s day one, as it’s the day I am always there and hadn’t really focused too much on the handicaps, so nicely fills a gap for me. Top man and I really hope it lands for you (and me, obviously!)

[Carnage at Taunton]

Is anyone working at Bet365 tonight

I thought they’d be the quickest to react to the Naiad

Still at 12 if anyone interested

[Outlaw]

It was a consideration Outlaw. But he was within three lengths of a seriously well handicapped horse in on New Years Day, and would have finished ahead of him in another furlong. The Ultima will also be run half a yard slower, so whilst it was worth considering from (the many times) I watched his races back, I don't think it's an issue at all.

Well if it's anything like last years ground in the Ultima that was run at a stronger sectionals throughout on furlong averages than New years day and certainly won't be slower, The Nov Gold cup was run at a similar(nats knacker quicker) splits and that's the one where he looked to struggle when the tempo increased rapidly(sub 13 splits) even prior to the obstruction. Now you prob don't give two toots about sectionals but I can't help but feel a bit of juice in it will help him more than many.

[Spectre]

Well if it's anything like last years ground in the Ultima that was run at a stronger sectionals throughout on furlong averages than New years day and certainly won't be slower, The Nov Gold cup was run at a similar(nats knacker quicker) splits and that's the one where he looked to struggle when the tempo increased rapidly(sub 13 splits) even prior to the obstruction. Now you prob don't give two toots about sectionals but I can't help but feel a bit of juice in it will help him more than many.

It very possibly will Outlaw. But if they go at a pace would you concede that may help him too. Just like it did Corach Rambler last year?

I think he's pretty versatile with regards ground, and the extra distance also helps. I doubt it'll be any faster than good to soft by the third race of the Festival this year anyway, because the new clerk of the course won't make the same mistake again. That was the fastest ground we've had for a number of years. I suspect we'll be racing on the soft side of good to soft for the Ultima if there's no rain around.

[Many Clouds]

Thanks Spectre really appreciate the hard work put into this. I haven't backed many Handicap horses antepost so gone for a decent stake on this one 50pts at 16s & 12s bring on the Nassalam!!!

[Lobos]

Thanks Spectre really appreciate the hard work put into this. I haven't backed many Handicap horses antepost so gone for a decent stake on this one 50pts at 16s & 12s bring on the Nassalam!!!

Holy shit !